Week 15: Unpredictability and injuries reign in the NFL
Good afternoon sports fans and welcome to the 15th week of my blog. With a number of statement victories, key injuries and a plethora of potential playoff scenarios to come week 14 certainly did not disappoint for the NFL fan in terms of drama. Looking ahead however it has made some key changes to the presumed NFL pecking order. With Carson Wentz out for the year, the Patriots losing to Miami and the 49ers suddenly looking like a different team there is plenty to talk about this week. First off we shall head to Atlanta to discuss an eerily similar potential ending for the Falcons...
1) Can the Falcons run the table and head into playoffs in the same form as last season?
For those NFL fans paying attention a lot of the Falcons season this year is seeming eerily similar to what happened before their Superbowl run last year. The Falcons were 8-5 at this point last year, needing to win out to clinch the division/home-field and although they had one of the league's best offenses it was their defense that had begun to step up and be counted. Although there is no point in directly comparing the Falcons chances to the past, this year’s team find themselves in a very similar position. If they were to win out, not only would they win the division, they would have a shot at home-field. They would also have beaten two of the best teams in the NFL which happen to be in their own division and they would have built momentum into the playoffs. The Falcons have a tough task ahead of them however. Their first issue is their offense which has struggled to perform at times this season, especially when Matt Ryan makes very unlike Matt Ryan turnovers. Granted his interceptions have largely been tipped balls but that will need to improve. Secondly they still need to improve their clock management as the Superbowl first showed, the Falcons decision making when in the lead is perplexing at times. Finally their biggest stumbling block is likely to be their division rivals, with games against the Bucs, Saints and Panthers to come, winning all three will be a tough task. Fortunately for the Falcons they have built some positive momentum going into it and looking back into the past may help them gather the fortitude to complete their winning streak against the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. One thing is for certain, they will need to put away the Buccaneers (they have struggled against weaker teams) to keep their division and playoff hopes alive.
2) Who will win in the match-up between the AFC's best two teams?
Even though the Patriots lost at the weekend, this match-up is still the one that many NFL fans have been waiting for. The Steelers and Patriots are currently the best two teams in the AFC, they have had a fantastic rivalry over the last ten years or so and this game will likely decide who has home-field in the AFC playoff run. There are plenty of keys to the game, with injuries certainly taking a toll on the Steelers defense in particular. Below I outline my key thoughts that will likely determine the winner:
- Time of possession battle: A key to a lot of football games, but this is likely to be especially important in this one given that both team’s strengths are their offenses. Both head coaches know that keeping the ball out of the opposing QB's hands is the best way to slow down their offense, their effectiveness at doing so will be vital. With Le'Veon Bell on one side and the mix of Patriots back on the other side, this should be a fantastic contest and it is tough to see who will come out on top.
- Which defense can force a turnover or two? If Ryan Shazier had been in the line-up, the answer to this question would likely have been very different. The do it all nature of the Steelers star line-backer will be missed and his absence showed as the Steelers squeaked past the Ravens last week. With Shazier out, this is a tough match-up to call and the defense that can force a turnover or two, is likely to provide a winning platform for their respective star QB.
- Can the Steelers generate enough pressure to affect Tom Brady? It is well known now (first exhibited by the Giants) that about the only way to get Brady to potentially make a mistake is too bring pressure and hope it affects his offensive line and rhythm. A fully fit Steelers defense is certainly capable of it, especially with the zone blitz that has been a staple of the Steelers defense for years. Without Shazier though it will be interesting to see whether they can bring enough pressure, before Brady gets the ball out of his hands.
- Do the Steelers have enough in the tank to compete? Definitely a point to be aware of. With the Steelers having played in two tough division rivalries over the last two weeks and dug themselves out of a hole twice, it will be interesting to see what their energy levels are like. A further point on this could be their maturity levels. Over the last fortnight members of the Steelers roster have been slightly over-zealous on the field of play and it will be interesting to see whether the Patriots can bate them into silly penalties.
As one can see from the points above, Sunday night's game is likely to be close and is extremely difficult to call. With both offenses lighting up the scoreboards, it will be on the defense's to make the difference in this game. Given the struggles they had without Ryan Shazier last week, I think the Patriots may just sneak this one. Especially given that they rarely lose two games in a row when Bill Belichick is in charge.
3) How does the Carson Wentz injury affect the Eagles this year and in the future?
Sad news coming out of Philadelphia this week as leading MVP candidate Carson Wentz has snapped his left ACL in the win against the Rams. This is a gut punch for both player and team, as the Eagles were well placed for a Superbowl run this year and their success was largely built around their second year QB. For Wentz this is a cruel blow to a happy go lucky chap who has always managed to keep the game in perspective. So much so that he could be seen celebrating with his teammates on Sunday night, knowing the likely damage that he had done to his knee.
Looking forward to the rest of this season, the Eagles are still likely to be a tough out in the NFC. With the division title wrapped up and the team a couple of wins away from secure home-field there is still plenty to play for in Philadelphia. Nick Foles is the man who will be asked to step up to the plate and although he is not Carson Wentz, Foles is a decent QB in his own right. What is likely to make his transition that much easier, is the weapons that GM Howie Roseman and company have surrounded him with. The additions of Jay Ajayi, Alshon Jeffrey and LeGarrette Blount this season, mean Foles will only be required to complement his offense to keep this team humming. Their issue as they reach the playoffs will be when he comes up against a top flight QB who starts a shootout that he cannot keep up with. Wentz is a gamer and was well prepared for that situation, it will be interesting to see how Foles handles it. Looking to the future, Wentz should be ready to start come the 2018 season, so hopefully in the long run the Eagles will be trending upwards. The keys to their playoff run this year are now in the hands of Nick Foles and it will be interesting to see whether he can elevate his game to keep the Eagles in the hunt now that Wentz is likely out for the year.
4) Judging Jimmy Garopollo's performance so far. What does the future hold for him and the 49ers?
After another win for the 49ers, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan must be thrilled with their new man under center. Never in 49ers history has a new starting quarterback performed so well, as Garopollo has broken passing records that have stood since before Joe Montana. Garapollo's impact is tough to understate at this point, everything on the offensive side of the ball seems to have improved due to his good decision making, fast accurate throwing and his poise in the pocket. All skills that he likely developed with Tom Brady as his mentor. Even the defense has improved somewhat, some of that will be down to the opposition that they have faced, some will be due to the fact Garopollo has allowed them more rest during games. With match-ups against the Titans, Jags and Rams to come the 49ers may limp home or given their newfound confidence they may be in a position to impact the playoff race both within their own division and in the AFC, with both AFC South division leaders matching up against them in the next fortnight. What is indisputable is the 49ers will be looking to keep hold of their prize asset, what form that will take is harder to know. With the current cap space the 49ers have he could easily be locked up to a long-term extension, but given time and performance of the roster may be an issue he could be franchise tagged to provide more time for each side to negotiate. What is obvious so far is that Shanahan, Lynch and Garopollo have breathed life into a struggling franchise and the long term outlook for the team is certainly looking more positive by the day.
5) Is too much being made of the Texans handling of Tom Savage's concussion?
One of the controversies to come out of Sunday's slate of games was the handling of Tom Savage's concussion. With the benefit of hindsight and video replay it was easy to see that he had been knocked out by a 49ers defensive lineman, but he still went out for another series before medical professionals took him out of the game. This is a situation that the league is seeing more of and credit to the Texans for making the right decision eventually. Bill O'Brien will likely take some flak for letting him back into the game at all, but there is an onus on the players to realise when they are not at full capacity. His concussion could have been spotted earlier but the idea that the Texans are at fault for not recognising it quickly enough is much ado about nothing in my opinion. The NFL knows that this is an extremely important issue moving forwards and educating the players about the risk of re-aggravating head injuries should be the next step for the players union to take if they wish to stop these occurrences altogether.
6) What can the NFL do about the spate of injuries that seem to be affecting the game's most important position?
With the news that Carson Wentz has snapped his left ACL, that is the seventh major injury this season for a player at the game's most important position (Wentz, Rodgers, Bradford, Luck, Watson, Tannehill and Palmer). This is an extremely important issue for the league especially considering their ratings are falling this season. Marquee match-ups are what makes each NFL Sunday and with young and exciting QB's on the side-line it can be difficult to entice an audience. So what can the league do? Is there a quick fix to their QB crisis?
It is important to note that this is an extremely tough issue to remedy. Given the protection that a quarterback is already afforded, the league is in an inherent battle with itself if it pushes the protection further as it plays with the ethos and tradition of the game. They could perhaps look to penalise more stringently over dangerous hits on the QB, while teams could look at different forms of protective padding to protect the QB. Furthermore a move towards 'rugby tackling' would limit the number of vicious hits that a QB takes unaided to the turf. Ultimately the issue stems from the fact that NFL players today are bigger and stronger than they have ever been and with the quarterback usually being hit with little idea that it is coming it is extremely difficult to protect oneself. The new norm may instead be having two starting quality QB's on the roster. It will be interesting to see how both teams and the league deal with this phenomenon in the near future.
7) State of the Franchise: Houston Texans
For many the Texans season has been disappointing given their current record of 4-9 and their playoff aspirations this season, but much of what has happened this season has been totally out of their control. Injuries to JJ Watt and DeSean Watson destroyed their season more than anything else, while weaknesses along the offensive line, in the backfield and in the secondary have also shown where they need to improve. However, if I was a Texans fan there is plenty to get excited about for the future. The Texans already have a legit front seven with perhaps the two best book-end pass rushers when healthy, they have finally found a young stud at the game's most important position and their passing offense has come to life around DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Further adding to their positivity will be the high first round pick and quality backroom staff they currently have. With that in mind a return to health and an improvement on their mild weaknesses in the off-season should leave this roster ready for contention in 2018. 2017 may not have been their year but the Texans have plenty to build around for next season.
8) State of the Franchise: Washington Redskins
The Redskins season has certainly been disappointing for a fan-base that would have been looking towards a playoff berth this year. Their season is perhaps best summed up by the turmoil in their front office during the off-season. With long-time and well regarded GM Scott Mcloughlin being fired under mysterious circumstances their season has never really recovered from there. Being in a division with the Eagles and Cowboys hasn't helped, along with one of the toughest schedules in football, but many of this seasons wounds are self-inflicted. The one highest up the list is their continued reluctance to extend Kirk Cousins a contract offer to be the team's franchise QB. He has been one of their few bright spots this season and their lack of a decision is perplexing. Coaching errors can also be attributed some of the blame as some strange clock management and play-calling decisions have lost them two or three games. What is without question is there is plenty of talent on this roster and they have plenty of high value draft capital coming their way. This will be a pivotal off-season for the Redskins though as retaining their talent and making a decision about the current coaching staff is likely to affect the trajectory of this franchise greatly. If they fail to re-sign Kirk Cousins, life may become difficult for a Redskins fan which is all too common in the time that Dan Snyder has been owner of the capital's football franchise.
9) AFC West Division Update:
With the Chiefs finally exerting an element of control over the Raiders on Sunday, the AFC West divisional race is somewhat clearer to decipher. There is another key divisional match-up this weekend as the joint leaders face off against each other for the rights to the division lead. With the easier schedule coming in, the Chiefs will be looking to put the division title to bed this weekend, but realistically it is their opponents who are coming into this one in better form. The Chargers are 7-2 in their last nine games and likely match-up well against a Chiefs team still looking to rediscover its identity. If I were a betting man, the winner of this division is likely to be decided by this weekend’s game. The Raiders are certainly not out of the race just yet, but with the toughest schedule remaining in the AFC and a match-up against the Chargers to come, their play will have to dramatically improve on last weekend’s performance if they hope to sneak a playoff spot.
10) NFC South Division Update:
For the neutral, the Falcons victory against the Saints on Thursday night has left a scenario where all three teams are very much in the running for winning the division. With their defense providing the knockout blow, the Falcons have perhaps learned that they have more than their offense to close out tight games. With the Falcons in a divisional match-up this week, they must win to keep pace with their divisional rivals. Although it is not crucial for the Saints and Panthers to win in terms of their grip on the division, their overall record is certainly going to play a role in whether they make the playoffs so realistically these games are must wins also. The Saints have the easier match-up this week at home against the Jets, while the Panthers face off against a Packers team itching to make the playoffs with Aaron Rodgers back at QB. As things stand the Saints and Panthers are tied for the division lead, with the Falcons a game behind, but with both teams matching up against Atlanta in the coming weeks, this division title is certainly still a three horse race.
Players of the Week:
Offensive player of the week: LeSean McCoy (RB, Bills) - What a game for the former Eagles running back in conditions that would have put England in a complete standstill. With inches of snow falling during the game, McCoy rushed for a career high 32 rushes gaining 156 yards on the ground. His key play came in overtime when he ended the game with a 21 yard scamper into the end zone. What a player and what a way to keep the Bills playoff hopes alive.
Defensive Player of the week: Sean Lee (LB, Cowboys) - Another standout performance from the unsung hero of the Cowboys roster. Lee had 18 tackles and a key late game interception to keep Eli Manning and the Giants at bay. With a tough schedule to come, Cowboys fans will be hoping Lee can continue to impress over the coming weeks.
Score Predictions:
Record last week: 9-7
Overall record since week 1: 66%
DEN@IND: 24-17; A tough one to call between two teams that have disappointed a lot this season for different reasons. Given their dismantling of a decent Jets squad last week, I am going to give the edge to the Broncos.
CHI@DET: 21-30; An intriguing NFC North match-up with the playoff contending Lions coming up against an old school Bears rushing attack. Given the fact they are still in the playoff hunt and at home, I'd expect the Stafford led Lions to win this one.
LAC@KC: 30-21; A key divisional game that is likely to decide who makes the playoffs from the AFC West. With the Chiefs finally breaking their losing streak, some might be backing Alex Smith and company to continue to dig themselves out of the whole they dug on their own. However, I am going to back the Chargers given the fact they have been the best team in the AFC West by far over the last two months or so and Phillip Rivers has such great control of this offense at the moment that it is time he brought the Chargers back into the spotlight.
MIA@BUF: 20-27; The Bills are another team knowing that they need to win out in order to have a chance at making the playoffs. With that in mind and a home divisional game on the ledger, expect the Bills to keep their hopes alive against a Dolphins team that has flattered to deceive for most of this season.
GB@CAR: 35-27; A tough match-up for Aaron Rodgers on return from injury. With the knowledge that the Packers need to win out to make the playoffs expect the team to come out firing and put up some points on the Panthers inconsistent secondary. The key to this game will be how the Carolina offense performs. Having performed well last week, the law of averages currently states that they may provide an inconsistent performance this week, so I am going to give the edge to the return Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers.
BAL@CLE: 20-24; A potential banana skin game for a Ravens roster that is holding on to playoff contention by the skin of their teeth. With a Browns squad that performed well against Green Bay, this might be the week they finally break their win-less streak. With a divisional rivalry game, a QB growing in confidence and the coaching staff knowing they need to show some improvement at the end of the season, I am going to break convention and back the Browns in this one.
HOU@JAX: 14-31; Against a full strength Texans roster this would have been an extremely interesting game. Given their injuries, the improving performance of the Jags offense and the stranglehold the Jags defense has on opponents, it is difficult to see this game going anything other than one direction.
CIN@MIN: 21-27; A tough match-up for a Bengals squad that is better than its record suggests. With the Vikings ability to force turnovers on defense and the fact they have been a force to be reckoned with a home this season, I am going to give the edge to the Vikings in this one.
NYJ@NO: 20-34; A likely return to winning ways for a Saints team that will have been gutted to lose in Atlanta. The Jets are certainly no pushovers this season, but the Saints offense has likely too many ways to score for the Jets to keep up in this one.
PHI@NYG: 20-24; With the news that Wentz is likely out for the season, the Eagles playoff success chances have taken somewhat of a nose dive. This match-up with Wentz under center was not likely to be particularly close, but without him and given it is a divisional rivalry game, I think Eli Manning and the Giants may just sneak this one.
ARI@WAS: 17-23; With both coaching staffs likely coaching for their jobs over the next few weeks, this match-up is more than just two playoff disappointments finishing out this season. Given his contract situation and need to perform over the next few weeks, expect Kirk Cousins to provide the difference in this game between two closely matched but flawed rosters.
LAR@SEA: 24-30; Tough losses for both rosters last week against two of the better teams in the league. With a division title on the line there is plenty to play for, even though both squads should make the playoffs anyway. I am going to give the edge to the Seahawks given they are at home and playoff tested. Don't be surprised if the Rams win this one, but a Seahawks win would leave a cracking finish to this two horse divisional race.
NE@PIT: 30-27; After two contrasting performances last week, both teams will be wanting to win this game of the week as it gives control of the AFC to the victor. This match-up is discussed in detail higher up in the column, with the traveling Patriots getting the edge due to the standout nature of their offensive attack and the fact the Steelers defense looked somewhat weaker without Ryan Shazier in the line-up.
TEN@SF: 24-20; A much tougher match-up for the Titans than it would have been a few weeks ago. Jimmy Garopollo has provided two consecutive wins for the 49ers and has breathed life into a team that looked lost a month ago. Unfortunately for him this team is neither the Browns nor the Texans, and I'd expect Marcos Mariota and company to have too much talent for the 49ers to be able to keep up.
DAL@OAK: 24-21; With one week left of the Elliott suspension, the Cowboys are still holding on to playoff relevance. Coming up against a Raiders team that is lacking consistency and has a few injuries, there is no better chance for the Cowboys to win one more before their star running back returns. With a renewed emphasis on the running game preventing teams from loading up on Dak Prescott, I reckon the Cowboys have just enough firepower to sneak this one.
ATL@TB: 31-17; With plenty of rest and coming off the biggest win of their season so far, expect the Falcons to be too much for the Bucs in this NFC South match-up. With an improving defense and the knowledge that Matt Ryan is unlikely to play badly two weeks in a row, I believe the Falcons have too much talent to take their foot off the playoff gas now.
