Week 3: NFL Story-lines & Predictions
Hello and welcome to week 3 of ‘An Englishman’s thoughts from across the pond’. With two weeks down, plenty of team are starting to position themselves for a postseason run. This week we look at some of the key headlines in the NFL and where some teams may have misjudged their outlook for 2018. Without further ado let’s dive in to some of the key stories…
1) Can Dallas offense return to the heights of 2016?
In hindsight Dak Prescott had the perfect opening to his career in Dallas. He had the NFL’s best offensive line, a star rookie running mate in Ezekiel Elliott and three key pass catchers in Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Cole Beasley. With all that in play the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2016, since they are 11-9 and they very much show it. What has changed for Dak and company? Ultimately the personnel on the roster have changed with time in the pocket and individual match-up receivers not nearly as strong as they used to be. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott will give any offense and opportunity to compete at a high level, but comparing their success in 2016 now with hindsight suggests the success was more than just a product of the rookie’s play. Personally I believe they will struggle to replicate that success without health on the offensive line and a scheme change that brings some more complex routes that can help the Cowboys receivers get open. What certainly isn’t up for debate is it will be interesting to watch them try and improve as the limelight is always on ‘America’s Team’.
2) Can the Broncos continue and build from their solid start to 2018?
John Elway will be absolutely thrilled with the job his roster has done so far this season. The defense has started to look like the unit that carried them through the Manning stretch of dominance and Case Keenum has certainly brought their offense to life to a point. What will be interesting to see now is can they continue this momentum? With a tough division and inconsistency on offense requiring a late turn around against the Raiders, the Broncos are likely going to need to continue up the improvement curve to make the playoffs. They certainly have the ability to get there with the youth on this roster infusing new life into the play of key veterans. Playing in Denver will always provide them an advantage to a point and they may become the favourites to upset the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West.
3) Did the Giants make the wrong decision to rebuild on the fly for 2018?
New GM Dave Gettlemen may in time rue his decision to draft Saquon Barkely with the fourth pick in the NFL draft. Not that the pick itself was poor, but the direction he chose to take the Giants franchise in was more of a makeover than a full rebuild. Now it is quite clear that the Giants lack the talent on their roster to truly compete. With an ageing veteran QB, a porous offensive line and a defense that is struggling massively in the secondary, the Giants season is looking like it may be at a breaking point. Would he have been better off trading away Eli Manning and drafting their next franchise QB? Could he have got some decent value for the veterans on the roster? I guess we will never know but what is not up for debate is the next couple of weeks are important in defining whether he made the correct decision, because if not there is likely to be a long rebuild for the G-men.
4) Can the Seahawks still compete after a disappointing start to the season?
The rebuild in Seattle may be potentially in full flow after two disappointing results for Pete Carrol’s men. It is certainly possible to argue that the Seahawks have lost their mojo after the defense has been gutted and is currently performing at a fraction of what it was two or three years ago. With a significant personnel change and a focus on building on the offensive side of the ball, the Seahawks have essentially hedged their bets on Russel Wilson and so far struggled to get the right results. Wilson certainly give them the ability to compete on any night but his consistency alongside their offensive line play normally limits their ability to perform. At this point the Seahawks have a potentially exciting offense with a defense that is struggling to get teams off the field. This weekend will be a real litmus test for them and their aspirations to challenge for a playoff spot (vs the Cowboys). The likely conclusion is there may have been too much of an overhaul of this roster for them to be challenging for the NFC West this season.
5) Will this be the week Cleveland finally break their winless spell?
If special teams had gone their way this season specifically field goal kicking, we wouldn’t still be asking this question. The Browns have certainly improved this season and it is only a matter of time until they break their winless streak and are more than likely competitive in a wide open AFC North. With a new kicker signed, Hue Jackson and company can hopefully return to the job of putting their team in the best position to win. With a defense that is capable of slowing down two of the best offenses in the NFL, the Browns offense only needs to be passable give this team a chance. Tyrod Tayler certainly has that ability even if he sometimes struggles as a traditional pocket QB and with the Jets coming to town they will likely not get many better opportunities to break this unwanted record of the franchise that dates back to December 2016.
6) When will the Cardinals decide to end the Sam Bradford experiment and embrace their inevitable rebuild?
So far this season the Cardinals have scored 6 points in total with zero touchdowns to the offense’s name. For a veteran QB with an accomplished running back behind him (David Johnson), that output is beyond disappointing. Clearly the Cardinals roster is in flux this season with a great deal of changes on defense, no Carson Palmer and no Bruce Arians. The best play for a team in a tough division is likely to now rebuild for the future. Bradford certainly has some value as a veteran for a competing team, but taking up valuable development time for Josh Rosen will likely be seen as a waste at some point soon. If the Cardinals offensive output doesn’t improve drastically over the next fortnight, expect there to be a significant roster move at the game’s most important position.
7) Are the Jags now the team to beat in the AFC?
Jacksonville’s performance against the Patriots on Sunday afternoon was likely the most impressive performance to date this season. This young Jags roster performance was so impressive for a plethora of reasons, with the most important being they seem to have learned from the mistakes that doomed them in January. They attacked the Patriots on the edge, they weren’t afraid to roll the dice (even on fourth down) and most importantly they didn’t take their foot off the gas. With a defense that has the potential to be the most dominant in the entire NFL, the Jags are likely to be in with a chance in every game they play this year. What has elevated their play so far this year is their offense. Blake Bortles looks to have matured and developed, their offensive line play is solid and their receivers are performing well in one on one situations so far. Teams are likely to find ways to slow them down somewhat, but if the route to the Superbowl goes through Jacksonville they are likely to be an extremely tough out for any playoff contender with the talent they have assembled on this roster.
8) Which surprise 2-0 team is likely to see a return to earth this weekend?
The surprise unbeaten teams at this point are likely in this order: Bucs, Dolphins, Bengals and Broncos. There are certainly legitimate reasons to focus on for each of these teams about their ability to continue their hot start, but for me the most suspect roster is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. ‘Fitzmagic’ as he has been recently labelled by the press has certainly lived up to that billing so far but he has a track record of extreme highs followed by devastating lows. Outside the performance of their back-up QB there are also reasons for doubt in Tampa. They have yet to come up against a roster playing at full strength, their defense is largely untested, the team is very young and they likely play in the toughest division in the NFC. There are certainly big bright spots to focus on, but Tampa likely have a lot of work to do to continue on their hot start and if they do another franchise altering decision will likely arrive quickly potentially causing other issues for a franchise that is looking to right their ship for the long term.
9) At 0-2 which team is likely to beat the odds and return to playoff contention by the end of the season?
Realistically there are perhaps two other teams that could take this honour on talent (Seahawks and Raiders) but the only likely candidate to lift themselves out of this historically difficult hole are the Houston Texans. Their issues so far have been slightly led by a difficult schedule and more obviously caused by the inconsistent play of their offense in particular DeShaun Watson. Why do I have such confidence that they may be able to beat the odds and make the playoffs? 1) They have one of the best defenses in the NFL when healthy, with a front seven that can pressure any QB on a given night 2) They are in a conference that is more wide open than it has been in terms of playoff opportunity than it has been for a long term and 3) DeShaun Watson’s troubles so far look like those of a man coming off a serious knee injury. He will get his zip back on his throws, he will step up in the pocket in time and he will force less of the game as it all becomes more familiar too him. Ultimately with the talent they have on their roster, anything than a playoff run from here would be a disappointment for Bill O’Brian and his men.
10) Players of the week
Offensive player of the week – Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs): Definitely worth giving an honourable mention to ‘Fitzmagic’ here but Mahomes was just too good in an extremely tough game in Pittsburgh. Six touchdown passes, 326 passing yards, a bunch of Chiefs records and a sky high passer rating exemplify what he has meant to this team so far and if he keeps it up the Chiefs brass will feel great about their decision to move on from Alex Smith in the offseason.
Defensive player of the week – Danny Trevathan (LB, Bears): A second week on top for a Bears player. Honestly Khalil Mack could have received this award for a second week but it felt wrong not to highlight the play of one of his teammates who stood out on the night they honoured Bears linebacking great Brian Urlacher. Trevathan looked like one of the ‘monsters of midway’ himself on Monday night with two sacks and a key forced fumble of Russel Wilson.
Game predictions:
Overall record from week 1: 72%
NYJ@CLE; 17-30: With the Browns having been competitive in the first two weeks of the season, this is likely to be the game that finally ends their winless streak. The defense looks good, the offense although conservative (and potentially simplistic in nature) looks respectable and special teams has very much let them down so far. The Jets are by no means a walkover and this game is likely to be a defensive struggle, with home-field taking the edge in this one.
X-factor: Browns Special Teams – With Browns kicker Zane Gonzalez to blame for the team’s record so far, this week it will be important for all three units on the roster to perform. With a new kicker (due to Gonzalez injury) taking the points available will be vital to ending their winless run.
NO@ATL; 30-37: This has the potential to be a high scoring game with both teams struggling to find consistency early on in the season. The edge goes to the Falcons here due to their superior defensive effort so far and the fact they are at home for a key divisional match-up.
X-factor: Saints defense – This unit performed better against the Browns but was still liable to giving up the big play. With the amount of threats that the Falcons have on offense, they cannot afford to have an off day nor show the inconsistency that they have shown so far this season.
DEN@BAL; 21-17: A fantastic litmus test for two still largely unknown quantities. Both rosters are still known for defensive toughness and so the performance of each team’s offense (and their ceiling) is likely to determine the outcome of this one. Case Keenum has underwhelmed so far this season, but Flacco’s inconsistency is likely to be the difference in this one.
X-factor: Joe Flacco – The former Superbowl winning QB is very much in the eye of the storm these days with LaMarr Jackson waiting on the side-lines. He beat what is likely to turn out to be a weak Bills roster in week 1 and had too many turnovers last week against the Bengals, so his level of performance this week will be interesting to follow as the Ravens tend to go as he goes.
CIN@CAR; 21-24: Another tough game to call, with both rosters showing great potential. The Bengals certainly have the capacity to be a tad inconsistent, so the home team are likely to just have the edge in this one.
X-factor: Carolina Offense – This offense has all the parts to be devastating for opposing defenses especially with Cam Newton under center. Unfortunately they have been frustratingly inconsistent. This unit will be the key in this game and for a chance at a potential playoff run.
NYG@HOU; 20-34: A match-up between two very different 0-2 teams. The Texans have too much talent to really be challenged in this one, while the Giants still can’t seem to protect Eli Manning and so their chances of winning this one seem pretty slim.
X-factor: DeShaun Watson – The second year QB has underwhelmed so far in 2018, clearly showing the after effects of his ACL injury. It will be interesting to see how his mentality changes against a defense that has struggled so far this season and whether this can be a building block to getting the Texans back into contention.
TEN@JAX; 14-27: The Jags proved last weekend that they are tough to beat at home, especially when Blake Bortles is making plays. Their defense is absolutely suffocating and it is tough to see an undermanned Titans offense being able to keep them in this game.
X-factor: Blake Bortles – In the face of the team’s defensive success, it is sometimes easy to forget how much Bortles has developed in the last season or so. Without his security blanket in Leonard Fournette, the Jags QB dominated the Pats defense last week and if that continues the Jags are likely to become serious Superbowl contenders.
SF@KC; 24-21: A match-up between two of the up and coming rosters in the NFL. Expect both teams QB’s to make big plays in this one and I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won this game. The edge goes to the 49ers who really need this one to keep in touch with the Rams in the NFC West.
X-factor: Jimmy Garopollo – Having failed to keep pace with the Rams in week 1, the young 49ers QB looked much more assured against the Lions. His progress will be key to the 49ers chances this season and he looks like he is ready to keep pace with some of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
OAK@MIA; 24-21: The Raiders were much improved in Denver blowing a fourth quarter lead that should have been assured. This week will give Jon Gruden another opportunity to win his first game since returning to Oakland and it should be a real test for the Dolphins. Expect this to be an extremely close game, with the Raiders having the edge given what a 0-3 start would do to the morale of the franchise.
X-factor: Marshawn Lynch – The former Seahawks RB has looked to turn back the clock over the past couple of weeks. If he continues to perform like he has, he should relieve some of the pressure on Derek Carr and help the offense move the chains and get closer to the form of the 2016-17 season.
BUF@MIN; 10-31: This is likely to be as one-sided a game as one will see this season. The Vikings still look like the class of the NFC, while the Bills are a complete mess. If this game is still close at half time, the Bills will be doing well and exceeding expectations.
X-factor: Bills defense – With a new QB under center, the Bills must turn to their defense to enable them a chance to remain in games. So far they have drastically underperformed, it will be interesting to see whether former defensive mastermind Sean McDermott can rebuild his defense and give his team a chance.
IND@PHI; 24-30: Carson Wentz’s return to the line-up is certainly a positive for the NFL and it should be for the Eagles as well. As competent as Nick Foles has been, Wentz provides an element that truly makes this team a Superbowl contender. Expect this game to be close with the Eagles having the edge in this one due to the talent they have on both ends of the field.
X-factor: Eagles defense – With Wentz’s return likely to have a couple of teething issues, expect the defense to step up to counter the threat of Andrew Luck and co. They will be disappointed with their performance last week and will be looking to prove they are a top level defense this week. They don’t tend to have back to back disappointing performances in a row.
GB@WAS; 28-20: Aaron Rodgers was very impressive last week and if it wasn’t for a debateable pass interference call they would be 2-0. The Redskins failed to impress last week and have a tough assignment in slowing down the Packers offense in this one. It is hard for one to see Alex Smith and co. keeping up in this one.
X-factor: Packers Offensive Line – Rodgers still faced too much pressure last week (even on one leg), if they hope to go deep into the playoffs this unit will need to improve week on week. Rodgers will be hoping that starts this Sunday in Washington.
LAC@LAR; 30-35: The battle of the two LA teams should be a fantastic game to watch. It will be fascinating to see how both teams approach this one. This is likely to be a high scoring affair with both rosters looking to outscore the other. The edge for me in this one goes to the Rams due to the superior talent level on defense and the fact that this one is being played in the Coliseum.
X-factor: Chargers Edge Rushers – Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are one of the most exciting tandems in the NFL and they will need to be at their best in this one. If they are able to disrupt Jared Goff’s rhythm and slow down Todd Gurley they may be able to give the Chargers a vital edge to sneak a victory in the battle for LA fans bragging rights.
CHI@ARI; 31-14: With Arizona struggling to score so far this year, they now face a Bears defense that has one of the most improved defensive units in the league. Yes this game may be closer than I have predicted, but it is tough to see the Cardinals competing with anyone if they can’t score enough to stay in games.
X-factor: Sam Bradford – The veteran QB has underwhelmed so far this year behind a so-so offensive line. With the clamour rising to start rookie Josh Rosen, his performance will be under scrutiny even more than usual. With the clear issues on offense so far this year, the Cardinals need a much improved performance from Bradford in this one if they want to stand a chance.
DAL@SEA; 21-24: A match-up between two rosters struggling to find an identity. The Seahawks have really struggled on defense this year, whilst the Cowboys offense has so far sputtered out of the gate. This match-up will be vital in this one, with the Seahawks just getting the edge in this one due to being at home and having more talent on their roster.
X-factor: Cowboys Wide Receivers – This unit have no-showed so far this season, with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten both gone from the team, Dak Prescott will need some reliable targets to appear if they hope to match the lofty pre-season expectations that they set.
NE@DET; 31-24: The Pats certainly came back down to earth last Sunday in Jacksonville with Brady struggling in the Florida heat. Playing the Lions should be more familiar given the defensive scheme that Matt Patricia runs in Detroit, although the same could be said of how the Lions may attack the Pats defense. Ultimately the Patriots rarely lose two games in a row and so far the Lions have left something to be desired about their full game performances after two weeks of the Matt Patricia era.
X-factor: Patriots Defense – Having struggled to contain Blake Bortles last week, the unit will be looking to perform much better against Matthew Stafford and company. With the issues the Lions offense has had this season an improved performance will be a baseline given the aspirations of the Patriots this season.
PIT@TB; 35-21: A match-up between two teams with contrasting fortunes so far this season. The Steelers are very much looking to right the ship while the Buccaneers are hoping Ryan Fitzpatrick can continue on his rich vein of form. I’d expect this game to be close, with the Steelers edging this one via the arm of Ben Roethlisberger and a likely regression to the norm from the Buccaneers offense.
X-factor: Ryan Fitzpatrick – He will be the x-factor for this team as long as he remains under center. His first two weeks have definitely provided a welcome positive jolt to the Bucs franchise this season, it will be interesting to see how much longer it lasts.