Week 9: The trade deadline stirs up a storm

Good afternoon and welcome to another week of 'An Englishman's Thoughts from Across the Pond'. The action in the past week has very much occurred both on and off the field with Monday's trade deadline providing more excitement than ever before. A potential franchise QB was traded to the 49ers, the Eagles got a little stronger from a position of weakness, the Bills traded for a potential franchise receiver and the Seahawks finally realised Russel Wilson needed some protection up front. Other points of interest include Brock Osweiler starting for the team he left two years ago, an absolute classic served up by the Texans and Seahawks, the impending suspension of Zeke Elliott and an Eagles squad that is looking unbeatable right now. Without further ado, let's dive into this week’s discussion points:



1) How will the Jimmy Garopollo trade work out for both parties involved?


What a way to start week 9, the trade deadline usually disappoints for all involved but this year we had one for the ages. It was led by the 49ers picking up Tom Brady's heir apparent Jimmy Garopollo for next year's second round pick. The surprise here is twofold, one that the Patriots traded Tom Brady's insurance for only a second round pick (albeit a high one) and secondly that it was the 49ers who made the call and not the Browns. I actually believe this is a trade that will work out great for both parties. For the Patriots they heavily upgrade on the third round draft choice they used to pick Garopollo with, they have freed up potential future cap space to keep their championship window alive, they have another high pick in a loaded draft and it gives more time to perhaps the greatest QB to ever play football. The only question marks that surround this trade is could they have got more value and what happens if Tom Brady gets injured? The first is easy to answer as the Patriots were clearly waiting for Garopollo to state his intention for next year and the second if we are being honest is the Patriots are screwed if Tom Brady is not at QB. For the 49ers this trade is even more of a no brainer. In a lost season where the team is looking to rebuild, find and draft new talent, giving up a second round pick for a potential franchise QB (especially in Shanahan's system) gives the 49ers the ability to accumulate talent at other positions, see how Garopollo fits in their system and provides him a stress free trial where winning is not the key focus of their season. It will be extremely interesting to see how this trade grades in a few years’ time.


2) Can anyone slow down Carson Wentz and the Eagles?


Over the last few weeks the Eagles have proven time and time again that they are ready for any challenge that they have been set, especially within their division. Carson Wentz seems to be going from strength to strength and his comfort within Doug Pederson's offense is one of the team's key strengths right now. With Jay Ajayi added to the offensive formula it is now reasonable to argue that the Eagles have made their offense even more multi-dimensional and in turn unstoppable. With his strengths out of the backfield in the passing game and his ability to pass block, the Eagles should be able to adapt their offense to each opponent they face, whilst remaining particularly efficient in the red zone through LeGarrette Blount and Zach Ertz. If I was an opposing coordinator right now, I'd be looking to try and test Wentz's understanding of passing concepts. Pressure has worked very poorly so far against him, especially on third down (where they are extremely efficient), so disguising the coverage, mixing up blitz packages and limiting his big plays are likely to be the best way to slow him and the Eagles down. Ultimately they are already in a fantastic position within their division, so opponents must start devising schemes that will slow them down in the playoffs. It is still relatively early in the season but this roster looks confident around its burgeoning QB, it is young & athletic and its defense finally has the ability to slow down veteran Quarterbacks. It will be interesting to see if any opponents can figure out how to push them off balance, with the upcoming tilt against Broncos defense perhaps providing a glimpse of how to do this, especially with the talent they have accumulated in on that side of the ball.


3) The Texans and Seahawks served up a classic. How good is DeShaun Watson's start?


Just take a moment to enjoy one of the best shootouts of the season. Both Quarterbacks played supremely well, both generating over 400 yards of offense, with lockdown Seattle Conner Richard Sherman claiming Watson was the best opponent quarterback he has faced in the last three years (high praise indeed for a rookie). Clearly DeShaun Watson's start has been historic and now the rookie QB has taken apart one of the best defenses in all of football over the past five years or so. 402 yards passing and 4 touchdowns in one of the toughest places to play is no mean feat and suggests that this rookie QB is the real deal. He has averaged 243 yards passing per game, he is extremely mobile, has thrown 19 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, and currently has a passer rating of 103. The only thing missing from his first seven weeks remains a few statement wins which are certainly likely to come with the Texans upcoming schedule. What his success has really proven to most people, is college production especially at the level he played should be given equal consideration in the draft process. It has given him the confidence and mentality to succeed in the NFL so far and has turned his team into a legitimate playoff hopeful. It will be extremely interesting to see how this progresses now that the Texans have gone through the toughest stretch of their schedule.


4) Is this the year the Jags finally become a legitimate playoff contender?


A simple question that many analysts have been asking so far this year. Finally GM Dave Caldwell's draft and free agent decisions (especially on defense) seem to be gelling to create one of the single most dominant defenses in football. With the AFC South very much up for grabs can the Jags continue to keep pace with the rest of the AFC? Their defense certainly provides a wonderful platform for them to do just that but I foresee two issues before they can legitimately be considered a playoff contender. The first is their two divisional opponents the Texans and Titans. Both rosters are also improving and should ramp up the pressure especially in match-ups between both squads. Second is their offense, I am still unconvinced that Blake Bortles 'managing' the game is enough to get them past better opponents. Much like the Broncos struggles of the last few years, if you don't have a legitimate franchise QB talent your margin for error is that much smaller. I certainly believe that Jags are much closer to their AFC rivals and playoff contenders, but I am so far unconvinced that they are a legitimate playoff contender.


5) With their trade for Duane Brown, have the Seahawks finally admitted a change in philosophy for their team?


Another trade orchestrated on Monday was the trade of Duane Brown of the Texans for Jeremy Lane, a third and a fifth round pick. That is quite a steep price for one of the better tackles in football especially considering that Jeremy Lane started opposite Richard Sherman in the Seattle defense. What is clearly apparent is GM John Schneider and Coach Pete Carrol have realised that protecting Russel Wilson better is vital to their success this year and beyond. I have mentioned more than once that the issues on the offensive line limit the Seahawks and while Brown is not a long term fix, he is certainly an upgrade what is currently there. Watching Sunday afternoon’s shootout with the Texans proved how times have changed for all teams in the NFL. Two dominant defenses were pulled apart by lightning fast, play action, quick strike offenses. The Seahawks have by no means given up on their defense, they are now just clearly acknowledging that their offense may be the thing that takes them back to the Superbowl.


6) Winners/Losers of the trade deadline


Winner: 49ers/Jimmy Garopollo - What a great way for the former Patriots QB to start his career outside of New England. He has zero pressure to win this year, a head coach who is known to bring the best out of all the QB's he has coached and he isn't playing in Cleveland. It will be interesting to see whether this is discussed as the turning point for the dormant 49ers franchise.


Winner: Jay Ajayi - Getting traded from the Dolphins, to a Superbowl contending Eagles roster is a win in anyone's book. What should make it even better for Ajayi is that he should have some room to run and contribute to one of the best offenses in football.


Loser: Cleveland Browns - Well if you were following the Jimmy Garopollo sweepstakes Hue Jackson would already consider himself a loser. How the Browns failed to pick up an available and young talented QB is certainly beyond me. What is perhaps more disappointing is that they failed to trade any veterans away for further draft capital. For me it is an extremely weak trade deadline from what is said to be an analytical and astute front office.


Loser: Cam Newton - Losing one of his best wide receivers to the Bills must have been difficult for the former MVP. Even worse is he is known to be one of Newton's best mates on the roster. With the Panthers offense struggling to find momentum, losing one of his key weapons must be a hard pill to swallow.


7) Can the Bills continue their hot start and challenge the Patriots for AFC East Supremacy?


As of today the Bills are only one win behind the Patriots in the AFC East, they have finally managed to produce the defense that Rex Ryan claimed they could have and have an offense that is capable of controlling the clock and forcing their opposition to chase the game. Actually challenging the Patriots though is an entirely different problem and there are a few things the Bills need to do to prove they are for real. First of and most obviously for this season is not to lose the season series to the Patriots. Second is they need to develop more of a quick strike capability (i.e. an offense that can take over/change a game), this could be aided by the addition of Kelvin Benjamin. Finally they need to give the new regime a chance to bed in. It is all well and good having a great start and challenging this year, the trick will be allowing for continuity when things don't necessarily go to plan. With such questions as Tyrod Taylor's future coming up again this off-season, it will be interesting to watch it all unfold. The Bills certainly look likely to be in a position to continually challenge in the division, it is just important that they approach it in the right way.


8) What a year for Brock Osweiler. How will he fare in his return to the Broncos Starting Line-up?


So after another disappointing performance from Trevor Siemian at the weekend (with some especially ugly interceptions), new Broncos head coach Vance Joseph has decided to start former Broncos QB Brock Osweiler ushering in an extremely interesting set of events in Denver. For Brock, this is a homecoming of sorts after having bolted for Houston, been dumped to the Browns and then finding his way back to Denver early this season. How will he fare? Well the offense in principle hasn't changed too much since he left with the vertical play-action system still a staple of their offensive philosophy. Even some of the key receiving weapons are there, so the familiarity should be better for him than most back-up QB's. What hasn't changed for him though is their offensive line is still struggling massively, their running game has failed to really establish itself so far and Osweiler is not the same confident 'happy go lucky' QB that first played in Denver alongside Peyton Manning. I'd expect him to struggle, especially against an Eagles defense that is opportunistic and well placed to take advantage of mistakes. A further question to ask oneself here is what has happened to Paxton Lynch and will this lead to a Broncos QB crisis? (One could argue this hasn't really been solved since Manning retired). This is certainly not the last time one will hear about their QB situation this year.


9) How will the Cowboys fare without Ezekiel Elliott with his suspension due to start?


Having managed to delay his suspension until now, Zeke Elliott looks like he will have to start his suspension after all, in a vital part of the Cowboys season. This leads to two interesting questions, can the Cowboys compete without him? And what will running back production be like sans Elliott? I'm going to answer the second question first. The Cowboys have an eclectic mix of veterans and youngsters on their roster with a rotation of backs seeming likely over the next few weeks. On their roster is veteran speedster Darren McFadden, former Redskins standout Alfred Morris and youngster Rod Smith. All will get their chance with my belief that Smith may get more of the carries. Unfortunately even their combined talent is nothing like Elliott's as they are unable to replicate his downhill and physical running style. This means I'd expect production to drop off and that is a huge issue for the Cowboys. Dak Prescott is somewhat reliant on the Cowboys running game to set up his play action passing game, with Elliott's ability to gain the hard yards vital to moving the chains for the offense. I'd expect the Cowboys to find life difficult without one half of their superstar tandem leaving much more reliance on Dak Prescott's arm. Ultimately this is all hypothetical at the moment, but with the Chiefs coming to town this weekend this game could set a barometer for how they are likely to fare over the next six weeks.


10) Is there any hope if you are a Browns fan?


So fortunately the London game didn't result in another doughnut for either team, but it did still leave the Browns win-less through half a season and for many its fuels the legitimate question of whether this team is any better than the previous re-incarnations of the squad over the last 10 years or so? Life as a Cleveland Browns fan is largely all about hope seeing as their only recent playoff appearance was inspired by a long gone coach and a quarterback in Derek Anderson who is now backing up Cam Newton in Carolina. What is undeniable is the losing will provide an opportunity to collect more draft capital, pick a top quarterback in the upcoming draft (vital to any team's success) and should enable them to infuse talent throughout the roster. It is certainly clear that they have some talented youngsters (especially on the defensive side of the ball), injuries have taken their toll on some of their better players (Joe Thomas and Corey Coleman) and they have plenty of cap space to play with in the future. So yes there is hope if you are a Browns fan, but for this new regime to have success, the losing will have to continue, the regime will need to be given a chance to clear all that ails the Browns and the finished product is likely still at least three years away. Think of the next period in Browns history as the Philadelphia 76ers 'process' 2.0. It will certainly have to be that way if they finally want to rid themselves of being the AFC’s doormat.


Players of the Week:


Offensive Player of the Week: LeSean McCoy (RB, Bills) - Kudos to both DeShaun Watson and Russel Wilson who both put on an absolute passing clinic in Seattle, but McCoy's under the radar display against the Raiders kept the Bills in the thick of the playoff race. He ran for 156 yards (5.6 yards per carry, 1 touchdown) including 120 yards in the second half of the game. What a way to demoralise your opposition, eat the clock and put your team on your shoulders.


Defensive Player of the Week: Earl Thomas (Safety, Seahawks) - Strange to focus on a defender in what was an offensive shootout. However, Thomas who is one of the best Free Safety's in the league proved why defenses still win championships. Having watched his team get torched early by a Will Fuller touchdown, on the next possession, Thomas caught Watson eyeing his receiver, jumped the route and took it for a 78 yard touchdown. A fantastic play from the Seattle Safety and one that gave the Seahawks a leg up on the Texans for the rest of what was a thrilling game.


Score Predictions:


Last week's record: 10-3


Overall record since Week 1: 65%


BUF@NYJ: 28-20; The Jets have been better than advertised so far this season but the new-look Bills should have too much talent to overpower them. With the addition of Kelvin Benjamin and a defense that is going from strength to strength, expect them to keep the pressure up on the Patriots in the AFC East.


ATL@CAR: 28-24; Incredibly important NFC South Match-up. With both teams struggling with inconsistency on the offensive side of the ball in particular, this game should be extremely close. I'm going to back the team which has more talent and currently that is the Falcons.


IND@HOU: 13-34; Without Andrew Luck and with a squad lacking in top class talent, the Colts are likely to struggle big time against the Texans. After a historic performance last week, DeShaun Watson and the Texans will be looking to start a winning streak and take back the division lead from the Jags.


CIN@JAX: 21-27; Extremely tough game to call and a massive game for the Jaguars, especially with the Texans breathing down their neck. With their defense playing at an incredibly high level and their offense capable of controlling the ball, I am going to give them the edge in this game. Further helping my decision are the Bengals turnover and continuing disciplinary issues.


TB@NO: 20-31; Tough to bet against a resurgent Saints team at home. With Drew Brees looking like a younger version of himself, the defense finally looking capable of slowing down teams to a point and Tampa Bay’s inability to consistently perform for 60 minutes, I am going to back the home team in this one.


LAR@NYG: 31-20; Strange to have watched Eli Manning struggle so much over the last season and a half. Ultimately with a porous offensive line and a receiving corps lacking Odell Beckham Jr, I doubt the Giants have the firepower to keep up with the up and coming Rams.


DEN@PHI: 20-34; Welcome back to the NFL Brock Osweiler and what a game to try and restart your career in. Unfortunately for the Broncos this was an incredibly tough game no matter who you have under center. Expect the Eagles to prove why they are the class of the NFC for another week.


BAL@TEN: 21-24; Which Ravens squad will turn up this week? This is an incredibly difficult game to call and an important match-up for both rosters on the outskirts of the AFC Playoff Picture. I am going to give the edge to the home squad in this one, but don't be surprised if the Ravens (provided there are no injury issues) play well again proving last Thursday was indeed no fluke.


ARI@SF: 15-10; This game should be much closer than one expects. With no Carson Palmer on the Arizona side, and injuries & an unknown starting QB for the 49ers this has the makings of a potential upset. However with Garopollo unlikely to start this week and no offensive line to protect rookie CJ Beathard, I'd expect the Drew Stanton led Cardinals to just keep the 49ers winless.


WAS@SEA: 20-31; It has been tough sledding for the Redskins over the past few weeks, with this match-up not making life any easier whatsoever. With better protection along the offensive line and a defense that is much better than last week suggests, expect the Seahawks to pile more misery on Jay Gruden and company.


KC@DAL: 31-17; Finally on Monday night the Chiefs showed again what they are capable of. With a Dallas squad weakened by Elliott's suspension, I'd expect the Chiefs offense to take this game out of reach for Prescott and the Cowboys.


OAK@MIA: 28-17; Interesting match-up between two squads that have disappointing so far. I'm going to back the Raiders, largely due to Miami's QB situation and trade of their franchise running back Jay Ajayi.


DET@GB: 21-24; Going against consensus with this prediction here. With Green Bay coming off their bye week and the Lions coming off a disappointing loss to the Steelers, I would expect the Packers defense to be prepared to slow down Matthew Stafford and Brett Hundley to be more successful at moving the chains after a week of working out how to adapt the Green Bay offense to his playing style. However, if the Lions produce a more consistent performance this week, don't be surprised to see them edge this one.