Week 7: A new reality in the NFL
Good afternoon sports fans and welcome to another week of An Englishman's Thoughts from Across the Pond. Last week we continued to learn the difficulty of predicting what will happen in the National Football League with injuries sadly playing a key role in deciding some results. It didn't take too long for the one undefeated side (the Chiefs) to be defeated and we also have one less side who are without a win. As usual there is plenty to talk about this week with key divisional match-ups, fading playoff hopes, a Superbowl rematch and anthem kneeling still being hot topics throughout the NFL. Without further ado let's dive into it...
1) How will Green Bay survive without Aaron Rodgers?
Talk about injuries that have a massive playoff impact, this could be the one that affects the whole of the NFC. The state of the NFC North is discussed below but it is essentially wide open with the news that Aaron Rodgers has fractured his collarbone. This injury turns the Packers from a potential Superbowl contender to a squad that may struggle to reach the playoffs. With a running game that has struggled mightily even with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers chances roundly fall upon a defense that has been inconsistent so far and a QB in Brett Hundley who had never played any meaningful snaps until last weekend. If I were a betting man I would suggest that the Packers postseason chances are over. However considering the fact that no-one is sure whether Rodgers is out for the year, if he returns with four weeks left anything can happen so I will reserve judgement on the Packers playoff chances for now. There are even rumours that Colin Kaepernick may get a call soon.
2) Which teams have absolutely must win games considering their fading playoff hopes?
Oakland Raiders: At 2-4, the Raiders face a must win game at the Coliseum tonight against the class of the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs. Purely in a logical sense a defeat here would leave them four games out of first place in the division. A bigger issue is it would leave them three games behind .500 and therefore well out of the wildcard playoff race which is much more realistic at this point. In a division that features no easy games, Derek Carr and company need to overcome their injuries and prove to the NFL that they still belong in the playoff discussion tomorrow morning.
Dallas Cowboys: At 2-3, and 3 games out of first in the division, the Cowboys much like the Raiders have left themselves on the outside looking in. They certainly need to win Sunday afternoon's game to remain in the playoff race, but luckily for them it is at the winless 49ers. For a squad that has been inconsistent so far, this is a wonderful match-up to get them back on track. If they were to lose, not only are their playoff chances minuscule, but they would have lost to one of the weakest teams in the NFL over the past decade or so.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With a 2-3 record and a developing squad some might argue that the Bucs still have time to turn it around even with a defeat in Buffalo this weekend. Realistically however, they are hamstrung by the talent in their own division. With the Saints, Panthers and Falcons all capable teams and above them in the divisional race, it is extremely important for the Bucs not to lose touch. Granted more than one team may make it out of the NFC South, but the margin of error may be too small for a squad that could potentially be 2-4, with no bye week to come.
3) Considering we are now 6 weeks in, who can be seen as a dark-horse contender in each conference?
Jaguars: So the Jags are still very much alive in the AFC South with a very real chance of being able to claim their own division or a wildcard spot. This team has developed a defense that is currently in the top 5 in the NFL and shows no signs of slowing down with the free agent and draft additions gelling nicely. With an emerging running game and an understanding that Blake Bortles needs to be more no more than a game manager, this team has created a blueprint for potential success this year. Think of this squad as almost a replica of the Texans squad that has made it out of the AFC South the previous two seasons. If they found a QB capable of stretching the field, this team could be a future Superbowl contender.
Saints: With a former MVP and a defense that has finally got some talent on it, the Saints seem to be leaving their repetitive 7-9 funks behind them. This team has the true feel of a dark-horse contender, due to their ability to put up points in a hurry, their man under center, their creative and experienced head coach and the fact that they are willing to take chances on defense. Are the Saints good enough to make it out of the NFC South? That is certainly difficult to answer, but if they make it to the playoffs expect them to cause some real problems for whoever they face.
4) Will the Chiefs bounce back after losing their unbeaten streak in week 6 against the Steelers?
So the Chiefs shot at history ended after six weeks of undefeated football. Is their defeat to the Steelers a sign of things to come? The short answer is certainly no, as the NFL is designed to create parity and so their defeat was likely to happen at some point and their dominant start can certainly not be forgotten. What can be said however, is that the Steelers proved the Chiefs, like any team have weaknesses to improve upon. The ease as to which the Steelers controlled possession on Sunday, certainly put Alex Smith & company out of rhythm and is certainly a concern for the Chiefs. As is the injury bug which seems to be affecting rookie running sensation Kareem Hunt, amongst others. Furthermore, the amount of pressure they were able to generate along the offensive line is something that Andy Reid will be looking to fix over the next few weeks. What hasn't changed however, is the defense’s ability to keep the team in any game and Alex Smith's confidence to throw downfield and off the play-action. He is still surrounded by a plethora of weapons and as long as the injury bug doesn't really take hold, this team will still be an incredibly tough out. With a key divisional match-up against the banged up Raiders, this week is a perfect opportunity to show the NFL that the Chiefs are still the team to beat in the AFC.
5) Can the LA Chargers push themselves back into contention after a slow start?
What a difference a couple of weeks makes. After week 4, the Chargers were staring down the barrel of a 0-4 start, having lost a few tight games and not really knowing which direction to go in. The new management regime must be feeling a lot better now with two wins on the bounce, especially considering they come up against a Broncos team that has been inconsistent in a key AFC West match-up. There have been two key improvements for this team over the last few weeks. Firstly, Phillip Rivers has started playing like Phillip Rivers again hitting weapons like Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and co. with some real consistency. Secondly, their front seven which is led by the impressive Joey Bosa has come to the party and they have terrorised opposing lines over the past few weeks. Will this be enough to catch the Chiefs in the AFC West? I'm not sure, but they are certainly showing signs of being able to compete in the AFC playoff race. History doesn't look kindly on teams who start the season 0-4, but the Chargers have made it to the playoffs from that position before (1992), so why not do it again?
6) Is the NFC North now the worst division in the NFL?
Injuries have been key to decimating this division’s hopes of a legitimate Superbowl contender. The injury bug has been especially tough to two teams. As mentioned above, the Packers become an average side without Aaron Rodgers playing, especially considering teams with a lead against them will feel some measure of security in the fact that his replacement isn't capable of making a comeback like there was in Dallas ten days ago. The other is the Vikings who have had the misfortune of two injured starting QB's at one point this season and their new star rookie running back on the medical shelf too. For both teams it is difficult to compete with injuries at such key positions. The other teams in the division are limited by their inconsistency, lack of talent and focus on the future. The Lions could take up the mantle of being a playoff force, but this team has been limited by spotty play and key errors so far this season. The Bears as mentioned last week lack the real talent to compete at the top end this year, whilst no one would blame them if they were looking to build around Mitch Trubisky and Jordan Howard for the future. So is this division currently the worst in the NFL? By record it certainly isn't, but with current talent available to play you can certainly make a case that it could be in a few weeks’ time. It will be interesting to see how this situation evolves before Thanksgiving.
7) How will the Rams and Cardinals fare playing 'across the pond'?
And so we head to England for what could be a vital game in the NFC West divisional race. History (other than the Giants winning the Superbowl in 2007 having played the inaugural Wembley game) has not been kind to teams who play across the pond, especially in the weeks following their trip. It will be intriguing to see whether this will change this time around. Both teams have talented defenses, have had success on offense to a certain degree and have had to deal with some inconsistency in their play so far. This game (especially for the Rams) provides an opportunity for them to kick-start their campaign to grapple the NFC West from both the Cardinals and Seahawks. I'd expect Sunday's game at Twickenham to be a high quality affair, with both teams up for the challenge and both sides ready to return to the NFL with a bye-week coming next week. I think energy and youth may prove to be what gives the Rams a victory, but I expect this game will be of a much higher quality than the games seen in London so far this year.
8) Should the Colts be looking to 2018 given the state of Andrew Luck's shoulder?
So with news coming in the last 24 hours that the Colts have again stopped Andrew Luck from practicing, is it time for the team to look to adding more talent around him for 2018? This is an extremely tough question to answer, especially considering Chuck Pagano's job status was probably somewhat contingent on playoff football this year. Outside of this issue though, this is not a particularly tough question to answer. The Colts if they lose this weekend, should definitely focus on 2018 and shut Luck down for the season. Their issues over the past few seasons are largely due to a lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball and the offensive line. This can be fixed in part by trading away some veterans and focus on collecting draft capital. If Luck does return to full form and fitness next season he can keep them in every game with his arm, so why not focus on a plan that will enable them to take the pressure of him both literally and figuratively? It will be interesting to see what the focus of Chris Ballard and his management team are over the next few weeks.
9) How should the two winless clubs be feeling so far this season?
Cleveland Browns: I think if you were to ask the Browns management and coaching team whether they were happy with the current situation you would get more of a mixed answer than the 49ers would give. Certainly they are still very much focused on the future and accumulating the draft capital that is required to build a legitimate playoff contender, but their competitiveness on the field is somewhat concerning. Given they are in year two of their rebuild you would expect this squad to be competing in closer games than they currently are. Granted they have a rookie QB and a general lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball but some of their issues are of their own making. A perfect example of this was losing home-grown talent such as Terrelle Pryor and Alex Mack over the last few seasons. We may be saying this all helped them out in the future, but this Browns regime certainly has some interesting question to answer at the moment.
San Francisco 49ers: This situation is certainly not the end of the world for the 49ers especially given the knowledge that Kyle Shanahan and John Elway both have long term contracts signed. This season was all about understanding what talent they already had, collecting draft capital and setting up for the future. They will clearly need a QB at some point, an upgrade in talent on the offensive side of the ball and more pass rush from their front seven. It certainly looks like the youth in this squad have bought into the future of the 49ers, clearly the losing isn't fun for the fans but even they know that this is the quickest way for the their team to improve. The only question mark here is understanding where the (notoriously short) limit of Jed York's (owner) patience is?
10) What will happen in the Superbowl rematch?
Both squads have showed the effects of a Superbowl hangover so far this year, although its seems to be new additions that are affecting both squads more. The Patriots on the defensive side of the ball still seem to be working things out and the Falcons have been incredibly inconsistent in their new home. Given what has been said this should be a cracking match-up between two offensive juggernauts, with the defensive effort likely to be vital for whomever wins this game. At Gillette Stadium it is incredibly tough to bet against the Patriots (so I won't), but don't be surprised if the the prize of revenge leads the Falcons to dispel some of the ghosts of February.
11) Why have NFL owners changed their tune regarding the kneeling for the National Anthem?
Over the last year or so this debate has been a hot topic on the NFL and US national stage. Ever since Colin Kaepernick took a knee to voice his displeasure about how ethnic minorities were treated, his decision to take a knee has largely been treated with respect by owners and other players alike. Certainly his message seems to have got slightly blurred over the past year, especially in relation to the current president and his actions. Why have the owners suddenly decided that the kneeling needs to end/stop? There is a very simple reason for this and it has nothing to do with NFL politics or Donald Trump directly. Viewing numbers are significantly down this year in comparison to the recent past and the kneeling has been listed as a potential reason for it. Middle America (who largely supported Trump) clearly don't like this phenomenon and this has affected viewership in one of the NFL heartlands. How this sorts itself out, one can only guess. What I will say is it is important for Kaepernick's message to not get lost in the political bluster that can be seen in today's world.
Players of the week:
Offensive player of the week: Jordan Howard (Bears, RB) - What a week for the second year man. In a tough game, away from home and against a good defense, Howard had 167 yards from 36 touches and kept the Bears in the game for their win in overtime. Howard is going to be vital if the Bears and Mitch Trubisky intend to be competitive this year.
Defensive players of the week:
Adrian Amos (Bears, Safety) - For a team that is lacking in overall talent, it is interesting to see two Bears players perform so well. Amos was everywhere in the secondary on Saturday making big hits and pressuring the Ravens offense into making mistakes. His signature play was a 90 yard interception return touchdown that proved vital in the Bears upset of the Ravens.
Vince Williams (Steelers, Nose Tackle) - Another big day for the Steelers defense in their win over the Chiefs. What a performance from the lightly heralded veteran who had two massive sacks of Alex Smith during the first half. He provided constant pressure on the Kansas City offensive line and proved there is a weakness to exploit for teams looking to beat the Chiefs.
Score Prediction:
Last week's record: 8-6
Overall winning percentage since week 1: 58%
KC@OAK: 28-21; Key match-up on AFC West. Derek Carr is apparently fully healthy this week, while the Chiefs were somewhat exposed at the hands of the Steelers last week. This game will be a lot closer than their records suggest, but I believe the Chiefs have too much talent for the Raiders defense to handle in this game.
TB@BUF: 21-27; An interesting match-up between two hard to read teams. Tampa Bay have clearly underperformed their preseason expectations so far, while the opposite could potentially be said of the Bills. At home, with an improved defense and strong running game, I expect the Bills to have the edge over the Bucs.
CAR@CHI: 24-27; A much more competitive game than some might have expected at the start of the season. Last week proved that Chicago's ground and pound running is extremely potent, especially if they have somewhat of a threat in the play-action passing game. Carolina could run away with this one, but I'm going to back the home team in this one especially if they can control the clock.
TEN@CLE: 30-17; Key victory for the Titans last week. With Marcus Mariota fit again and a defense pressuring opposition QB's, I'd expect them to be too much for the winless Browns to handle.
NO@GB: 30-14; What a difference a week makes. With Aaron Rodgers under center the Packers were always a tough out, without him they are very beatable. This is now an incredibly tough match-up for them, with Drew Brees having too much talent for the Packers to truly compete in this game.
JAX@IND: 21-10; With the Andrew Luck injury still looming over the Colts, this is a must win game for Doug Marrone and the Jags. With a suffocating defense and decent rushing attack, I expect the Jags will win this one despite their issues at QB.
ARI@LAR: 21-24; Vital game for the new look LA Rams as it is an opportunity to take a two game cushion over a division rival. This game could easily go either way but I am giving the edge to Jared Goff and the well balanced Rams offense.
NYJ@MIA: 17-23; A big finish down the stretch last week saved the Dolphins position in the AFC East. Another key divisional match-up this week, but I expect the Dolphins will win giving the difference in talent between the two sides and their need for revenge given their surprise loss against the Jets in week 3.
BAL@MIN: 21-17; Incredibly difficult match-up to figure out, especially given the inconsistency of the Ravens so far this year. With Minnesota struggling on the injury front (Dalvin Cook out for the year, Bradford fragile at best), I'd expect the Ravens to take advantage of the good field position they are given.
DAL@SF: 28-17; A must win game for the Cowboys. Here is another squad that has been incredibly inconsistent so far this year. The good fortune is they are playing a team in the 49ers who are fully focused on next year. With Ezekiel Elliott available for at least the next two weeks, expect the abundance of talent on the Cowboys squad to be too much for the 49ers.
CIN@PIT: 21-30; Interesting how a week can really change ones perspective. After an incredibly dominating performance against the Chiefs, it will be interesting to see whether they can keep the momentum going. This certainly isn't the same Bengals squad that started the season against the Steelers, but I still think Pittsburgh has too much talent for the Bengals to keep them at bay.
DEN@LAC: 21-27; Another important divisional match-up for both squads. With the Chargers coming off back to back wins, and the Broncos faltering at home to the Giants, I am going to back the home team who have too much talent to start the season the way they did. It certainly could go either way, but Trevor Siemien & company have not shown me enough yet to convince me that they can take a game by the scruff of the neck.
SEA@NYG: 24-17; Finally the Giants received their first win, beating a good Broncos team away from home. Now they face a good Seahwaks squad coming off their bye week. With injuries healed and players rested, I'd expect the Seattle defense especially, to be too much for the Giants to compete with.
ATL@NE: 28-34; Incredibly tough match-up for the Falcons coming off two straight losses. This should be a close one given their ability to score, but a loss in Foxborough against the defending champs is the more likely result, given the play of both teams so far.
WAS@PHI: 24-34; Key NFC East match-up to end the week. Both teams have showed flashes of talent so far this season, although the Redskins have already lost once to the Eagles. I don't see any reason why it will change this week especially given the multi-faceted offense that Doug Pederson has designed for the Eagles so far this year.
