Week 12: The Arrival of Thanksgiving provides a yardstick for teams to measure themselves against
Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of 'An Englishman's Thoughts from Across the Pond'. Happy Thanksgiving to all those celebrating from across the Atlantic and there should be great excitement for this week’s schedule given the number of divisional and rivalry games being played this weekend. Last week provided a few shocks with another loss for the Chiefs and another member of the 'Legion of Boom' being lost to injury. However, it is not the NFL if we are not moving forwards, so without further ado let's dive into this week's key themes:
1) Jerry Jones/Roger Goodell update
As mentioned last week there seemed to be a growing stalemate between one of the league’s most influential owners and the NFL Commissioner regarding his contract extension. Suffice it to say the rest of the owners (although Jones claimed otherwise) don't seem to have taken too kindly to his actions/words and have responded in kind supporting the contract extension of Roger Goodell. Ultimately they see this issue as already closed due to the fact the owners had already agreed to support the extension and in their joint statement to Jones they refer to not wanting to 'subvert the league's constitution,' nor 'deprive the ownership of this opportunity to address the league's direction'. I am certain this is not the end of the discussion but it will be intriguing to see what happens after Thanksgiving. For those who are interested, those with knowledge of the situation suggest Goodell's base salary is in the region of $4million with approximately 88% of his potential compensation tied to bonuses relating to the new collective bargaining agreement, TV ratings and gross revenue.
2) Are the Chargers legitimate contenders in the AFC West?
With a 4-2 record in the previous six weeks and the smallest losing margin in the games prior to that, the Chargers have finally got some credit that they may be a threat in the AFC West after all. The Chiefs certainly deserve a mention after their complete meltdown after their 6-0 start, but Anthony Lynn's squad certainly deserve some credit for toughing out a slow start. Are the Chargers really contenders in the AFC West? These three thoughts should help you figure this out:
A) The schedule looks comparatively easy with one match-up against the Chiefs still remaining and the only other match-up against a team with a .500 record or better coming this weekend. If the Chargers want to prove they are a playoff team, they certainly have the schedule to enable them to do so.
B) Their defensive front led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa is a force of nature west of Jacksonville - The aforementioned defensive duo have made life very difficult for teams so far and turns the Chargers defense into a weapon that could provide good field position for Phillip Rivers and company.
C) The injury bug hasn't struck yet - In the last couple of seasons the Chargers roster has been gutted by injuries especially on the offensive side of the ball. With weapons such as Keenan Allen currently healthy their chances of catching the Chiefs are that little bit higher.
Ultimately there is still plenty of time left in the race for the AFC West crown. What the Chargers have proven so far is that there is no reason why any team can't get themselves back in a divisional race. It will be interesting to see whether they can overhaul the Chiefs in the coming weeks.
3) How have the Falcons saved their season?
With their defeat of the Seahawks on Monday night, the Falcons have made the point that they intend to be a factor this season as well. The blueprint to their success in Seattle is simply an evolution of the roster that made the Superbowl last year. Matt Ryan although not spectacular made the plays when it counted and didn't turn over the football, they used their running backs to great effect and their defense proved just good enough to make a big play when it counted. With this approach the Falcons may be able to make themselves a force to be reckoned with down the stretch, but in order to make that happen there are two things that they need to fix. Firstly much like the Superbowl they need to work out how to close a game, good teams like the Patriots or Seahawks will come for you if you allow them the opportunity to do so, especially if you take silly sacks and fail to run down the clock properly. They need to rid themselves of that Superbowl collapse and potentially going forward maybe aggressive offense is the best defense. Secondly and just as importantly they need to win the games they are supposed to win. With the Buccaneers, Vikings and Saints all coming to the Mercedes Benz Dome in the next three weeks, now is the time for the Falcons to take control of their own destiny.
4) How will the Broncos deal with their current QB situation?
With the Broncos season now officially being described as a bust it does not take a rocket scientist to work out what has gone wrong. At 3-7, out of the division race and with a defense that is still rated amongst the top ten in the league, it is obvious that the offensive side of the ball has let the roster down. John Elway must have known that things wouldn't be as smooth sailing as they were when Peyton Manning waltzed into Denver like a knight in shining armour, but even he must be disappointed with how things have gone since then. Incumbent starter Trevor Siemien has meandered along and finally been benched, Brock Osweiler has returned and has looked just as lost as he was in Houston and last year's first round pick Paxton Lynch clearly isn't cutting it if he still hasn't been put under center this season. If I were them now is the time to see what Paxton Lynch has got, he has all the measurables of a stellar pocket passer, he had a great mentor in Gary Kubiak last year and he can't be any worse than the other two Broncos QB's this season. If nothing else, if he doesn't impress he will only serve to give the Broncos a higher draft pick next year. Now is the time to see if the Broncos have their QB of the future on their roster and it is worth reiterating what a mess this is for one of the standout franchises in the NFL over the last decade.
5) How will the Seahawks fare without two of their vaunted 'Legion of Boom'?
With the news that both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor are now most likely out for the season, times have officially started changing for the Seahawks. With Bobby Wagner and a half healthy Earl Thomas, much of what set the tone for the Seahawks over the past five years or so will be different and kudos to John Schneider and the Seahawks front office for realising that this change was happening regardless of those lost to injured reserve. As written earlier this month the focus of this team now roundly sits on the shoulders of Russel Wilson. With an improved offensive line, the best set of wide receivers he has ever had and a healthy Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks look set to light up the boxscore on the other side of the ball. Look for Pete Carroll and Darell Bevell to put a further emphasis on this offense going forwards as the Seahawks slowly transition from their team of old. It would be wrong to write off their defense entirely, especially given the devastation that their defensive front can cause on its own, but their success this season is likely to be measured by a different barometer.
6) Can the Chiefs recover after a tough month?
As mentioned in the theme for the Chargers, it has not been a good month for the Chiefs. They have not even been the best team in their division over that stretch and they will certainly need to change some things in order for their season not to become a disaster. The good news is they still hold a two game division lead with all other teams in the AFC West holding a losing record. The bad news is they have lost four in a row with a tough stretch of AFC matchups in the next three weeks (Bills, @Jets, Raiders). For Andy Reid and company to right the ship there are three things they must do:
A) They must return to limiting turnovers on offense - Obviously Alex Smith is human and he has certainly looked more like it since the middle of October. What this offense thrived on was methodically moving up the field, knowing they would create chances from protecting the football. If they can win the turnover battle, winning becomes that much easier.
B) They need to find additional receiving threats outside of Travis Kelce - What has becoming blindingly obvious yet again to most of the NFL is Alex Smith still lacks true NFL quality receivers on the outside. Tyreek Hill does a brilliant job in the slot or out of the backfield and Travis Kelce is clearly a stud at Tight End, but the Giants proved if you can lock those two down you can force Smith into throwing into double coverage or targeting receivers he lacks confidence in. Providing more balance may again be a solution to their issues.
C) Return to feeding Kareem Hunt 25+ times a game - Over the last few weeks potentially because they have been losing and probably partly due to injuries on the offensive line, the Chiefs have been using the running game less. If one focuses on what brought their six game winning streak he was a big reason for it. He was averaging over 7 yards per carry, totalling over 100 total yards from scrimmage per game and enabled Kansas City to keep teams offenses of the field. It may be stretch to hope for Hunt's early season form, but rushing the football should again provide more balance to their offense and provide Alex Smith more time in the pocket.
It will be interesting to see whether the Chiefs implement any of these changes to their offense for their vital matchup against the Bills this weekend.
7) Which of the self-professed playoff contenders cannot really afford another defeat at Thanksgiving?
Obviously all teams in the playoff hunt are looking to win to keep their charge towards January going, but this theme is focused on one team from each conference who can't afford to lose another game in response to preseason playoff expectations:
AFC, Oakland Raiders - After getting demolished by the Superbowl champions at home last weekend the Raiders have also fallen to 4-6, but like the Chargers they surprisingly only find themselves two games out of first place in the division. With games at home against the Broncos and Giants followed by an important divisional match in Kansas City, the Raiders still arguably control their own destiny. However a loss against a rudderless Broncos team would do more than damage morale as it would likely put them out of contention for the division and indeed the playoffs. It will be interesting to see whether the Chiefs get caught by more than one member of their division in the coming weeks.
NFC, Washington Redskins - You could be forgiven for choosing their division rival Cowboys too, but it is clear to most in the NFL that Jay Gruden's seat may be feeling a little warm if the Redskins fail to reach the postseason this year. With a talented roster built by the now departed Scott McCloughlin, the Redskins will certainly be disappointed by how things have gone so far, especially in their two losses to the division rival Eagles. Having dug a massive whole for themselves their game against the New York Giants provides an opportunity to right the ship. Life could get very difficult for them if they lose considering their two following games are in Dallas and in L.A. against the Chargers. Winning this week will provide the Redskins a platform from which to challenge for a wildcard spot.
8) Can the Jags continue to rely on their defense to take them to the playoffs?
Another week and another standout performance from the Jaguars defense has preserved their one game lead atop the AFC South. With each passing week this team is proving that good defense can indeed win you games no matter how your offense is performing on a given day. I am certain some of the offensive struggles are a function of conservative play-calling, but it is important to recognise how good the defensive unit has been so far. They are the number one points scoring defense by 2.4 points, lead the league in total defense, passing defense, in sacks, in defensive touchdowns scored, in fumbles forced and are in the top 3 in interceptions. This performance is historically good currently, with all levels of the defense contributing to the success of the unit. With matchups against the offensively challenged Cardinals and Colts in the next fortnight, their defense may have almost got them to the playoffs by week 14.
9) Awards Watch: Offensive Rookie of the Year
As with previous weeks, this section focuses on my current thoughts on the leaders in a specific rewards category. For the Rookie of the Year awards I am most focused on individual performance or impact they have on the team performance in comparison to last years standings. With my preseason favourite (Dalvin Cook) on IR, here are my current leaders for this award if it were given at Thanksgiving:
1- Kareem Hunt (RB, Chiefs) - As mentioned in the theme about the Chiefs, the third round pick out of Toledo has defied all expectations so far. He has carried the Chiefs on multiple occasions so far, currently has over 1,000 all-purpose yards and a combined 6 touchdowns. He certainly has a hold of top spot at the moment, largely due to the Chiefs reliance on him, but there is a crowded field behind him of talented offensive threats.
2- Alvin Kamara (RB, Saints) - Kamara has been to Drew Brees as Hunt has been to Smith. He is an excellent change of pace back, has great hands and is currently a key part of one of the top offenses and teams in the NFL. The only thing holding him back currently is the fact that he shares time with Mark Ingram in Sean Payton's offense.
3- Leonard Fournette (RB, Jaguars) - It seems like there is a parade of running backs atop the rookie rankings at the moment and rightfully so. Fournette is the most traditional of the backs with around 85% of his almost 900 scrimmage yards coming from rushing the football. He has proved to be a valuable asset so far for a slightly sputtering Jags offense and if it weren't for injury and Blake Bortles's ineffectiveness, he may have been even higher up these rankings.
4- Christian McCaffrey (RB/WR, Panthers) - The former first round pick out of Stanford has had a solid start to his career in the NFL. As a multi-purpose weapon out of the backfield McCaffrey has shone in the moments he has touched the football. Due to sharing time with Jonathan Stewart he is slightly behind the first class production of the rookies ahead of him.
5- JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, Steelers) - The lone pure wide receiver in this bunch, Smith-Schuster has adjusted well to life as one of Big Ben's targets edging out the streaky and often suspended Martavis Bryant on the wide receiver depth chart. He currently leads all rookies in receiving yardage (568 yards) and is joint for the lead in receiving touchdowns scored as well (5). However, the reason he is behind the running backs is currently his performance has had less of an impact on his team's performance and it is far behind the leading receivers in the league so far this season.
Honourable Mention: DeShaun Watson (QB, Texans) - The high flying rookie made quite the impression in his 7 game stretch under center for the Texans. If he had remained fit he would have been the likely winner, but due to season ending knee surgery that is sadly not the case. However, it is safe to say we are all excited to see what he will get up to second time around with what is a talented Houston roster.
Players of the Week:
Offensive Player of the Week: Antonio Brown (WR, Steelers) - Although he is one of the best players in his position in the league, it is sometimes important to admire the precision with which he works. Against one of the best defensive coordinators of all time (Dick LeBeau), Brown caught three touchdown passes, had 10 receptions and picked up 144 yards on the day. A standout performance for a team in need of one to keep a tight grip on the AFC North.
Defensive Player of the Week: Casey Hayward (CB, Chargers) - Some credit must go to Nathan Peterman and the Bills offense for this performance as they looked thoroughly out of their depth in L.A. at the weekend. Needless to say Hayward still had to perform and he certainly did. He allowed a passer rating of 0.0 in 8 passes thrown his way, he batted down two balls and intercepted two passes. A standout day for a standout player.
Score Predictions:
Record Last Week: 9-5
Overall record since week 1: 64%
MIN@DET: 28-21; Big match-up for divisional rivals with serious playoff implications. We know the Minnesota defense is for real now and they could be the key difference in this game. It also doesn't seem to matter who lines up under center for the Vikings, so expect them to sneak this one in what should be a close game.
LAC@DAL: 21-14; Another divisional match-up for both squads, with both needing a win if they want any chance at a playoff run. The Chargers have been the better squad over the last few weeks so I'm going to give them the edge, especially considering the current Broncos QB merry-go-round at the moment.
NYG@WAS: 14-27; An impressive performance from the Giants defense last week, with more of the same needed if any of the coaching staff intend to remain in position after the season ends. Washington will be disappointed with their collapse last week but they can take heart from the fact the Giants are not the same team as the Saints. Ultimately this should be an easy enough win for the Redskins due to their multi-dimensional offense and playoff calibre defense. To top it off they are home at Thanksgiving, who needs more motivation?
TB@ATL: 14-30; The Falcons arguably saved their season on Monday night beating the Seahawks with the kind of team performance that was reminiscent of last season’s roster. Considering this is a divisional game I'd expect the Buccaneers to put up a fight, but the Falcons have too much talent on both sides of the ball for the Bucs, especially if Jamies Winston is still out with injury.
CLE@CIN: 14-28; And so the search for a win continues for the Browns. Hue Jackson's squad seem to be getting closer each week, but sloppy errors and penalties seem to be hindering their ability to sustain drives in the final few minutes. Taking on a Bengals squad that is performing better than their record suggests, I can't see the Browns sneaking this one either.
TEN@IND: 24-17; Another divisional game with playoff implications for the Titans. The Colts should be no match for Marcos Mariota and company considering they are over-matched in every aspect of Sunday's game. It will be interesting to see whether the Titans can keep putting the pressure on the surging Jags.
BUF@KC: 21-24; With both teams slumping, this is a key matchup considering both squads have playoff ambitions. Alex Smith has looked human over the last few weeks, with the pressure the offensive line is giving up finally getting the better of him. Bills fans will be hoping Tyrod Taylor is back to form after his one week benching. This should be a close game with both teams defenses good enough to give their own offenses chances. I'm giving the edge to the home team, but don't be surprised if the Bills win this one on the road.
MIA@NE: 21-35; So much for the potential upset game for the Patriots last week. Tom Brady and company steamrolled the Raiders and I'd expect a similar treatment of the Dolphins this week. With the Dolphins struggling to move the ball on offense and a secondary that is allowing too many big plays, it is difficult to see how this game will be close going into the fourth quarter.
CAR@NYJ: 20-24; A potential upset game for the Panthers on the road. They are currently proving their doubters wrong (me included) at the moment, but they run into a Jets roster that has been surprisingly good on the defensive side of the ball with veteran QB Josh McCowan moving the chains offensively. The Panthers certainly have more talent, but the Jets have been good at home so far this season and therefore I'm going to back the home team.
CHI@PHI: 21-35; This is a contest between two very different teams. The Eagles have found their groove especially offensively, while the Bears are still trying to discover what talent they already have on the roster. The twin headed Bears rushing attack may be able to keep the ball away from Carson Wentz for a while, but it is difficult to see the Bears putting up enough points to be competitive in this one.
SEA@SF: 28-14; This could be the first potential 49ers start for Jimmy Garopollo and what a team to face. The Seattle defense is certainly reeling given the recent injury crisis but it will still be a stern test for the new 49ers QB. Defense may be the Seahawks old identity but the reason they will win this one is Russel Wilson and the offense. With better protection on the offensive line, the Seattle QB has been punishing opponents and there is no reason for this not to continue this week.
NO@LAR: 31-34; Potentially the NFC game of Thanksgiving and most would not have called that before the season started. This game pits winners of eight straight against the current leaders of the NFC West. Drew Brees and company did their best to try and lose against Washington last week and if they make the same mistakes again the Rams are unlikely to give them a second chance. Expect this to be a close high scoring affair between two of the league’s best offenses. After a disappointing result last week, expect the Rams to pick up the pace and just edge the Saints in this one.
JAX@ARI: 28-20; By now we all know the Jags defense is for real. With the amount of pressure the front seven bring it is hard for any offense to find a rhythm. With backup QB Drew Stanton under center, expect the pass rush to provide too many opportunities for Blake Bortles and Company to miss.
DEN@OAK: 17-27; What a mess both rosters have been so far this year. With the Broncos current mess at the game's most important position, I'd expect the Raiders to be able to edge this one. Be aware the Broncos defensive unit is still one of the best in the NFL.
GB@PIT: 17-31; With Aaron Rodgers under center this would have been the game of the week. With Brett Hundley the Packers will do well to be in this game at the start of the fourth quarter. The Steelers offense has been inconsistent of late, but they have pulled out the big plays when needed and they should have plenty of opportunity to do so against the Packers.
HOU@BAL: 17-24; A strong defensive effort kept the Texans on the edge of the playoff hunt against the Cardinals last week. However, this weekend is likely to be a different story against a Ravens squad that can boast an improved defense and plenty of offensive weapons if they are all healthy. This game could be very close indeed, but Ravens fans should be expecting their team to win this one.
