Divisional Weekend: Everything to play for, for the those who are left...
As the Divisional Weekend comes around the reality has started to settle for all those remaining teams. Three wins and they are Superbowl champions, it certainly sounds doable but the next four weeks will test rosters abilities to adapt, seize the initiative and realise no game is out of reach. There is certainly plenty to talk about this week with the coaching carousel in full spin and playoff matchups galore, but the best starting point this week is the return to 2002 for the Oakland Raiders, so that is where we are going to start...
1) Welcome back to the Bay Area John Gruden
After 15 years and with the agony of the snow game still likely fresh in his Raiders memory, John Gruden finally gets the opportunity to write a better history for his Raiders legacy. This will be a fascinating story to watch due to Mark Davis's known admiration for him, the fact that he has spent the last 9 years in a presentation booth and the fact the Raiders are soon moving to Vegas. Gruden has inherited a team that has a lot of talent, so it will be interesting to follow his approach over the next few months. In firing Jack Del Rio, Mark Davis has placed a lot of faith in Gruden's ability to unify his roster and get the most out of the talent assembled. Gruden is no stranger to controversy and he is likely to instil a discipline that the Raiders certainly need. Will it do the trick? Only time will tell...
2) Was that the last game Alex Smith played for the Chiefs?
Last weekend's ending was eerily predictable for the Chiefs during Andy Reid and Alex Smith's tenure with the team. Too often the Chiefs have impressed in regular season only to fall flat in the playoffs. It is certainly not all Smith's fault, but what these games have proven is the limitations that Smith has under center. He is a manager of one's offense, dinking and dunking through defenders rather than taking the roof of a secondary. Smith is exceptional at what he does but when you come up against the best, the margin for error in his brand of football is even smaller than the rest. Given what has transpired over the past five years or so and with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings, it is difficult to see the Chiefs bringing him back next season. With the vertical nature of an NFL offense now vital to success at the highest level of the NFL these days, Smith is not the QB who is likely to lead a team to Superbowl. What he can do however, is guide a team that is led by its defense for example. Slot him into a team like the Jags or Broncos and he could easily turn a team into a Superbowl contender. Ultimately it is just his time in Kansas City that is likely up and it will be interesting to see where he goes next if that is indeed the case.
3) Who are the most interesting coaching candidate on the carousel this year?
There has been plenty of chatter in the past week about hot coaching candidates with old and new faces taking the spotlight of the media for those drifting away from playoff action. The most intriguing candidates certainly come from the New England tree of coaching with Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel (Former Pats Linebacker) all seen as viable candidates for the remaining coaching openings this year. Let's look at each in slight more depth:
Josh McDaniels - The most polarising and perhaps most gifted of the three coaches on this list. McDaniels in his time as Patriots offensive coordinator and Broncos head coach has proven his ability to adapt with his personnel and get the most out of his offense. McDaniels is especially well known for his preparation, his use of deception and his ability to attack any small weakness that he can find in a defense. Crucial to his NFL head coaching candidacy will be understanding whether he has learned from his mistakes in Denver. Any team with a young developing QB under center will be especially interested in McDaniels as he has a proven ability in getting the best out of his signal caller.
Matt Patricia - The former rocket scientist has certainly been turning heads over the past few years as Belichick's defensive enforcer. He is an intelligent, diligent and creative schemer of defenses who finally looks like he may get the chance to shine as the front man of an NFL club. There is always a chance that his success in New England will be difficult to reproduce elsewhere, but it is hard to see Patricia remaining a defensive coordinator beyond February this year. Any team with a renewed focus on defense is likely to at least interview Patricia this month.
Mike Vrabel - The most inexperienced candidate of the three. Vrabel is seen by many to come straight out of the Belichick school of coaching due to his success as a Patriot and the respect that he demands in the locker room. Many wonder why he is so high up coaching lists due to his inexperience as a coach (only one year as DC) and his lack of success so far, but Vrabel is a classic case of where he is considered to have all the right attributes to be a successful head coach so if a team wants him they need to grab him now. Look for teams with a defensive focus to take a good look at this former Patriot (Lions, Giants, and Cardinals).
Postseason player of the Week
Offensive Player of the Week: Derrick Henry (RB, Titans) - With Demarco Murray out due to injury the buck fell on the second year man to deliver for the Titans and boy did he. Henry rushed for 156 yards on 23 carries, moving the chains on offense and icing the game in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter. A key performance in a vital match-up for the Titans offense, they will be looking for more of the same this weekend.
Defensive Player of the Week: Deion Jones (LB, Falcons) - The second year linebacker was everywhere for the Falcons on Saturday night. With many key defensive plays led by Jones (including two tackles for a loss and a key pass defensed in the fourth quarter), his ability to be in the right place at the right time has made the Falcons defense incredibly tough to break through. There were certainly more obvious standout performances, but it is tough to argue against the value that Jones had to the Falcons defense on Saturday night.
Postseason predictions
Record last week: 3-1
Overall record since week 1: 67%
Divisional Round predictions:
ATL@PHI
Key to victory for Falcons - The key to the game for the Falcons is going to sound eerily similar to last week’s effort. Against the Rams they proved their defense has improved greatly this season causing fits for the most improved offense in the NFL, look for this to continue this weekend against Nick Foles. The key for the Falcons is again their offense however, protecting the football and Matt Ryan is vital to their chances of winning this one. Without Carson Wentz the Eagles are unlikely to keep pace in a shootout, so that is what the Falcons must look to do.
Key to victory for Eagles - The key for the Eagles will be keeping the ball away from the Atlanta offense. Without Carson Wentz their vertical game is likely to be less successful but there is still plenty of talent on this team starting with the two running backs Ajayi and Blount. If the Eagles can control the clock, they should be able to make this a game that they can win.
Score Prediction: 30-17; With Wentz under center this would likely have been a very different result. The Eagles struggles at the end of the regular season will have been in part due to winning their division. What worries me more though is without Wentz can they stretch the field enough to threaten the Falcons? It will certainly be interesting to watch, but Matt Ryan and company are likely to be too much for them in this one.
TEN@NE
Key to victory for Titans - Continue the magic of last weekend and control the clock. The Titans were extremely lucky to beat the Chiefs and they are going to need some of that magic and skill from Marcus Mariota if they hope to do the same in Foxborough. However, more realistically they are going to need to control the clock in this one. Keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands is the most sure-fire way to keep oneself in the game. If they can control the possession battle in this one, they should have a chance.
Key to victory for Patriots - Make life as difficult as they can for the Titans offense. We all know Tom Brady on his day can take over any playoff game and render an opposition next to useless, but the Titans know they are likely to have more success when they have the ball. Although their early season issues seem to have been rectified, it is important for the Patriots defense to stand up be counted. The Titans certainly do pose a threat, so their ability to handle their offense will be vital to giving Tom Brady the best platform to succeed.
Score Prediction: 17-31; This has the potential to be the most one sided of the games this weekend. The Titans certainly have a chance especially with Mariota under center, but it is difficult to see the Patriots not dispatching them in this one. With a better offense and potentially stronger defense, it is hard to see the Titans getting to close to them at Gillette Stadium.
JAX@PIT
Key to victory for Jags - Taking their chances is vital for the Jags in this game. We all know the defense is likely to provide Blake Bortles & company with the opportunity to score in this game, taking their opportunities will be the difference maker. Blake Bortles is much improved this season and with the Steelers likely selling out on stopping Leonard Fournette he is going to have to step up in this one. Against the Steelers one needs to score points, so taking advantage of those short fields is a must for this Jaguars team.
Key to victory for Steelers - Executing on offense is the key for the Steelers in this game. Coming up against a dominant defense, the Steelers will need to be more efficient and use their speed as a weapon in this one. The match-up that this game hinges on is Steelers O v Jags D, and for one of the best offenses in football over the last five years or so that should come as no surprise.
Score Prediction: 20-27; A match-up between two teams who are almost polar opposites. The Jags defense is likely to threaten the Steelers in this game, but it is the reverse of this match-up that suggests the Steelers will likely have the edge. With a likely meeting against the Patriots in Foxborough as the prize, I think the Steelers will be looking to take march on and get their shot at redemption for the last 10 years or so.
NO@MIN
Key to victory for Saints - A very different game for the Saints this week as they come up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Although Drew Brees and the offense will be vital to their chances, I think the defensive front seven is the key to the Saints winning this game. Case Keenum & company have been moving the ball with ease so far this season, taking manageable chunks out of opposition defenses whilst not seeming too threatened. If the Saints can force his hand on Sunday night, they may be able to force errors which the offense can exploit.
Key to victory for Vikings - Everyone knows the Vikings defense is their calling card and they are key to their success in this one. Their offense has certainly been productive, but much of their success has been predicated on the excellent opportunities provided by the defense. This weekend they come up against one of the best offenses in the NFL and winning the battle of field position and turnovers will be vital to keeping this game manageable for the Viking offense.
Score Prediction: 30-24; I am likely predicting against the bookies here and I have a couple of reasons why. As good as Case Keenum has been this season, I am still unconvinced that he can go head to head with Drew Brees should this game stretch into a track meet which it could quite easily do. The other less scientific reason is simply no Superbowl host city has ever played in their 'home' city Superbowl. With Minnesota hosting the Superbowl, history does not seem to be on their side.
