Year 2, Week 1: It all starts again, a taster and previews of all this weeks games...
Hello and welcome to another year of ‘An Englishman’s thoughts from across the pond’. With another season about to kick off, I thought it was about time to update everyone on the key stories from the NFL summer and preseason, and put out my first game predictions of the season. Without further ado let’s dive right in…
1) Will the Eagles repeat? When will Carson Wentz be ready for action?
This is always the question season after season. Can teams continue their momentum and solidify their ranking atop the NFL world. It is extremely hard to do, the Patriots are the last team to be back to back champions (2001/02) and although they have largely been dominant, even they have proved it is hard to continually be at the top of the pack. The Eagles however are certainly well placed to remain in the hunt. They have a defense that is young, fast and hungry for the ball. They have a decent amount of depth on their depth chart (especially defensive front seven and at QB) and they have a first string QB who is amongst the brightest young talents in the game. His health will be key to their continual dominance and so quite rightly he hasn’t been cleared for action just yet. When he is, that is when we will all know how prepared the Eagles are to repeat. My guess is they are not far away and with an offense that is led by the mastermind that is Doug Pederson expect the Eagles to keep their opponents guessing all season long.
2) Is this finally the year that everything falls apart for Brady, Belichick and the Patriots?
Plenty of media analysts have been predicting the Patriots doom for a while now but there has still be no sign of this through their performance over the past few seasons. With their likely coaching succession plan now in place (Josh McDaniels signing and then backing out from Indy) there may be even more stability in the Patriots locker room. Ultimately the Patriots go as Brady and Belichick go and so until they show a drastic decline in their abilities, I’d expect them to at least dominate the AFC East for another year. There are certainly a few question marks to consider, most obviously who will catch balls from Tom Brady and can the offensive line keep him upright for 16+ games, but until proven otherwise the Patriots are likely to be one of the best teams in the NFL.
3) Which team with a new QB under center is likely to show the biggest turnaround this year?
Minnesota and Washington definitely deserve a mention here as do some of the teams that drafted young rookie QB’s in the offseason (Jets, Cardinals, Browns…) but I believe the biggest game-changer here will be Case Keenum’s addition to the Broncos roster. Since Peyton Manning retired, John Elway has essentially been looking to find a replacement for ‘himself’ and that has proven difficult. With first round pick Paxton Lynch jettisoned and Brock Osweiler gone again, the ball falls to Keenum to keep the Broncos alive. Yes the Vikings may get the better record, but I think Keenum has the ability to lift the ceiling of his team the most. Much like his time in Minnesota, he has a plethora of weapons to throw too, a decent offensive line and defense that still has one of the most dangerous pass rushing tandems in the league. I think Elway is liking his choice right now and expect Denver to compete for a wildcard spot this year, right where they belong.
4) Will the Browns finally show some signs of life in year 3 under Hue Jackson’s tutelage?
It certainly has been painful if you have been a Browns fan over the last decade or so, but finally I believe those days may be beginning to come to an end. With a veteran QB under center, some young draft talent coming in and some sensible free agent additions, I would expect the Browns to be more competitive this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I would anticipate closer games, growing expectations and potentially some more talent coming in via trade with their draft capital. New GM John Dorsey has not shied away from the challenge and all indications suggest he intends to put a competitive product on the field.
5) How will the Steelers and their defense cope without all-pro line-backer Ryan Shazier?
Ryan Shazier’s injury was one of the saddest and most uplifting stories of the NFL offseason. Although he is clearly limited still, his resilience, determination and positivity has been a credit to him, the Steelers organisation and how one should hope to try and recover from such a horrific injury. The obvious downside to this situation is the Steelers are without their defensive leader and key line-backer who sets the tone. Who will take his place this season? Can they find a way to shore up the defense that let them down at the end of last season? It is extremely tough for them to find a like for like replacement for Shazier, but with the personnel they have it will be interesting to see how they adapt their defensive concepts to deal with his loss and the changing of the guard.
6) Can the Falcons defense elevate itself to the level of the legion of boom in year 4 of Dan Quinn’s tenure?
We all know the Atlanta offense has been a juggernaut for years now and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian only has more weapons to throw to after the addition of Calvin Ridley in the draft. What is likely to elevate this Falcons roster is their defense. At all three levels they have stars in the making (Grady Jarret, Vic Beasley, De’Vondre Campbell, Deion Jones, Desmond Trufant & Robert Alford), what they now need to do is all work in tandem. Dan Quinn’s defense has the speed, intelligence and power to cover the field in his hybrid zone blitz concepts and their progress will be key to whether the Falcons can go deep into the playoffs. This may be the year that the Falcons defense emulates the Seahawks of four or five seasons ago.
7) Who is the biggest surprise challenger in the AFC?
Notwithstanding the Broncos that I have already spoke about above, I believe the biggest surprise team will be the Colts. There are two reasons as to why I make this prediction. The first is that Andrew Luck is healthy and he can keep you in any game. The second is much more important to their season and their longevity, they simply have much more talent on the roster than they did at this time last year. Yes a lot of this is due to Luck’s injury and essentially their tanking, but this has enabled GM Chris Ballard to fortify the offensive and defensive lines, bring in additional depth and really provide a chance for the Colts to compete. With offensive mastermind Frank Reich now in charge, expect their offense to keep them in games this year.
8) Who is the biggest surprise challenger in the NFC?
My dark horse in the NFC comes from another disciple of the Eagles success last year. The Chicago Bears have finally built a roster that may have an outside chance to compete. With solid drafting, sensible free agent additions, innovative trading (hello Khalil Mack), expect the Bears to cause a problem for a few teams this year. Expecting a playoff run may be too much but Mitch Trubisky proved last year that he had the talent to succeed, now he has the offense and burgeoning talent around him to show some much needed progress. It will be interesting to watch the Bears development this season.
9) Which team will flatter to deceive this season after a lot of preseason hype?
Maybe it the fact that they are ‘America’s team’ and they get a lot of media attention but to me the Cowboys hype is overblown for the talent they have on the roster. Yes they have a good offensive line, a decent QB/RB tandem and a solid defense but I think there are some cracks when you look underneath the surface. Their depth at key positions of strength is lacking, they have no known wide receivers that will currently threaten the opposition and their secondary is reliant on their scheme to protect against some of the defenses talent deficiencies. The biggest nail in their coffin as far as I am concerned however is their division. Competing against the Eagles and Redskins will be tough, and the Giants are not likely to be the dead rubber that they were last year. This is a make or break year for the Jason Garrett regime and it will be interesting to see how they get on.
10) Playoff & Superbowl Predictions:
AFC:
1) Patriots
2) Chargers
3) Texans
4) Steelers
5) Jaguars
6) Broncos
NFC:
1) Vikings
2) Falcons
3) Eagles
4) 49ers
5) Saints
6) Packers
Superbowl: Chargers vs Falcons
Winner: Falcons
Game predictions (last years record - 67% correct win/loss:
ATL@PHI; 35-28: A battle between two NFC heavyweights and offensive juggernauts. Even with Carson Wentz still on the side-line, expect this to be a high scoring affair with opportunistic defenses likely to decide the winner in this one.
X-factor: Falcons defense – In the past the Eagles defense would have definitely seemed like the stronger unit. Now armed with a defense that is built like that from his Seattle days, expect all three levels to be up to the challenge and live by the mantra of bending, taking and not breaking.
BUF@BAL; 17-23: A matchup between two relative unknowns for preseason predictors. The Bills are certainly in flux after another lost season and QB change, while the drafting of Lamar Jackson in Baltimore suggests that time is of the essence for Joe Flacco. With both teams leaning on their defenses in this one, expect Flacco to be the difference in this one.
X-factor: Joe Flacco – The cerebral QB is very much playing for his career this year and week 1 is certainly a challenge he should be able to handle. With a revamped line and a healthy receiving core, Flacco will be looking to prove all those doubters wrong.
PIT@CLE; 25-21: This game will be a fantastic litmus test for both rosters as the Steelers look to quell the rumours of them being weakened and the Browns look to build upon a successful draft. Ultimately I’d expect the Steelers offense to have enough about them in this game, but the Tyrod Taylor led Browns offense is not the same as the iteration that has come out of Cleveland in the last two years.
X-factor: Browns defense – Many believe this is the year that this defense clicks, with edge rusher Myles Garrett leading a talented defensive line and pass rush. Week 1 may be a little too early for this team, but they could change this game if they are more up to speed than everyone anticipates.
CIN@IND; 21-27: Another tough one to call as last year’s underperforming Bengals roster comes up against a Colts roster that finally has Andrew Luck under center. If Luck is fully fit he can keep the Colts in any game, if he is not this is likely to be another lost year for Indianapolis.
X-factor: Andrew Luck – Throughout the summer news outlets have finally been suggesting that the perennial MVP candidate is finally looking like his old self again, that is fantastic for Colts fans and the NFL. He is what makes this team tick and on week 1 (like most weeks), he will be the reason as to whether they win or lose their home opener.
TEN@MIA; 24-21: With a new coaching staff taking over in Tennessee and a QB returning from knee surgery in Miami, there are plenty of storylines for both franchises off the field. On the field we are looking are two fringe playoff contenders really needing victories to cement their early season form. There is very little to choose between the two teams right now and I am simply picking the squad that managed to break its playoff drought last season.
X-factor: Tennessee offense: With a new scheme to learn and younger personnel involved, this unit will be the engine of the Titans playoff hopes this season. They come to Miami needing to prove themselves this weekend and so they are my key to the Titans success in this game.
SF@MIN; 24-30: Another fantastic week 1 NFC match-up. The darlings of the Christmas season come up against one of the juggernauts of last year. With a full offseason of the Lynch, Shanahan & Garopollo combination it will be interesting to see the level the 49ers can now play too. Unfortunately for them they come up against a Vikings roster that is extremely talented and now has the QB to go with it too. Expect this to be a fantastic litmus test for both teams for the season ahead.
X-factor: 49ers defense – We all know both teams should be able to move the ball on offense and the Vikings defense is one of the best in the business. What is unknown is the relative strength of the 49ers defense. If they hope to push for a playoff spot, this unit will have to perform like it did at the end of last season and if it does, they may just be able to pull off an upset in Minnesota.
HOU@NE; 31-38: This is likely to be as electric as last season’s matchup between the two rosters. With Watson, Watt and Clowney back in action the Texans have a real opportunity to dethrone the defending AFC champs. However, I would expect Brady and company to be ready for the fight and their experience may just shine out in week 1.
X-factor: Patriots receiving corps – With a lot of movement in the offseason and Edelman’s suspension it will be interesting to see who steps up for Tom Brady. He will certainly need some targets and their ability to succeed in this high pressure opener will certainly be a litmus test for the rest of the season.
TB@NO; 21-35: NFC South matchup between two rosters at different points in their journey. Although the Bucs would love the think they are in the playoff hunt, they have a long way to go to catch up in their own division let alone in the NFC. This will be proven as the Saints invite them into town for week 1. Expect the offense to be too much for the Bucs and Alvin Kamara to be a nightmare for the Bucs defense.
X-factor: Saints defense – A huge factor in the revival last season. It will be interesting to see whether they can take the next step this season, especially given the draft capital they gave up to select edge rusher Marcus Davenport in the first round in April.
JAX@NYG; 35-20: Yes the Giants certainly had one of the most glamourous drafts of recent seasons in April with Saquon Barkley hopefully providing some respite for Eli Manning this season. What they still aren’t prepared for however is one of the top 3 defenses in the league at full strength. The Jags certainly got by on the strength of their defense and in this game that is likely to win it for them against the Giants.
X-factor: Giants O-line – This has been a mess for years and without fixing its issues Manning and Barkley are likely to be running for their lives. With the pressure that the Jags defense can create, it will be interesting to see how they cope with their opening assignment of the season.
KC@LAC; 17-24: A fantastic divisional game to watch in this one. With Patrick Mahomes now under center and a Chargers roster that is considered to be a potential sleeper Superbowl contender, this is likely to be a fantastic game to watch. The edge for me goes to the experienced Chargers offense, but don’t be surprised if there is an upset in this one.
X-factor: Patrick Mahomes – Now given the keys to the franchise, it will be interesting to see how he deals with the pressure of week 1 in LA. Mahomes certainly has the talent to lift this Chiefs roster beyond the Alex Smith days, it is up to him to now prove it.
WAS@ARI; 21-17: With two very different rosters and QB’s on the field in 2018, it will be interesting to see how both squads fair in week 1. Given the amount of changes in Arizona this offseason I am going to give the edge to the Redskins and their new game manager Alex Smith.
X-factor: Arizona Defense – With much of the lifeblood of their vaunted defense gone to pastures new, it will be interesting to see how this unit performs in 2018. With a new coordinator, new scheme and new personnel, their performance is likely to define how competitive the Cardinals can be this year.
DAL@CAR; 21-24: Tough game to call between a very much revamped Cowboys roster (only three players older than 30) and a Panthers roster looking to redefine their edge. Expect this game to be tight, with the ground game focus of both teams leading to potentially bigger plays down the field. The edge goes to the home team in this one as I cannot see a reliable target for Dak Prescott to throw too at this time.
X-factor: Cowboys Receivers – With Dez Bryant gone and Jason Witten retired it will be interesting to see how this unit is defined in 2018. Their lack of star power certainly suggests it may be a weak spot, but with Carolina’s frailty in the secondary it will be interesting to see whether they can exploit their opponents in week 1.
SEA@DEN; 21-24: A tough one to call with both teams going through on the fly rebuilds. Seattle is very much an offensive focused team now, while the Broncos are hoping that Case Keenum is the answer to their post Peyton Manning QB drought. At home at Sports Authority field I would expect the revamped Broncos to just have the edge in this one.
X-factor: Broncos D – With many of the well-known faces of their defense now gone, it is up to some new players to step up to the plate. With Von Miller still around and first round pick Bradley Chubb on the other side, it will be interesting to see how this revamped defense deals with Russel Wilson and co.
CHI@GB; 21-30: This score-line is likely to closer than many expect, given the upgrades the Bears have made in the offseason. With a new head coach, new defense and brand new key defensive player in Khalil Mack, expect the Bears product on the field to be more bearable this season. That being said at Lambeau field, against a division rival and Aaron Rodgers in week 1 is likely to be bridge too far for these young bears.
X-factor: Green Bay Receiving Core – We all know what they have in Aaron Rodgers. With Jordy Nelson gone, the Packers will be looking for others to step up and be the focus of Rodgers laser passes. It will be interesting to see how this unit steps up in week 1 and throughout the season.
NYJ@DET; 14-31: This is likely to be a mismatch of teams at different stages in their roster construction. The Jets are very much rebuilding, the Lions are a fringe playoff contender. Expect the result to outline that.
X-factor: Sam Darnold – Although likely to struggle and learn from his mistakes early on, Darnold has impressed many with his budding skillset and leadership abilities. He may not lead them to victory in week 1 but expect him to make a play or two on Monday night.
LAR@OAK; 31-21: Two teams with turbulent pasts and relatively turbulent presents for different reasons. The Rams have arguably assembled one of the most talented rosters in the NFL although character issues remain a concern, while the Raiders have had a strange offseason highlighted by their trade of Khalil Mack and expensive signing of Head Coach Jon Gruden. I’d expect the Raiders to have improved upon last year’s product, but the Rams offense and ferocious front four on the defensive line are likely to be too much for the Raiders in week 1.
X-factor: Aaron Donald – Armed with the most expensive d-lineman contract in the NFL history expect him to be a nightmare to deal with for opposing offensive lines. His ability to break through double coverage, pressurise the run as well as the pass and open up space for teammates makes him vital to the Rams chances both in week 1 and all season.
