Wildcard Weekend: Truly where all the fun begins...
So week 17 left a few surprises for NFL fans to digest with many wondering what will happen next for their squads. The Falcons, Bills and Titans managed to work their way in while the Ravens and Seahawks fans will be particularly disappointed given the position they were in entering the final week. With plenty of other news filling NFL headlines this week let’s look the key themes of the week...
1) With plenty of firings on Black Monday, which was the most surprising?
For many the Raiders firing would raise some alarm bells considering the job Jack Del Rio did last season or potentially Jim Caldwell's firing in Detroit, but for me it is the firing of John Fox. Yes the Chicago Bears had another poor season and yes it was tough to find too much improvement on the year before, but it is hard to fault the guy given the dearth of talent he had to play with. The Bears have perennially been hanging on for too long, with this year finally showing they need to continue hard on the path to rebuild and a calm presence like Fox would have been vital. With the merry-go-round that the Bears seem to be creating for themselves, no wonder they are struggling to get off the floor in the NFC North. There are certainly some bright spots for Bears fans but a search for another new coach is starting to make them sound like the Cleveland of the NFC.
2) The Bills have finally made the Playoffs
The perennial joke of the NFL is no longer a joke. After 17 years of waiting the Bills are finally going to the playoffs and what a ride it must have been. Even when they impressively put away the Dolphins they still had plenty of time to wait as the Ravens were still holding on to a lead against the Bengals. What then ensued must have made a Bills lifer like 11 year DT Kevin Williams hold his heart in his mouth. After so many near misses, the Bills have finally made it back with a huge debt of gratitude owed to the Andy Dalton. Sean McDermott has certainly managed to achieve what Rex Ryan could not and although there are some holes in their roster, their defense and rushing attack on its day is likely to cause some problems.
3) State of the Franchise: Baltimore Ravens
So the Ravens fell at the final hurdle which is likely to be very disappointing for John Harbaugh and company. With a slow start to the season the Ravens found themselves with plenty of catching up to do and although destiny was in their own hands, their trademark defense was the thing that let them down. Looking ahead for this Ravens franchise there are however plenty of positives to focus. Continuity through the team has never been more obvious, they still have Joe Flacco under center and although the defense gave in at the last, it is starting to look like to unit that had tormented offenses for the best part of the last decade. Ozzie Newsome has done a fantastic job of retooling the defense, with his focus this year likely resting on the offensive line and additional weapons for Joe Flacco. It will certainly be disappointing to have missed the playoffs, but the Ravens should be right in the thick of it next season.
4) State of the Franchise: Seattle Seahawks
As has been discussed a few times before this year, this season is likely to signal a true shifting of the guard for the Seahawks. Failing to make the playoffs will be a huge disappointment for this franchise considering the talent they had that wasn't on IR, but it is perhaps important for them to have this feeling so they can retool for the future. Russell Wilson is obviously the future of this team and with their legion of boom veterans all near to the end of their contracts it will be interesting to see what GM John Schneider decides to do. There are plenty of positives for this Seahawks teams especially on offense, but look for the team to infuse some youth into its roster at the expense of some of their veterans. I believe the future is still bright for the Seahawks but it may take one more season before we see them at their best. They also need to fix their offensive line if they intend to be a Superbowl contender in the near future!
5) The MVP race is going to be close
Finally, a few thoughts on the annual Tom Brady parade. Although he has performed to an extremely high level and his team has dominated the NFL as per usual, I think the MVP race is likely to be closer than one things. There are two candidates that can realistically unseat the New England QB, Todd Gurley and Carson Wentz. Both have dragged their team’s right into the thick of playoff action and both have performed at an exceedingly high level. If Gurley didn't have to compete with the attentions of Jared Goff and Wentz hadn't got injured, they may even of been the front runners. However, given those limitations it will be interesting to see whether any of them get close to Tom Brady when the vote happens.
Players of the week:
Offensive Player of the week: Frank Gore (RB, Colts) - What a career it has been for the ex 49-er. In what could be his last game as a professional he ran for 100 yards on 24 carries, and ended his career as it began. He has just passed the 14,000 rushing yard total and is currently the fifth leading rusher of all time. Last Sunday proved his value and it will be a shame to see him leave if indeed he decides to do so.
Defensive Player of the week: Jaylen Smith (LB, Cowboys) - For a player who had plenty of question marks heading into the 2016 draft due to his injury in the Fiesta Bowl, Smith has finally begun to prove that he belongs in the NFL. In the Cowboys 6-0 shutout of the Eagles he was instrumental stuffing plenty of series and having two tackles for a loss that led to punts. Look for this second year man to be even stronger next year.
Score Predictions:
Record last week: 9-7
Overall record since week 1: 67%
Wild card weekend predictions:
TEN@KC
Key to victory for Titans - Their ability to take the chances they are given will be vital for the team from Tennessee. With one of the Chiefs biggest strengths being able to control the clock with their running game, Marcus Mariota and company will need to be ready to take the opportunities they are given.
Key to victory for Chiefs - Keeping their offense balanced will be vital for the Chiefs in this game. During their mid-season slump the Chiefs for one reason or another relied too much on the arm of Alex Smith. What has been made clear since then is Kareem Hunt is vital to setting up everything they do on offense, which then enables the oft-criticised Smith to break apart an opponent’s defense systematically.
Score Prediction: 20-30; Tough to see the Chiefs losing this one at home. Andy Reid & company have plenty of playoff demons to exorcise, so it is tough to see them letting their foot of the gas for this one. Tennessee certainly has a chance in this one, but for them to win the defense will need some stops and Marcus Mariota will need to step up.
ATL@LAR
Key to victory for Falcons - The key for the Falcons is obvious and that is protecting the ball and moving the chains on offense. Matt Ryan & company will be disappointed with their output this season, especially given little has changed personnel wise for the league leading 2016 offense. Luckily they can put that all behind them and should the offense come to life, they will be a tough out for any team in the playoffs.
Key to victory for Rams - Generating pressure on defense will be key for the Rams in this game. Their defense has performed well this season particularly generating pressure on opposing QB's. With the Falcons offensive line perhaps the weakest part of their roster, L.A. will need to generate pressure in order to slow down a potent Falcons offense.
Score Prediction: 31-27; The Rams and L.A. have finally returned to playoff football and it should be intriguing to watch how they get on as the new darlings of the L.A. spotlight. Both teams sport potentially potent offenses, with the ability to force turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. This is an incredibly tough one to call so I am going to back the playoff tested team and give the edge to the Falcons.
BUF@JAX
Key to victory for Bills - Controlling the time of possession in the game is crucial for the Bills in this one. That is because it will mean two things for the game. Firstly they will be rushing the ball efficiently and likely giving themselves opportunities to score, secondly they will be tiring out a Jags defense that has been by far and away the best in the league. With the Jags winning most of their games on the back of their defense, controlling possession should signal the Bills will have a chance.
Key to victory for Jags - Taking care of the football. Blake Bortles has looked much improved over the second half of the season but it is not difficult to realise why the Jags are back in the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Considering the great field position he is given and realising they don't need to put up points in a hurry to win, the Jags first priority will be to secure the football and win this game like the Bears team’s of old.
Score Prediction: 13-17; This should be an extremely tight affair between two teams who enjoy grinding out victories. With two defenses that are a strength in their own right, the offenses are likely to determine who wins this game. Two months ago my answer certainly would have been different, but the way the Jags methodically move the ball down the field through Bortles and Fournette should provide the edge Jacksonville needs in this one.
CAR@NO
Key to victory for Panthers - Consistently moving the ball on offense. The Panthers have certainly looked very good at times this season but too often (like last week) their offense has let them down in games. With the playoffs having arrived and them playing perhaps the best offense in the NFL, the Panthers will need to consistently perform to keep pace with them. Do that and NFL fans could be in for a real shootout between two of the league’s most diverse offenses on Sunday night.
Key to victory for Saints - Providing a balance too their offense. We all know the Saints improvement on the defensive side of the ball is perhaps the reason they won the NFC South, but in this match-up their diverse offense is likely to be the key. We all know what Drew Brees is capable of and with Ingram and Kamara keeping defenses honest, the Saints will be incredibly difficult to slow down.
Score Prediction: 20-24; Another fantastic match-up with two division rivals squaring off against each other in what should be a hotly contested game. Offense is likely to determine the outcome of this one, and at the Superdome it is hard to see the Panthers being able to stop Drew Brees and company.
