Week 6: Early playoff picture starting to emere
Good evening NFL fans and welcome to another instalment of An Englishman's thoughts from across the pond. Another week in the NFL and another round of extremely unpredictable games! It is hard not to be excited by the difficulty of not knowing what will happen although these first five or so weeks have started to confirm some preseason theories and dismantle others...So without further ado let’s get into it:
1) After a fantastic spectacle Sunday night and another victory, can anyone stop Alex Smith and the Chiefs?
What a Sunday night game to watch for the neutral fan, although in essence the Chiefs never looked like they were going to lose this game after a dominating first half. Alex Smith is currently playing like an MVP candidate, they have the favourite for Rookie of the Year at Running Back and they have a defense with quality players littered throughout. These are certainly positive reasons as to why their streak can continue. What further backs this up is something I have failed to mention so far. Coach Andy Reid leads one of the strongest and most well respected coaching staffs in NFL and has done for the best part of 20 years. His teams are well prepared, have good gameplans and are well drilled in the key fundamentals of football. The reasons above give plenty to back-up the assertion that they will be prepared for playoff football. The key question is how long they can remain undefeated for, especially in the extremely tough AFC West.
2) How will the Rams bounce back after their loss at home to the Seahawks?
So the Rams got brought back to earth last weekend with a disappointing but not disheartening loss to the Seahawks. It certainly would have been nice to secure a two game division lead but there are certainly reasons to remain positive in LA. Firstly, the Seattle defense was clearly out to prove a point and they perhaps came across a unit that is rounding into 2015 form. Despite this, the Rams moved the ball well and provided themselves enough opportunities to compete (there were two disappointing Jared Goff int's). Secondly, they didn't look out of place against a playoff contender. Yes they lost, but they lost by less than a touchdown to one of the four best teams in football over the last five years. Finally, they still haven't lost their lead in the NFC West. Yes it is now shared with the Seahawks, but they still very much control their own destiny and a test against an emerging Jaguars defense is just the challenge they need to right the ship. Granted it may be a year to early for these Rams, but don't forget there is plenty of talent littered throughout this roster that many believe Jeff Fisher failed to utilise properly in the previous two seasons. I’d expect them to bounce right back from this loss and beat the Jags on the road this weekend.
3) How will Houston cope without J.J. Watt?
I think ultimately the Texans will be able to survive without J.J. Watt. It is certainly a blow to the most talented defense in the AFC, but their play on Sunday night suggested they still have enough players who can consistently bring pressure. What may prove to be the key to their success without him, may be their growing prowess on the offensive side of the game. DeShaun Watson had another fantastic game under center and seems to be going from strength to strength. If this continues, the role of the Houston defense may dramatically change from their focal point to something that complements what they do on the offensive side of the ball.
4) Who is going to make it out of the AFC North?
Suddenly this has become a three horse race. The forgotten about Bengals are only a game out of first, the Steelers are slumping and the Ravens have been about as inconsistent as they come. The one thing you can say for certain is the Browns are not going to win this division, beyond that there are reasons to back any of the other three teams:
Steelers - They were certainly the preseason darlings given the talent that this team has on the offensive side of the ball. The three B's (Big Ben, Bell and Brown) were expected to pull this team to the top of the AFC. So far this hasn't happened, the offense has sputtered and the defense has been somewhat leaky. Crucial to the Steelers chances of winning the division are the potent offense returning to past form and the defense forcing more turnovers.
Ravens - Their chances of winning the division have hardly changed over the years of Jim Harbaugh's tenure. The Ravens still play hardnosed football with a defensive edge, a solid running game and a deep play-action passing game. The inconsistency so far has been on the offensive side of the football. If Joe Flacco & co. can make better use of their great field position, they could certainly be the team to beat.
Bengals - What a turnaround for Marvin Smith's squad. Three weeks ago they looked dead and buried, now they are right back into the thick of the divisional race. Key to this resurgence and their chances are the play of Andy Dalton and his receivers, a mobile running game and stout defensive play. With the return of Vontaze Burfict from suspension and Dalton finding form, these Bengals could again prove a tough out.
Still if one were a betting man it is hard to bet against the talent the Steelers have compiled on the offensive side of the football. This division race is certainly going to come down to the wire, with all three teams well coached they are likely to be within a game of the leader right until week 17.
5) Are the Eagles legitimate playoff and Superbowl contenders in year 2 of Carson Wentz's reign?
It is certainly beginning to look like it, especially after their dominating performance last week against the Cardinals. There are two thing that really seem to stand out in comparison from to the team last year. Firstly, the Eagles seem to have created more a vertical downfield passing attack which is utilising Nelson Agolor and Alshon Jeffrey to great effect. Secondly, they seem to be creating much more pressure from their front seven which in turn has created a much stingier defense. Playoff football is all about creating match-up problems for the opposition and the Eagles have certainly begun to do that on both sides of the ball. Furthermore their ability to limit opposing offenses should keep them in games even when the offense is not firing on all cylinders. Their game against Carolina tonight should be a fantastic litmus test to how their progress has come along in Year 2 of the new regime.
6) How should Bears fans feel about Mitch Trubisky's debut?
The Bears fans should certainly be optimistic about their rookie QB's debut. He looked poised in the pocket, threw on the run incredibly efficiently and looks much more athletic than Mike Glennon, both arm strength wise and with his feet. His biggest issue (yes he also threw a disappointing interception to Harrison Smith) is the talent around him. His two best wide receivers are on injured reserve, he has an O-line that is weak enough that they have designed movements out of the pocket and he has a defense that is in the bottom third in yards allowed and forcing turnovers. So ultimately he looks like he has the talent to succeed but this is not the year where he has enough around to him to prove whether he is their long-term answer at Quarterback. As first appearances go, it was certainly something which fans and coaches can be positive about.
7) 0-5 misery for three teams, how long will it last?
Cleveland & San Francisco - For both of the aforementioned teams their losing streak may last quite a long time, and some of this is by design. With both front offices and coaches given long term contracts on the understanding it will take a while to rebuild, it makes sense to understand what talent you have and wait for more to arrive. This 'arriving' talent is most likely to come through the draft, so with both teams aiming to increase their draft capital, losing and accumulating picks (which both have done) is the most efficient way to do so. Does that stop them from trying to win? Certainly not, it just isn't their only aim over the next few months.
New York Giants - If you are Jerry Reese & Ben McAdoo you must be wondering what you can do to buy a win and how much longer they are likely to last. In comparison to the Browns & 49ers this team has way too much talent to be where it currently is. They are certainly the most likely team to earn a win in the win column but at some point it will make sense to shift focus to next year. If that were to happen the Giants certainly have some big questions to answer, with the most pressing being is Eli Manning still the answer at QB?
8) Will the Falcons get back on track this weekend?
For them to truly be Superbowl contenders they must. As has been mentioned in previous weeks when talking about the Patriots, one of their best traits is their ability to come back the next week and not lose games back to back. Coming off a bye-week should have enabled them to rest their bodies, fix the communication issues they had on both sides of the ball and air out any concerns they may have had. Ultimately with an offense that should average 30 points a game and a defense that is opportunistic by design (don't forget Dan Quinn ran the Seahawks defense prior to this), this team is primed to take advantage of opponent mistakes (which Jay Cutler is well known for) and any defensive weaknesses a team may have. Also consider they will be heading to New England next week for their Superbowl re-match and potentially their most difficult game of the regular season. A home game against the Dolphins is the perfect game to round back into form.
9) How will the Adrian Peterson trade affect the Cardinals disappointing start?
The AP experiment clearly wasn't working in New Orleans, where he didn't enjoy being a rotational back in Sean Payton's bullpen. This is a sensible move from Steve Keim, where he sensed an opportunity to get a talented back at a fraction of his true value, whilst filling a need of great importance while David Johnson is injured. An improved running game would certainly take some pressure of Carson Palmer and his O-line but is an aging Adrian Peterson the answer? He will certainly get the opportunity to prove he is, with Chris Johnson's success as a two down back in Arizona in the past potentially suggesting a successful route for Peterson to follow. As to whether Peterson can fix all that ails the Cardinals offense, only time will tell…
10) Strongest/Weakest divisions after 5 weeks
Strongest: NFC South - Statistically by team record, this is the toughest division in football and it’s hard to fault that choice so far. Each team is .500 or better, three teams are currently averaging close to 30 points a night, there are three MVP quarterbacks in the division and the last two NFC champions have come from this division. The Falcons and the Panthers are currently excelling at the top of the division, but this race is likely to be affected by all teams within the division. The likelihood remains that three teams may make it out into the playoffs, although there is certainly a long way to go before we know who that will be...
Weakest: AFC North/NFC West: Statistically two divisions share this honour, with the answer being slightly surprising as both are traditionally #two of the stronger divisions in the NFL. Each division is held back by a winless team, while intra-division battles have also taken their toll on team records. It will be interesting to see whether the team struggles continue over the season or teams like the Seahawks, Rams, Steelers and Ravens pull their divisions of the proverbial floor.
Players of the week:
Offensive player of the week: Cam Newton (Panthers, QB) - So much for the criticism he has faced over the opening weeks, he silenced all those doubters with a league high 355 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and a big game-winning drive against a potential playoff team. Cam Newton, I tip my cap to you.
Defensive player of the week: Vontaze Burfict (Bengals, LB) - What a return for the oft-suspended line-backer. Since his return the team has had two wins, limited opposing defenses to 12 points a game and on Sunday he had 13 tackles and a sack. Who said one player doesn't make a team, Marvin Smith will certainly be arguing that since his star line-backers return.
Score Predictions:
Last week's record: 6-8
Record since week 1: 58%
PHI@CAR: 31-27; Battle of NFC contenders. This should be an incredibly tight game with both teams offenses looking like they can score points. The difference in this game will be the Eagles ability to pressure Cam Newton and highlight the issues in his offensive line that have been hidden over the previous couple of weeks.
MIA@ATL: 21-35; Coming off their bye week and a disappointing loss to the Bills, expect the Falcons to be too much for the Dolphins to handle. Rarely does a Superbowl contender lose two in a row, especially when they are at home.
CHI@BAL: 17-24; Solid start for rookie QB Mitch Trubisky, but as Monday night showed he simply does not have enough talent around him to challenge the better teams. The Ravens have certainly been relatively up and down so far, but expect them to have a slight edge in this one on both sides of the ball.
CLE@HOU: 14-31; Even after losing J.J. Watt for the season, the Texans have too much talent for this young Browns team. They have certainly showed progress but not the kind that will slow down a Texans team that can now score on offense as well as on defense.
GB@MIN: 28-24; Key NFC North match-up. With the Minnesota QB situation blurry at best, and the Packers O-line finally keeping Aaron Rodgers upright, I am going to give the edge to the team that has the potential to score more points. Especially given their miraculous late turn around against the Cowboys last week.
DET@NO: 21-24; Intriguing match-up between two potentially high-powered offenses. Expect this game to be close, with the edge going to the home side and their newly found defensive prowess. This should enable Drew Brees and co. the ability to defend a lead rather than chase one.
NE@NYJ: 31-20; Who would have thought this would be a meaningful match-up two months ago? I for one would have laughed. However, one cannot predict what will happen in the NFL and that is why it is so exciting. Expect these bitter divisional rivals to provide a real spectacle for fans to enjoy, with New England's talent and experience just overcoming the Jets.
SF@WAS: 14-31; With the 49ers firmly focused on the future, this game isn't likely to provide an upset for NFL fans. Expect the Redskins with their talent on offense to comfortably take this game.
TB@ARI: 14-21; Interesting match-up between two talented but inconsistent teams. This is likely to go right down to the wire, with the home side getting the edge for me. Don't be surprised if Jameis Winston & Co. win this one though.
LAR@JAX: 31-23; Another match-up few would have thought mattered before the season started. With both teams currently leading or jointly leading their division this is a game of real consequence. The key difference here is the starting QB's with Jared Goff comfortably having the edge over Blake Bortles (who does his best to hold his side back each week). Jacksonville's defense will keep it close, but expect the Rams to force Bortles into making some vital errors.
PIT@KC: 24-31; Incredibly difficult match-up for a sputtering Steelers outfit. Nothing currently suggests that the Chiefs are going to drop a game, especially at home. The Steelers certainly have the talent to beat them, but I am not sure they currently have the cohesion and consistency to do so.
LAC@OAK: 21-27; An important divisional game. With news that Derek Carr will be playing on Sunday, expect the Raiders to return to winning ways against a Chargers team that is proving to be a difficult out each week.
NYG@DEN: 14-31; With the Giants still winless and the Broncos needing a win to keep up with their division rival Chiefs, I expect the change of altitude and overall talent difference to be too much for the Giants to overcome. Ben McAdoo incidentally must be sitting on a very warm seat right now.
IND@TEN: 14-24; Important AFC South match-up. With both teams still in the thick of the division race and both starting QB's currently out of action, it is incredibly difficult to predict a winner. Knowing that Andrew Luck will not play and Mariota might, I am going to back the hometown Titans to scrape to victory in what could be quite an ugly game.
