Week 1: The Beginning
Good evening all and welcome to an Englishman's thoughts from across the pond. In this blogspace I intend to discuss some of the key sports trends from both sides of the Atlantic; fairly, objectively and with some reasoned thought. I start with the NFL as it is a sport I have grown up with, have a good level of understanding in and strangely enough kicks off tonight. If you have got this far good luck to you and I hope I can provide something interesting to think about as the start of the season begins, so without further ado I present An Englishman's Thoughts From Across the Pond.......
Ever since I was young I have been fascinated by how the sports news cycle works, sportsman (rightly or wrongly) much like politicians have every piece of their lives scrutinised for the world to see so I intend to produce as much fact as I can with as little embellishment or rumour providing what I hope is a reasoned judgement on an aspect I may discuss.
The first topic of discussion today is Key Themes for the NFL Season:
As with every year the NFL brings a plethora of stories to think and this season is no different. Can anyone prevent the Patriots from winning a third Superbowl in four years? Will Adrian Peterson rediscover his best form? Which team will rise up from the ashes of defeat and challenge for the Vince Lombardi Trophy this year? In this section every week I intend to outline and progress on some of these topics and generate an interesting discussion around them. Below are some of my key themes for the NFL Season as the Patriots are set to start the defence of their 2016/17 title:
Will the Patriots and Tom Brady deny father time and claim his 7th Vince Lombardi Trophy?
Almost every writer or pundit would have written off Tom Brady and the Patriots years ago traditionally; focusing on age, salary cap limitations and the nature of the NFL system. Time and time again, Brady, Belichick and the Patriots brass have proven us wrong. Brady's generous salary cap donations, efficient drafting, innovative scheming and the lure of championships continue to keep the Patriots right in the thick of it. They have a brand new receiving corps with the addition of Brandin Cooks & Phillip Dorsett, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and a defence that has only got better with the addition of Stephen Gilmore to play alongside Malcolm Butler (at least for this year). Having said that don't expect it to go all their way. Julian Edelman is out for the season, the Raiders and Steelers are both extremely trendy picks to unseat them and they will have a target on their backs. I expect them to contend but ultimately lose out to the rising Raiders in the end...
How will the Falcons react to the biggest collapse in Superbowl History?
It is difficult to deny the fact that the Falcons dropped the ball losing a 25 point lead in February. It is also difficult to argue that it has not affected them to some extent especially as there were some mental errors made in the last 10 minutes of the game. But this loss I would argue is likely to motivate them to contend even more this year. Matt Ryan's press conference straight after the Superbowl showed the focus and determination he had to return to the Superbowl and his new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian should allow the offence to return to its elite level this year. What really gives this team a chance though is the defence. The first half of the Superbowl showed the potential of this group and with the draft additions and return of Desmond Trufant at the back end, expect the Falcons to return to the playoffs and challenge the premier teams in the NFC for the right to play in Minnesota in February.
Which team will finally step off and claim a playoff spot after years of mediocrity?
The NFL prides itself on levelling the playing field and this year will be no different. The Titans are my pick for this for a plethora of reasons.
1) Marcus Mariotta is slowly proving himself to be a franchise quarterback. There was a very interesting article in Sports Illustrated this week about his progress
2) Two headed running back tandem of Murray and Henry
3) Emerging defence
4) Weakness of the AFC South
Is it finally the Raiders year after they announce leaving to Las Vegas?
It is hard not to point out the cruelty of sport when Derek Carr broke his femur at the end of last season, ending their fairy-tale run into the playoffs. Sadly the move to Vegas couldn't be more poorly timed for Oakland fans as this team is primed for a serious run over the next few years. An MVP calibre QB, strong WR tandem (Cooper & Crabtree) and an evolving defence led by Khalil Mack means this team is again primed to challenge in the AFC West and push on towards the Superbowl. Combine this with the fact they have a ton of cap room and it is difficult to bet against the rise of the Raiders.
How will Ezekiel Elliott's impending suspension fight affect the Cowboys in the NFC East?
There is no point in delving into the politics of the NFL too deeply but this is a mess for all parties no matter how you see it. Assuming Elliott serves his suspension at some point this year (that is a big if), Dallas will certainly struggle to dominate the NFC East. The Eagles have provided Carson Wentz with weapons to challenge teams vertically this year, Kirk Cousins is more motivated than ever to prove he belongs this year and well the Giants are the Giants. No one knows who will turn up but Eli Manning always gives them a chance. I predict Dak Preskott and Dallas may struggle should Elliott find himself on the side-lines for an extended period of time.
What is the new inefficiency NFL teams will exploit?
Speed and the no huddle offence. This in itself is not a new thought, teams have run the no huddle at times throughout games for a long time but I expect some of the more tactically astute teams to use this as a whole game tactic. Both New England and Atlanta proved in the Superbowl the success of it in prolonged periods and it is a very effective way of keeping defences off balance. So watch out for the more frequent use of the no huddle...
How will the Browns fair in Year 2 of their new regime?
After the arrival of Paul dePodesta and Sashi Brown the Browns finally look like they are starting to understand value in the NFL. The hoarding of draft picks and release of free agents suggest the Browns have understood the commodity they have. Odds are the more draft picks you have, the more likely you are to pick worthwhile players. Year 2 is likely to still be a relatively ugly football product, but they have some great young pieces, a talented young QB in DeShone Kizer and they finally have buy in from ownership. Expect the Browns to be pushing for contention in 2018
Which coach will be the first to be fired?
Ron Rivera. People may have forgotten that he was on the hot seat prior to their Superbowl season. Carolina have struggled to recapture that form ever since and with an erratic Cam Newton and a defence that can't generate enough pressure to compensate for its weakness at the back end, I believe time may be ticking in Carolina.
Who will claim various yearly awards?
MVP: Matt Ryan, Falcons
Offensive Player of the Year: David Johnson, Cardinals
Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Defensive Rookie of the Year: T.J. Watt, Steelers
Coach of the Year: Dan Quinn, Falcons
Week 1 Match Predictions:
KC@NE: Score prediction 24-34; At Gillette Stadium opening night it is difficult to bet against the Patriots. The key for the Chiefs will be how they control the ball. Keep Brady off the field and they have a chance. Unfortunately for them they still may not be enough
NYJ@BUF: Score prediction 17-21; This is not likely to be the greatest game of football. Both teams are rebuilding to a certain extent but with the Jets focus likely on 2018, the Bills offence through Shady McCoy and Tyrod Taylor should be able to do enough
ATL@CHI: Score prediction 34-14; What a great game for the Falcons to break their Superbowl collapse. Matt Ryan and the offence should be able torch this secondary and there is definitely a gulf in class between the two sides
BAL@CIN: Score prediction 14-24; Big division rivalry week one. With Joe Flacco's status up in the air, I'd expect the Bengals to have enough power the make the Ravens play for their lack of firepower
PIT@CLE: Score prediction 34-21; This game will be closer than many predict. Ultimately the 3B's will be too much for the evolving but young Cleveland defence
ARI@DET: Score prediction 34-31; This is one of the two games of the week (both in the NFC). Carson Palmer will be itching to prove his doubters wrong and Matthew Stafford now has a target on his back given that he is the highest paid player in NFL history. Expect the Cardinals defence led by hybrid safety Tyrann Mathieu to be the difference in this game
JAX@HOU: Score prediction 17-24; Both teams are looking for the offences to generate some momentum this season. This game will however be decided by Houston's suffocating defence and fearsome defensive front
OAK@TEN: Score prediction 28-24; AFC game of the week. Two of the best young teams go up against each other. Expect the Oakland defence to be the edge in what could be a very high scoring game
PHI@WAS: Score prediction 24-20; Carson Wentz and his new weapons are just going to pip this one. Washington's offseason and the strange retirement of Su'a Cravens is not going to help them
IND@LA: Score prediction 17-14; Going to be a struggle of a game with Andrew Luck's status in doubt. Expect the Colts to scratch this one out
SEA@GB: Score prediction 31-34; Other NFC game of the week. Two of the top three NFC teams facing off against each other. Expect the Packers offence to make the difference in this one
CAR@SF: Score prediction 20-24; Kyle Shanahan's debut is going to go better than expected. The San Francisco defence is better than people think and his creative offence is going to provide enough points for them to just win this game
NYG@DAL: Score prediction 24-27; With Elliott currently available for week one, expect the Cowboys to control the clock well enough to just win this game
NO@MIN: Score prediction 21-24; Adrian Peterson returns to Minnesota week one but won't get the return he wants. New Orleans still lacks the defence to stop teams putting up points
LAC@DEN: Score prediction 31-27; Major upset alert. Expect Phillip Rivers and company to be extremely motivated to return to the playoffs. Denver currently lacks the offensive firepower to seriously compete for the playoffs
Thank you for reading my opening attempt and I hope you enjoy the opening weekend as much as I do!
RON
