Week 10: A few contenders emerge from the pack
Good afternoon sports fans and welcome to another post from across the pond. Week 9 continued to provide fantastic headlines for all sports fans out there with the Redskins comeback, the Cowboys sudden consistency and a Giant spanking being the headlines of choice. Sadly off the field, the injury bug has struck again with DeShaun Watson out for the season and Colts QB Andrew Luck officially shut down before his season had even started. Week 10 promises to provide some further clarity to the blurred playoff races in both conferences with plenty still up for grabs. So without further ado, let's dive in to this week's key questions...
1) How does DeShaun Watson's cruel injury affect the Texans and their plans for 2017?
If the JJ Watt injury wasn't sad enough for Texans, the news that DeShaun Watson tore his ACL in practice last Thursday is a hammer blow to all Texans fans and realistically their playoff chances for 2017. The rookie QB sensation had arguably gone toe to toe with at least two of the greatest QB's of this generation and had been given high praise by both men (Brady and Wilson). Sadly his injury would suggest a change of tactic may be needed by the Texans front office. With Tom Savage taking over as starting QB and the loss to the quarterback-less Colts proving the point, the Texans may be best served using 2017 to benefit 2018. As their team adjusts to life without two of their most recognizable players, Texans officials should be eyeing up the talent in the draft and focusing on fixing holes for what will definitely be a playoff run in 2018. As of now their two biggest needs are help along the offensive line (not helped by the trade of Duane Brown) and depth in the secondary. Expect the future to be the focus for the Texans until further notice.
2) The LA Rams you're current leaders in the NFC West. How has this improvement come to pass so quickly?
This wonderful story has been brewing all season, with the Rams again taking a joint lead in the NFC West after the Seahawks loss last week. The most obvious improvement for the Rams in 2017 is jointly their Quarterback and Wide Receiver play. Jared Goff looks like a completely different man this year in new coach Sean McVay's offense; moving the chains, keeping the offense in rhythm and punishing both good defense and bad defense equally. Aiding this is the wide receiver pick-ups the front office has made so far this year, first round draft choice Cooper Kupp, free agent addition Robert Woods and trade pick-up Sammy Watkins have proven to be a godsend for the young QB especially in gaining yards after the catch and actually catching the football. Offensive improvement (McVay's specialty) has been the name of their success so far with the speed of their success owed to the fact the Rams had already built a playoff calibre defense ready to compete when the other side of the football caught up.
3) Can the Jets compete for a playoff spot in the 2017?
The Jets are certainly looking a lot more competitive than most people predicted this year including myself. Is it enough to compete for a playoff spot? There is now enough evidence to at least provide an argument both ways.
Positives:
a) QB Josh McCowan's play - he is controlling the ball well, keeping turnovers low and taking necessary chances downfield when the opportunity arises
b) Running game - With Matt Forte and Bilal Powell providing an effective one-two punch, they certainly have the ability to move the ball and keep the ball out of the hands of opposing quarterbacks.
c) Defense - It is much improved although this may have something to do with Todd Bowles scheme. What is undeniable however is the increased pressure they have managed to generate on the QB and the improved coverage they have shown in the secondary so far.
d) Current losses - The Jets have the lowest point margin differential in all their losses. This suggests that they have been competing in every game and therefore could mount a playoff challenge.
Negatives:
a) Focus of the front office - Clearly the Jets front office are and should be looking to the future with general talent on the team below where a playoff calibre team should be. Considering they have gutted the roster over the last 12 months, a few more losses would only continue to boost their chances down the road and add to their draft capital now.
b) QB of the future - The Jets may have found their QB for now, but there is no clear idea of who may replace Josh McCowan down the road. Until they answer this question their ability to compete in the playoffs will always have a big question mark.
c) Can they realistically make it out of the AFC East? - They still have to get past New England (and Buffalo again). With their strength of schedule in the lower half of the NFL (potentially meaning there wins have come against weaker teams) until they prove they can beat the champions it is difficult to see them making it out of their own division.
There are certainly plenty of positives for Jets fans to think about this season and certainly many more than they may be expecting. Ultimately however, unless something drastically changes the Jets simply do not have the talent to beat their main division opponents and without those head to head victories the playoffs seem like an unlikely finishing point.
4) Career altering drive for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins?
Time to give a few sentences to what was for all intents and purposes, the Redskins season on the line on Sunday night. After Russel Wilson managed to score and take the lead with two minutes and change to go, Kirk Cousins led the offense on their drive of the season so far, torching a stingy Seahawks defense in under a minute to retake the lead. Consider that if they had lost that game they would have been 3-5 at the halfway point (now obviously 4-4) with tough match-ups against the Vikings and Saints to come in the next fortnight. Now Washington can take confidence into their home game against the Vikings knowing a strong fortnight can lead them squarely into the thick of the NFC wildcard race. A further bonus for Cousins may be that his new contract may be that much closer to being offered to him after that display in Seattle.
5) What will happen to Eli Manning, Ben McAdoo and Jerry Reese this offseason?
The Giants season has been nothing short of a mess. All three of the above are to blame to some degree and it is now difficult to picture a scenario where Giants ownership doesn't decide to start with a clean slate in 2018. Barring a significant turnaround Eli's position and Ben McAdoo's coaching job seem to be the most under threat. With a potential high pick and at least four first round grade QB's in the upcoming draft, the Giants GM (whoever that may be) could potentially make that call. McAdoo is in an even worse position considering he took over with former coach Tom Coughlin's staff still relatively intact. With this poor run of form, the whole coaching staff is likely to be in trouble. Jerry Reese's position is less clear given his two Superbowl rings and makeover of the defense last season. What isn't up for debate is they lack depth and weapons on the offensive line and in the wide receiving corps respectively. The Giants may be able to save face, but time is definitely running out for these G-Men.
6) Lucky no. 6 for the Saints. Are they now the team to beat in the NFC South?
How things have changed for Drew Brees over the last six weeks. With the Saints starting slow out of the gate he must have thought there was a chance this roster was doomed to repeat the 7-9 finishes from the two previous years. The difference this year is the Saints started winning and finally have a defense capable of keeping them in a game. With a revamped front seven led by the ever present Cam Jordan and a secondary that can finally lock down receivers due to the draft addition of Marshon Lattimore amongst other things, Drew Brees is particularly excited. It is their first six game winning streak since 2009, he has a passing game that is capable of stretching the field, a running game led by two pro-bowl quality runners and a defense capable of creating turnovers. Sound familiar? This is the blueprint the NFC South winners of the last two years (Panthers & Falcons) perfected, even if it was for a short period of time. At this current moment the Saints are certainly the team to beat in the NFC South, but the divisional race is by no means finished considering the Panthers are 1/2 a game back and the Falcons are only two games back. Momentum is certainly on their side and it will be interesting to see how they progress given the number of divisional games left to play.
7) Where do the Colts go from here with Andrew Luck shutdown for the season?
So we finally received the long expected news that Andrew Luck would be shut down for the rest of the year. It is an incredibly disappointing situation for all stakeholders involved as shoulder injuries have cost him the best part of three years of his career now, in his prime. Hopefully with proper rest and rehab he will be ready to fire in 2018. The direction for the Colts is then clear, even if it is slightly against helping Chuck Pagano's job security. As has been mentioned in previous weeks there is a talent deficit in this roster especially on defense. Gaining draft capital, developing young players and allowing them an opportunity to thrive in the next half-season should be the focus for GM Chris Ballard. The Colts need some high draft picks, Andrew Luck needs more talent around him and a rebuild should allow them to take the proverbial 'weight' off his shoulders.
8) Mid-season awards watch, MVP:
Over the next few weeks I will be profiling the various contenders for awards throughout the NFL, this week I will be focusing on what promises to be an MVP race that goes down to the wire. It may seem like I am stating the obvious but there is certainly a correlation between the success of the players at the games most important position and the team he plays for. Somehow I think this trend is likely to continue...
-1) Carson Wentz (QB, Eagles): Wentz's candidacy as a front runner in this MVP race is not surprising given his success so far this season and more importantly his team’s success. He is in the top five for all key passer stats (Yards, TD's & Rating), he has shown a dramatic improvement from his rookie season and is leading the top offense in the NFL. He is doing this all whilst dealing with the mantle of being the No2 pick in the draft. The award is likely his if the Eagles keep setting this pace for the rest of the year.
-2) Alex Smith (QB, Chiefs): Having always been deemed replaceable (see 49ers, drafting of Mahomes), Alex Smith has slowly proven this season he is more than just a game manager. Until last week he hadn't even thrown an interception, he is also in the top five in all key passer stats and has led his team to key victories in the first nine weeks of the season. Two things that may perhaps limit his candidacy going forward are the team’s recent slide in the standings and the strength of the Chiefs running game so far.
-3) Tom Brady (QB, Patriots): Difficult to say a huge amount that hasn't already been said about Tom Brady. He is having another fantastic season, he is in the top five for all key QB stats and continues to lead the Patriots to victory almost every week. The reason he isn't higher is this is largely expected from one of greatest players of all time.
-4) Russel Wilson (QB, Seahawks): Wilson has proven time and again that he is one of the best players in the league. He may not be the most traditional drop back passer (largely due to the pressure he faces on the offensive line) but he wins games and always seems to play his best when the game is on the line. This Seahawks squad is becoming more and more reliant on his abilities to win games, if he continues at his current pace he may be a real force in the MVP race by season's end.
-5) Drew Brees (QB, Saints): As mentioned above the Saints are winning and Drew Brees is a key reason for this. Just remember there is more than one QB past their late 30's who is capable of putting up points in a hurry.
9) Mid-season playoff predictions, AFC:
Difficult to see anyone breaking the stranglehold that the Patriots and Steelers have had on the AFC. Behind them the Chiefs should be able to hold onto the AFC West and I am currently backing the Titans to edge out the Jags in the AFC South. Don't be surprised to see the Jags and Ravens in the wildcard race, but from what I have seen so far the balanced Bills roster and Derek Carr led Raiders seem most likely to take those spots at the moment.
One seed: Patriots
Two seed: Steelers
Three seed: Chiefs
Four seed: Titans
Wildcard: Bills
Wildcard: Raiders
10) Mid-season playoff predictions, NFC:
After the Eagles, Saints and winner of the NFC West (I have currently gone Seahawks) things are much harder to predict. With issues surrounding all teams in the NFC North I have simply chosen the Vikings who seem to be performing despite all their injuries. With the Rams doing well and likely to keep pace with the Seahawks that leaves the Cowboys, Panthers, Lions, Redskins and Falcons to battle it out for the last playoff spot. I would have backed the Cowboys considering they had finally found some consistency but in the light of Elliott’s reinstated suspension, I think the Redskins may just sneak that final playoff spot at this point.
One seed: Eagles
Two seed: Saints
Three seed: Seahawks
Four seed: Vikings
Wildcard: Rams
Wildcard: Redskins
Players of the week:
Offensive Player of the Week:
Andrew Whitworth (OT, Rams) - Kudos to both Kirk Cousins (mentioned above) and Whitworth's teammate Jared Goff who both had wonderful standout games themselves. However, Whitworth gets the award because he kept his quarterback clean all day (not hits/pressures/sacks allowed according to Pro Football Focus), he beautifully blocked in front of Robert Woods for a 52 yard score and he has helped fix what was one of the worst lines in football last year.
Defensive Player of the Week:
Jordan Jenkins (LB, Jets) - There were certainly a few candidates for this award with the entire Redskin and Saints defenses definitely deserving some recognition after dominant displays. Jenkins performance stood out to me however as he was playing in a divisional rivalry game, against a favoured opposition, in a young defense looking for leaders on the team. He responded with two vital sacks of Bills QB Tyrod Taylor, including one in the fourth quarter that forced a fumble and iced the game. Not a bad statement for this second year line-backer to make.
Score Predictions:
Last week: 7-6
Overall record since week 1: 63%
SEA@ARI: 31-17; Used to be an incredibly difficult divisional match-up to call. Without Carson Palmer the Cardinals will struggle to move the ball against this Seahawks defense.
NO@BUF: 28-21; One of the potential games of the week. Buffalo's defense certainly has the talent to challenge Drew Brees & company, where this game will be won is the battle between the New Orleans defense and the Buffalo offense. I am giving the edge to the Saints in this one.
GB@CHI: 17-28; Brett Hundley really struggled last week which was a surprise to many given the bye week he had to get ready for the Lions. I'd expect him to be better this week, but with the Bears rushing attack and improving defense I think this will still be a Packer loss.
CLE@DET: 17-30; I think the Browns are still going to remain winless after this one. Although the Lions have been inconsistent, at home with the crowd behind them should enable them to stay ahead of the Browns.
PIT@IND: 31-14; As discussed for weeks now, without Andrew Luck the Colts are always going to struggle. Expect Big Ben and the Steeler offense to put up a few points this week.
LAC@JAC: 24-21; A potential bogey game for the Jags. With Phillip Rivers and company coming to town after their bye week, the Chargers should be ready to fire on all cylinders. Blake Bortles still hasn't convinced me that he has the talent to win games on his own. With this defense he may not need to, but I think the Chargers may sneak this one.
NYJ@TB: 21-17; With Jamies Winston banged up and a Jets defense that is forcing turnovers I believe the Bucs may lose this one. This should be a close contest but I have more faith in a Josh McCowan led offense, than I do in a Winston (or back-up) led offense at this current time.
CIN@TEN: 20-28; Vital game for the Titans to keep pace in the AFC South. I believe Marcos Mariota will be the difference in this game, but don't be surprised if the Bengals turn up and win this one in Tennessee.
MIN@WAS: 21-24; The Vikings have done impressively well so far, especially considering they are playing with their third string quarterback. The Redskins pose a tough challenge however, especially at home due to their passing game and ability to create pressure with their front seven. Given they are at home and on a high after last week, I am going to give them the edge in this one.
HOU@LAR: 17-31; How cruel a week can be. With the news that DeShaun Watson tore his ACL in practice last week, the Texans playoff chances have taken a complete nose dive. There is no rest for the wicked and facing a Rams team that is firing on all cylinders right now, I expect that they won't be able to put up enough points to compete in this one.
DAL@ATL: 21-30; How the Falcons have capitulated from their early season form. With Elliott's status up in the air and the Falcons offense almost back to firing on all cylinders, expect this to be an incredibly close contest. If Elliott plays I would back the Cowboys, given that he currently isn't likely to pay I will give the edge to the Falcons.
NYG@SF: 20-28; A prediction that is potentially against the odds. With the Giants struggling massively and 49ers improving slowly week by week, I anticipate this may be the first win of the Shanahan era. Don't be surprised if I am wrong, but with the way Eli Manning is being protected by his offensive line, the 49ers may be able to force enough pressure to create turnovers and win the game.
NE@DEN: 31-17; Two years ago, this would have been a match-up for all NFL fans to savour. Due to the state of the Broncos QB roster, this game isn't likely to be particularly close. Expect the Broncos defense to give Brady a few issues, but New England are too good to let it deter them for four quarters.
MIA@CAR: 14-28; Another team marred by quarterback injuries. Jay Cutler certainly looked better last week, but at home in front of his home crowd I'd expect Cam Newton to lead his Panthers to victory.
