Week 13: Key matchup's define a pivotal week for potential playoff teams

Good afternoon and welcome to another week of my thoughts from 'across the pond'. With Thanksgiving over, five weeks remain for playoff hopefuls to secure their places, potential free agents look to perform to secure a big pay day and plenty of drama has yet to unfold with jobs on the line for many within the NFL. This week I will take my usual deep dive into some of the key trends of the upcoming week in the NFL, I will look at the state of the franchise for two teams outside of the playoff picture, there is a short feature about coaches potentially on the hot seat and I will continue to provide an overview of another of the NFL's marquee awards. Without further ado, let's dive into it:


1) Is there any team that could currently beat the Eagles? What is the potential blueprint to do so?


So the Eagles have now proven to most that they are the class of the NFC and with a divisional title almost wrapped up, it is important to look ahead and see how they may fare against potential playoff opponents. The Eagles have highlighted plenty of strengths over the past few weeks with their QB Carson Wentz at the top of the list, followed by their; multi-faceted offense, diverse running game, physical opportunistic defense and last but not least their preparation and coaching each week. Below are some thoughts on three teams that could potentially beat the Eagles and a potential blueprint of how to slow down the hottest team in the NFL. One thing is for certain, if teams have to go through Lincoln Financial Field this January, the Eagles will be a tough out:


Dangerous Opponents:


1- Vikings: The Vikings major calling card is their defense and this is perhaps the most effective way to slow down Carson Wentz and company. With a defense that has been forcing turnovers and limiting opponent touchdowns, they may be able to exert enough pressure to force the Eagles into some mistakes. The key question that remains is can the Vikings short passing/rushing focused offense execute with the positions they are given on the field. They may have the ability to slow down the Eagles, it would be interesting to see whether that was possible for 60 minutes.


2/3- Saints/Falcons: Two NFC South rivals with a similar blueprint to success. With incredibly explosive offenses and defenses that are not afraid of generating pressure and turnovers, the Saints and Falcons provide the only other real threat to the Eagles. With an ability to put up 30+ points a night, these teams may be able to push the Eagles into a shootout that they might lose. Understandably it will be placing fire with fire, as the Eagles offense is also capable of putting up points in a hurry. This is just an acknowledgement of two NFC teams that could potentially have the ability to take the game away from the Eagles.


Potential approach to defeating them:


- Keep the ball out of Wentz's hands: Perhaps the best and most efficient way to defeat a formidable offense is to keep the ball away from the offense all together. The Eagles certainly make this difficult due to their physical and imposing defense, but running the clock, forcing the Eagles defense to remain on the field and disrupting the rhythm of Carson Wentz may be the most effective way to force mistakes.


- Take your chances and be patient: Much like the Patriots have done for the past 15 years or so, the Eagles are not likely to make too many errors on Gameday. Therefore a team must be willing to take calculated risks, do some unexpected things and not go crazy if one play goes awry. The Eagles will thrive off dysfunction on the opposing side-line and the compounding of errors only serves to take the game further out of one's grasp.


- Don't play the same defense throughout the game: This is a tactic right out of the Bill Belichick School of defense. Against a QB that has looked so comfortable whether teams have been blitzing him or sitting deep in coverage, the trick will be to mix up coverage's and potentially provide some exotic looks for the young Eagles QB. He has certainly looked composed so far, but a changing scheme may force him into a turnover or two that can change a game.


2) Are the Steelers realistically the only team that can slow down the Patriots?


After another impressive performance from Tom Brady and company at home against the Dolphins, it is becoming more and more difficult to believe that many teams could beat this Patriots roster as compiled especially in the AFC. Matt Patricia seems to have fixed their defensive woes, the offense seems to be firing on all cylinders with few injuries affecting them so far and Bill Belichick continues to confound teams with varied game-plans each week. Fortunately for NFL fans one team that could cause issues (the Steelers) are soon to play the Patriots in Pittsburgh in what could be a potential warm up to an AFC Championship game. For all their inconsistency in the early part of the season, the Steelers as mentioned in previous weeks finally seem to be finding their groove on offense, living up to their preseason hype of being able to score points in a hurry and have a defense that is certainly living by the 'bend but don't break' mentality. It will be interesting to see how both teams do in their match-up in a couple of weeks’ time, with home field likely to be a crucial prize to the victor. Outside of Pittsburgh one could argue that the Chargers (still with a losing record) are most likely to cause the Patriots an issue due to the fact that they have a veteran QB with playoff experience, a dangerous front seven on defense and have kept most of their games close this season. Ultimately the AFC currently lacks many other true contenders and so the build up to the Steelers game is likely to be the focus of attention for most in the AFC over the coming weeks.


3) Can the Cowboys fix their offensive woes in time to save their season?


What a fall from grace in Dallas after the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys seem to have proven so far that they cannot live without their second year star and that is troubling for a team with plenty of talented players on their roster. As has been mentioned in the last few weeks, significant offensive line issues seem to have appeared and that will be the greatest concern for Jason Garrett and company. Their biggest strength coming into this season is unlikely to have simply fallen away without their suspended running back. What the Cowboys have become is predictable, their easy short yardage third downs no longer seem so simple without Elliott, providing time in the pocket for Prescott has become more difficult with teams pinning back their ears and injuries have also affected them. What the Cowboys need to do is provide some disguise to what they intend to do and provide some semblance of a rushing threat. Without the threat of the rush, no offensive line is going to perform particularly well as team's know they need to get after the QB. Ultimately the Cowboys need to win their next five games, so now is the time to throw the kitchen sink into convincing teams that they don't just intend to rely on Dak Prescott for the last three games of Elliott's suspension.


4) Do the Vikings really have a QB controversy or should Case Keenum be left to do his thing in the Vikings offense?


Two weeks ago I mentioned that the Vikings have a looming controversy in the impending return of Teddy Bridgewater to the offense, but this week I would like to provide a brief counter argument to that belief. Case Keenum has proven over the last weeks that he is capable of running the Vikings offense extremely efficiently, more so than Sam Bradford and in some ways deserves every right to keep his job. Yes he is a back-up QB with some starting experience and yes he may not have as much talent or as powerful an arm as Teddy Bridgewater, but their certainly are some things going for the former Rams QB. First and foremost is people should remember Bridgewater has been out for a long time and although nostalgia pushes one to think he should be starting, the reality potentially suggest otherwise. Furthermore, Bridgewater was by no means a top flight QB when he was starting with his QB rating sitting between about 17-24th annually, his slight physical stature and arm are not that much better than Keenum's and he has no experience in new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmer's scheme. For next season and beyond the Vikings certainly have a controversy, but while they are winning sticking with Keenum is starting to look like the smarter choice.


5) Why have the Raiders failed to recover lost ground so far and can they still be a factor in the AFC playoff picture?


The Raiders have had a plethora of issues so far this season and much of their disappointing start can be traced back to an off-season where some decisions are still hard to fathom. The reasons why they have failed to capitalise on their weak division so far can be most easily defined by three aspects:


-The signing of Marshawn Lynch: Atop the list is the 31 year old running back who was known to many as a troublemaker during his time in Seattle. However productive he used to be, the former Raiders running back Latavius Murray has outperformed him in every-way this season and their big off-season addition has certainly been disappointing and disruptive so far.


- Coordinator merry-go-round: With the firing of OC Bill Musgrave in January, and displacing and eventual firing of defensive coordinator Ken Norton halfway through the season, the Raiders have changed much about what made them a success last season. Yes Musgrave's replacement Todd Downing was an up and coming coach, but they fired the man who made Derek Carr who he was in his first years in the league. With the arrival of John Pagano as an assistant head coach and then firing of Norton entirely, the Raiders managed to heap too much pressure on themselves and disgruntled some of their most important defensive players. Continuity is important and the Raiders are perhaps the best case and point as to why without it, things may not go as planned.


-Discipline: Highlighted by Michael Crabtree's fight with Aqib Talib and most often seen in the number of penalties conceded the Raiders are the epitome of a team that is fighting itself. With some of the anger stemming from the aforementioned coaching changes, the Raiders look like a team that is teetering on the edge. If they can instil some discipline on a young team, this season is far from over.


Even with the above criticisms the Raiders still very much control their own destiny in the AFC West. They may struggle to get a wildcard spot, but with the talent compiled on the roster and Derek Carr under center they certainly remain in the hunt. With key divisional games still to be played, if the Raiders coaching staff can get control of their players and new defensive coordinator John Pagano can figure out how to slow down their opposition, the Raiders may be able to begin to live up to their preseason expectations.


6) What is next for Eli Manning and the Giants now he has been benched?


So the inevitable has now happened for the Giants with the announcement that Geno Smith will start in place of Eli Manning this week. With his performance being disappointing all season long this eventuality is not a surprise to many and leads me to three interesting thoughts about what the future holds for both parties:


- Eli is certainly not done but his time in New York may be over: As Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers and his brother Peyton have proved there is still enough time for Eli to perform at a high level in the right situation. What is undeniable is there was a level of dysfunction on the offense this year that made life hard for Manning. Furthermore once you start feeling pressure on the offensive line the entire game, you make throws simply based on the fact that you don't want to get hit again. Eli has certainly proven time and again that he can come back from a down moment in his career, I think all involved just need a new situation with which to proceed from this moment on.


- Starting a younger QB provides a twofold benefit for the Giants: It enables the Giants to see what they have in Geno Smith or Davis Webb and if nothing else the losing that they may expect with a young QB should result in some high draft picks. Benching Manning signifies potentially a change in direction but may also speed up their rebuilding process.


- Their offensive line play needs to improve whoever the QB may be: This statement is not up for debate. Manning's biggest issue this season has been the amount of duress he has been under with Jerry Reese and the Giants front office needing to take responsibility for this situation. No Quarterback could have succeeded with the pressure that Manning faced and a revamped offensive line will be needed next year in order to help whoever is under center.


7) State of the Franchise: Indianapolis Colts


It has been a while since I checked in with the Indianapolis Colts this season, largely due to the fact Andrew Luck's injury had doomed their chances of playoff contention from the off. Playing in what will probably be remembered as a dead rubber season, there has been little for Colts fans to savour on the pitch. Jacoby Brissett has likely proven that he is a capable backup QB but unlikely starter in the NFL, TY Hilton is still TY Hilton and the defense still has plenty of room to improve if they are too eventually take some of the burden away from Andrew Luck. What we have potentially learned is Pagano's days in Indy may finally be numbered, they will have plenty of high draft picks with which to restock the roster and at the moment (much like the last two decades or so) the Colts are reliant on the man playing under center. If I were a Colts fan there is certainly some reason to be optimistic in 2018, but in order to compete the Colts will need better play from the offensive line and they will need a defense that can complement Luck. Perhaps the best target is something like the Saints or Falcons have built currently, understanding that in the next few years they will have to make it past two formidable defenses in their own division (Jags & Texans) and a Quarterback who is growing in confidence by the day (Marcus Mariota).


8) State of the Franchise: Tampa Bay Buccaneers


This season has been another lost season for the Bucs with playoff aspirations destroyed by inconsistent play, especially on the offensive side of the ball. With both on and off the field questions surrounding their Franchise QB, this offseason is likely to be very important for the direction of their franchise. They certainly have some talent on the roster with running back Doug Martin, wide receiver Mike Evans and linebacker Lavonte David perhaps the most obvious stars. What they have lacked is cohesion and direction and that is likely to be put on the coaching staff. With potential high draft picks on their way, a franchise QB already there and some cap space to work with, the Bucs may be able to catapult into playoff contention with a successful off-season. Their priorities should revolve around improving team atmosphere, becoming more unpredictable on both sides of the ball and limiting self-inflicted turnovers and errors. Within a division that has three playoff quality teams already, the Bucs will need to up their game if they intend to keep up over the coming seasons.


9) Hot seat watch: Coaches


With the end of the season nearing, veterans being benched in favour of rookies and plenty around the NFL fighting to remain in the NFL, I thought it would be prudent to call to mind some who may not be keeping up with owners and team's expectations. First up are coaches who are likely to be feeling the heat as the season comes to the business end.


A) Ben McAdoo - Eli Manning benching aside, time is likely up for this second year head coach. The Giants are in need of a refresh and it may be more than the coaching staff that fails to make it beyond January this year.


B) Dirk Koetter - There is little surprise for me that the two coaches on the hot seat below are also mentioned in my state of the franchise themes. Koetter's Buccaneers have disappointing since the season started, with a talented roster and playoff expectations from many, their underperformance in year two of his tenure may be too much for ownership to handle.


C) Chuck Pagano - Pagano received somewhat of a lifeline last year when he wasn't fired alongside his fellow GM Ryan Grigson at the end of last season and although Andrew Luck's injury has rather derailed his playoff hopes this season, it may be time for new GM Chris Ballard to pick his own man to lead the Colts back to contention in 2018.


10) Awards Watch: Defensive Rookie of the Year?


A much tougher award to predict in general as a rookie's impact on a defense can be much harder to quantify due to playing time, learning curves and the fact that some teams may still be struggling as a whole. Here is my take on how the candidates stack up at the moment....


1- Marshon Lattimore (CB, Saints): Lattimore has been a true rookie standout so far this season. He has performed extremely well for a Saints defense that was in need of a great deal of help this season. The stats do not lie either as Lattimore has helped the Saints rise significantly in both the total and passing defense categories, while individually he has 2 interceptions (one returned for td), 11 passes defensed and 31 tackles. He has certainly made quite the impression so far and deserves to be leading the field at this stage.


2- TJ Watt (OLB, Steelers): Not far behind is JJ Watt's younger brother and my pick for the rookie defensive player of the year. TJ Watt has impressed as a consistent pass rushing threat on the outside (rookie leading 5 sacks), whilst also being adept at dropping back into coverage (1 int & 7 passed defensed) and pressing the point of attack in the running game. He has proven to be an invaluable pick-up for a playoff team so far, and if he is anything like his brother he is likely to improve further as time goes by.


3- Tre'Davious White (CB, Bills): Another cornerback who has performed well on a potential playoff team. White has impressed with his all-round coverage skills (2 ints, 1 td & 16 passes defensed), with his willingness to tackle an additional bonus. While his individual performance has been impressive, his candidacy is perhaps hurt by his team’s recent struggles, although the defense is certainly not to blame for most of it.


4- Malik Hooker (FS, Colts): The first round pick out of Ohio State has impressed on a team lacking much defensive talent. With a rookie leading 3 interceptions and contributions in all other major stats categories, his all round game has been a bright spot on what has been a dismal season for the Colts. His team’s struggles will likely prevent him from getting near to winning the award, but his positive contributions will be a boost for a Colts team in need of talent.


5- Jamaal Adams (FS, Jets): This first round pick out of LSU is somewhat behind the rest of the pack in individual stats, potentially even his own rookie safety teammate Marcus Maye. What Adams has provided however is a stable presence in the secondary, he has proven to be adept at many aspects of safety play and perhaps most importantly he is the leader of a defense that is only likely to improve in the near future. He may be young and he may eventually get knocked of this awards list by others, but his contribution to a team that has outperformed meagre expectations cannot be understated.


Players of the Week:


Offensive player of the week: Julio Jones (WR, Falcons) - Kudos to his wide receiver teammate Mohammad Sanu who threw a beautiful strike for one of his touchdown receptions, but Julio Jones proved once again why he is one of the best wide receivers of his generation. For the third time in his career Jones had a 250 yard receiving game (12 rec's, 253, 2 td's), dominating the Buccaneers defense and giving hope to Falcons fans that their team may be incredibly dangerous over the next few weeks.


Defensive player of the week: Bobby Wagner (MLB, Seahwaks) - For a team with a depleted secondary it was vital that the Seahawks front seven stepped up and they were led by none other than the fourth member of the 'legion of boom'. Wagner had a stellar day with an interception, eight tackles (including two for a loss), two quarterback hits and a pass broken up. Granted this was against the 49ers but it was nevertheless a big game from a player who needs to remain at this level if the Seahawks want a chance of competing in the playoffs.


Score Predictions:


Last week's record: 13-3


Overall record since week 1: 65%


WAS@DAL: 24-17; A fantastic divisional match-up to start the week. With Zeke Elliott still suspended and the Cowboys o-line struggling to protect Dak Prescott without their security blanket, I would expect the Redskins to be able to sneak this one. Given that both teams are 5-6 and in need of a win to remain in the playoff hunt, this is a vital game for both teams and head coaches.


MIN@ATL: 28-31; One of the three NFC games of the week. With the Vikings proving that a team is very much the sum of its parts even with Case Keenum still at QB, it is difficult to see them losing many games. This might be one of them though as the Falcons seem to have picked up from their mid-season slump. With their defense becoming more opportunistic after each game and Matt Ryan and the offense slowly showing signs of life, I'm backing the Falcons to give the Vikings their third loss of the season. At some point Mike Zimmer and company may have to realise that their team is not going to win a Superbowl with Case Keenum at QB.


DET@BAL: 21-24; Another interesting match-up between two squads chasing a playoff spot. Baltimore's defense is likely to be the x-factor here, with both teams matching up pretty well on paper. This is an important game for both teams, with the winner likely taking some momentum in the final run to the playoffs.


NE@BUF: 35-21; If this divisional game would have taken place a few weeks ago, this game could have been vital to who won the AFC East. With the Bills mired in a QB controversy and the Patriots looking like they have solved most of their issues on defense, I'd expect Tom Brady & Company to win this and almost secure another AFC East title.


SF@CHI: 21-17; With CJ Beathard now injured, the Jimmy Garopollo era has now officially started in San Francisco. It is also a great match-up for the 49ers with the Bears also in rebuilding mode, it will be interesting to see which team can grit out a rare win. Expect this game to be close with the Bears two-pronged rushing attack coming up against an evolving defense and young offense that slowly seems to be taking Kyle Shanahan's offensive principles on board.


TB@GB: 14-21; With Jamies Winston still potentially out and Brett Hundley looking more and more comfortable in the Packer offense each week, I'd expect the Packers to edge this one at Lambeau Field. With Aaron Rodgers return date still unknown, each win for the Packers gives credence to the belief they may still be able to make a late playoff run.


IND@JAX: 14-28; Coaching errors cost the Jags in their game last week against the Cardinals, putting them out of sole control of their division for the first time this season. This is an important bounce back game for them against the division rival and quarterback-less Colts, with nothing less than win acceptable for a team that is looking to snap one of the longest playoff droughts in the NFL.


DEN@MIA: 20-27; With Paxton Lynch not even lasting a game due to injury, the Denver QB situation makes for sad reading. With both teams likely to field less than stellar backup QB's, this game is likely to come down to both rosters abilities to run the ball and stop the opposition. Usually one would back the squad with a dominant defense, but at home and with a Quarterback that has been able to move the ball somewhat, I am going to back the Dolphins.


KC@NYJ: 14-20; What a nightmare the last few weeks has been for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. With their 5th straight loss bringing them right back towards the pack, things don't get any easier against another AFC East opponent. Although many thought the Jets would struggle this year, this team has proven that with a solid defense and steady quarterback play one can compete in almost every game. The Meadowlands is a tough place for any team to play and until the Chiefs can prove they can fix their flaws, I cannot see them holding the division lead for much longer or indeed winning this game.


HOU@TEN: 17-27; Another important game for the division leading Titans. Without Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt the Texans should lack the ability to sneak past the Titans in this one. Expect the multi-faceted offense of the Titans to eventually wear down a Houston defense that has to spend too much time on the field during the game due to their inability to get the ball downfield on offense.


CLE@LAC: 17-30; Another week and another likely loss for the luckless Browns. Playing against a Chargers team that is now right in the thick of the AFC West Divisional Race, I'd be surprised if they have the talent or team cohesion to keep up with Phillip Rivers and company in this one.


CAR@NO: 21-30; Intriguing NFC South showdown with the division lead on the line. The Saints have been particularly impressive so far whilst the Panthers have looked slightly more inconsistent but have found ways to win. Expect this to be an offensive showdown, with each team’s defense's ability to produce turnovers being vital in what should be a close game. Given the Saints are at home and they have Drew Brees at Quarterback, I am going to give them a slight edge in this one.


LAR@ARI: 31-20; Another important game for a Rams team right in the thick of the division and playoff race. Facing an inconsistent Cardinals offense, I'd expect Jared Goff and company to take this game away from the Cardinals.


NYG@OAK: 14-31; With Eli Manning finally benched after a dismal season, this looks like it could be the last hurrah for a few Giants players and coaching staff. Although this may bring out the best in their opponents, I'd expect the Raiders who are at home and chasing a division lead to keep their momentum going here. With everyone finally getting healthy on the offensive side of the ball, now is the time for Derek Carr and his offense to make their playoff run.


PHI@SEA: 24-20; This Sunday night match-up will be a fantastic litmus test for the NFC leading Philadelphia Eagles. With Carson Wentz and company on a roll and steaming past opponents, it will be interesting to see what the Seahawks can do to stop their run. Both teams have a great chance of winning this game, but with so many injuries on defense, I think the Seahawks may just lack the firepower to slow down the Eagles in this one.


PIT@CIN: 24-21; Another fantastic match-up to end the week especially as this is a divisional rivalry. The Steelers got lucky last week against the Rodgers-less Packers and will need to be better against a Bengals team that has been better than their record suggests. Both teams are requiring wins for different reasons so expect this game to be close. I am going to give the Steelers the edge due to their multi-dimensional offense and their need to stay in touch with the Patriots in the AFC. Don't be surprised however if the Bengals manage to sneak this one.