Week 4: NFL Predictions
Hello and welcome to week 4 of ‘An Englishman’s thoughts from across the pond’. Due to time constraints I am only uploading the betting preview tonight. With any luck the storylines will be out tomorrow…
Game predictions:
Overall record since week 1: 63%
MIN@LAR; 21-28: Two of the most talented rosters in the league face-off on the Thursday night showdown. With Minnesota reeling after their strange loss to Buffalo this is likely to be a tight one as they aim to prove their critics wrong. However, there is simply too much talent and momentum currently carrying the Rams, with home-field taking the edge for me in this one.
X-factor: Vikings Offense – Having largely been shut out by the Bills last week, Kurt Cousins and co will be looking to prove their doubters wrong. Things do not get any easier coming up against the Rams and if they hope to win, they will need to find a way to score this week.
MIA@NE; 20-28: A massive showdown in the AFC East with the old guard very much facing their challengers. Expect this to be a tense affair especially given what is at stake for both rosters. Rarely does one see New England play badly for a long stretch. With their division up for grabs and a home game to boot, expect the Pats to get back to their winning ways in this one.
X-factor: The Patriots Offense – Their performance has been somewhat mediocre over the past two weeks which I slightly surprising. As mentioned at the start of the season, Brady is still trying to find comfort with his receivers. This team tends to go by the success of no.12 and that is likely to define who wins Sunday’s game.
PHI@TEN; 30-24: An exciting match-up between two potential playoff teams. The edge in this one has to go to the higher ceiling for both the Eagles offense and defense in this one.
X-factor: Carson Wentz – He looked rusty but good in his first game back. If he can return to last year’s form, the Eagles will be very difficult to keep pace with.
CIN@ATL; 24-34: After a disappointing home OT loss to the Saints, the Falcons will be looking to right the ship this weekend. The Bengals proved their inconsistent streak last weekend and might struggle away from home in this one.
X-factor: The Falcons defense – The defense quite simply put has not been as good as advertised so far this season. Their ceiling this season is defined by this unit’s play and if they improve they may become difficult to stop.
TB@CHI; 20-27: An exciting game between two up and coming rosters so far this season. ‘Fitzmagic’ didn’t quite work last week so it will be interesting to see how he performs with his job on the line. The Bears have the edge in this one due to their dominant ground game and defense that has played particularly well at home so far this year.
X-factor: Ryan Fitzpatrick – While he remain starting QB, he will most likely be the reason as to whether the Bucs win or lose.
DET@DAL; 14-20: A match-up between struggling NFL rosters. Redemption and an even record is on the line in this one, so expect and ugly game and a tight battle. Both rosters have clear weaknesses in this one, but for me the edge lies with the Cowboys and home-field.
X-factor: Matthew Stafford – The former no1 pick has simply not been himself so far this season. For Detroit to have any success they need him to return to the franchise QB form that has sent them to the playoffs in the past. Without him near his top form, there is likely not enough talent on this roster for the Lions to succeed.
BUF@GB; 24-30: What a turnout for the books the Bills provided last week. Can rookie Josh Allen keep it going for a second week in a row? He might, but playing against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field seems like a step to far for me.
X-factor: Bills defense – If they play like they did last week, this unit will give the Bills a chance to get back into the playoff hunt.
HOU@IND; 20-30: Things are now starting to look troubling in Houston. With a tough trip to Indy this week, this is a game they simply cannot afford to lose. They are likely to struggle to score enough points to win this one.
X-factor: Texans Offense – They have so far fallen flat on their face through three games. There are definitely some adjustments that can be made, but it is hard to understand how this much talent struggles to produce results. So far this is the unit that has let them down and until that changes, it is difficult to see them winning many games.
NYJ@JAX; 14-31: A game between two AFC rosters at very different ends of their development path. Expect the Jags to pull clear in this one, on the back of their strong defense and a rebound from Blake Bortles.
X-factor: Jets defense – This unit has looked dominant at times. If they can put in a full performance, they have a chance to give the Jets a real chance to win games this year.
SEA@ARI; 28-17: With another rookie QB likely to be in the fold, Arizona are now looking to the future this season. With than in mind, expect the Seahawks to be too much for the young rookie QB and his slightly lacklustre Cardinals roster.
X-factor: Josh Rosen – With Sam Bradford benched, the former UCLA product has his first opportunity to show what he can do. QB’s win games in this league, so his readiness to compete will likely affect whether the Cardinals have a chance in any of their upcoming games.
CLE@OAK; 24-17: A tough match-up to call in what is likely to be Baker Mayfield’s first start. The momentum the Browns bought in the second half of last week’s game, gives them the edge in this one.
X-factor: Baker Mayfield – The number one pick excelled once on the field last week. The offense looked completely different in his hands and if this continues, the Browns have a real opportunity to be playing meaningful games later on this season.
SF@LAC; 10-30: With the news of Garopollo’s injury, the 49ers are likely now looking to next season to compete. Combine that with a Chargers roster that is much better than its 1-2 standing suggests and this game is likely to be a tough game for 49ers fans.
X-factor: 49ers defense – With Garopollo out, the burden falls on the defense to keep the team in games. So far they have been inconsistent, it will be interesting to see how they develop over the next few games.
NO@NYG; 30-21: Finally the Giants showed some life last week in Houston. Is it enough to change most people’s opinions? Unlikely simply as their issues are still plain to exploit. Plus the Saints are likely to carve up their defense unlike the Texans last weekend.
X-factor: Giants Offensive Line – With the dynamic front seven of the Saints defense, the Giants O-line has its work cut out for them. If they can even this battle, they may give Eli Manning a chance to win in what is likely to be a shootout.
BAL@PIT; 14-21: Pittsburgh showed some life last weekend in what is likely to be an AFC North battle to the death. The Ravens have also shown their mettle so far, but it is tough to slow down the Steelers offense at home in Heinz Field.
X-factor: Ben Roethlisberger – The strong armed QB looked more like himself last week. With the defense struggling to carve out its identity, it is very much down to this man if the Steelers hope to win this one and remain in the playoff race.
KC@DEN; 35-24: Patrick Mahomes has so far obliterated every challenge that has been put before him. At this point it is tough to bet against him, even heading into the cauldron that is Sports Authority Field.
X-factor: Broncos Defense – Can this unit slow down the Chiefs enough to give Case Keenum and company a chance. That is the big question heading into this Monday night match-up
