Predicting NBA Free Agency
The NBA Finals has been won by the Cleveland Cavaliers for the first time in their franchise history, the NBA Draft has come and gone, so now it's the time we've all been waiting for: free agency. We knew 2 summers ago that this would be the summer of Kevin Durant, and that's exactly what it's going to be. That along with the money flying around, we're in for a very crazy summer. The main reason for the craziness is the fact that the salary cap has jumped to $94 million, giving most of the league enough cap room to add a max player.
Before we get into this post, I'm going to remind everyone that you CAN'T freak out over the contracts that are going to be agreed/signed to. You CAN'T freak out when Evan Turner gets $16 million per year, or when Marvin Williams gets $14 million per year. Now, let's get into the top 5 free agents at each position and where I think they'll end up signing, and a team to watch out for in the sweepstakes.
NOTE: Free agency begins Friday at 12:00AM ET
Point Guards
1. Mike Conley - Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Team to Watch: San Antonio Spurs
The whole league and everyone watching it knows that the Memphis Grizzlies are behind the times, and I think Conley is realizing that too. It's not a secret that he loves playing in Memphis and that style fits him, but how can he feel comfortable staying in a place where he knows they can't draw major free agents and Gasol has injury concerns. In Dallas, I see him loving the pick and roll/pop situations with Dirk and that will give them a much better chance at Hassan Whiteside and make this an interesting playoff team.
The Spurs have been reported to be interested in Conley if he decides to leave. Parker isn't the player he used to be and the Spurs are always near the top of free agents lists. If they move some cap around and make a competitive offer, Conley becomes their next point guard to try and keep the Spurs championship legacy going.
2. Rajon Rondo - Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Brooklyn Nets
Team to Watch: Miami Heat
Rondo is probably the most frustrating free agent of this class. He could easily be the Rondo we saw in the Boston days, but his ego won't allow him to be. He was forced to take the Kings 1 year offer last year, and I think we'll see a similar situation play out this summer. Rondo could be great as a stabilizer off of the bench for a contender, but I see him wanting to be the starter and try to prove himself once again.
3. Jeremy Lin - Charlotte Hornets
Prediction: Charlotte Hornets
Team to Watch: Houston Rockets
Lin desperately wants to be a starter in the league again, but he was such a good fit in Charlotte last year that I can't see him leaving. He put up a season that could have won 6th man of the year if the voters change their tune to that award. He can stay under the radar while being a key contributor to a playoff team.
4. Jordan Clarkson - Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
Team to Watch: Milwaukee Bucks
Clarkson the last 2 seasons has shown to be a pretty promising player with high offensive upside. With the Lakers chasing big names, teams might be able to snatch away the restricted free agent if they come in with a high offer. Both the Bucks and the Sixers are young and growing teams that need an offensive punch and have cap room.
5. Brandon Jennings - Orlando Magic
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
Team to Watch: New York Knicks
Yep, this is how bad the point guard class is this year. Brandon Jennings makes the top 5. He's still a capable scorer in the league, but he's not nearly the player he was projected to be after his rookie season. He could go to a number of places that needs scoring (not Milwaukee), and the Kings would make some sort of sense. He'd be able to fight for the starting spot and be a main offensive contributor. I see Jennings taking a 1 year deal to try and up his value for next summer.
Honorable Mentions: Deron Williams (Dallas Mavericks), Austin Rivers (Los Angeles Clippers)
Shooting Guards
1. DeMar DeRozan - Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
Team to Watch: Los Angeles Lakers
News broke a week ago that DeRozan was not going to meet with other teams so he can focus on a new deal with the Raptors, which to anyone that's been paying any sort of attention (looking at you Stephen A. Smith), is no surprise. Where else can he sign where he's a top option on a fringe finals contender? Nowhere. I think it'll take a bit longer than expected to get an actual agreed deal, only because I see Masai Ujiri trying to work some magic to try and get a big name player at the power forward spot.
The Los Angeles Lakers only become a team to watch if talks between DeRozan and the Raptors break down.
2. Dwyane Wade - Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat
Team to Watch: New York Knicks
We all think of Dwyane Wade as a Heat lifer, but now that reports are coming out that he's going to be entertaining outside offers, the Heat surely have to be worried. He's stated before that he's done taking discounts for the Heat and if they lowball him early in free agency, Wade could very well be on the move. In the end though I can't see Pat Riley letting the face of the Heat franchise walk for nothing.
The Knicks would be an interesting team for Wade only due to the fact that it would increase the likelihood of a super team next season. Cleveland would also be an interesting possibility, but he'd have to take a pay cut of almost $25 million and I don't see that happening at all. I also can't see anyone other than LeBron James leaving South Beach for Cleveland.
3. Bradley Beal - Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards
Team to Watch: None
Bradley Beal has maintained the stance that he's a max player, and in today's day in age he may be right. I don't necessarily think that an often injured guard that once admitted is likely going to need a minutes restriction for the rest of his career should get a max, but his skills will demand that salary. He's a restricted free agent so the Wizards will likely match any offer that comes his way, making this prediction a pretty easy one.
4. Kent Bazemore - Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Team to Watch: Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks would love to bring back Bazemore, but if they bring back Horford on a max deal they won't be able to afford him since they don't hold his bird rights. The Wolves have lots of money to spend this year and Bazemore can capitalize of a season where he was instant offense for a Hawks team that relied on him when Kyle Korver was struggling. Getting extra shooting to go along with that monster starting lineup in Minnesota will set them up really well for the future.
The Hawks would retake the top spot for Bazemore's services if Al Horford leaves for another team.
5. Dion Waiters - Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
Team to Watch: Sacramento Kings
The trade that brought Victor Oladipo to the Thunder likely means the end for Dion Waiters. He had a pretty good run in the playoffs, so I would think he'll get a good amount of suitors. I'm not sure if you can trust his personality, but when he's fully engaged he's a pretty good two-way player. He's probably best served in the 6th man role and I could also see him fitting well with the tough players the Grizzlies already have. We all know they could use some scoring.
Honorable Mentions: JR Smith (Cleveland Cavaliers), Eric Gordon (New York Knicks), Evan Turner (Boston Celtics)
Small Forwards
1. Kevin Durant - Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Team to Watch: Miami Heat
KD is taking meetings with 6 teams so far, but the only team he should really consider this summer is the Thunder. Being up 3-1 on the defending champs puts you in a pretty position at the negotiating table, and the draft night trade that netted them Oladipo will take even more pressure off of Durant on the defensive end. Consider me part of the consensus that believes Durant will take a 2 year deal with a 1 year opt out to put himself in line for a possible $40 million per year max deal next summer.
Miami becomes a team to watch due to the fact that Pat Riley has a way with signing big time free agents. They have the market to draw a big time star, and if Riley can convince that Wade can keep turning back the clock and Bosh will come back full strength next year, we could very well see Durant in South Beach.
2. LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Team to Watch: None
In a previous post I thought that James would be a great candidate to sign with the Knicks if the Cavs ended up winning the title, but during the parade he told reporters he's going to remain a Cavalier. I should have forseen that James would want to be in Cleveland when the championship rings are passed out and the banner gets raised, so this year will not be the year to worry about James leaving the Cavs once again. However, if the Cavs fail to repeat, James could be a serious threat to leave and create his James-Wade-Melo-Paul super team in New York City next summer.
3. Nicolas Batum - Charlotte Hornets
Prediction: Charlotte Hornets
Team to Watch: Toronto Raptors
Batum played a huge role in the Hornets return to the playoffs last season, and the Hornets are reported to want to bring him back on a near max deal. I think he ends up taking it because he won't make nearly as much money anywhere else, and he proved to be a good fit with the team as a top 2 option.
The Raptors become a team to watch due to their GM Masai Ujiri. He's been a fan of Batum for a long time and if he can clear any decent cap room, he'll be sure to put in an offer. If Batum values a better chance at winning at about $5-10 million per year less, he could be on the move.
4. Harrison Barnes - Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
Team to Watch: Philadelphia 76ers
Reports say that Barnes will be the Warriors top priority if they miss out on Kevin Durant, which is why I think he'll end up staying. He had an awful finals, but he's been a key contributor for the team ever since he's been drafted. I really don't think Durant will end up signing with the Warriors so that means Barnes will stay.
But since the Warriors are bound to spend most of their start to free agency courting Kevin Durant, it means there's a chance they lose Barnes. The Sixers would be smart to put in a big offer sheet early in the free agency period if they're serious about signing him, putting some pressure on the Warriors to match the offer sheet and lose out on Durant.
5. Chandler Parsons - Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Team to Watch: Miami Heat
Parsons opted out of a $16 million dollar player option for next season to join the new market, and it could favor him very well. He's been injured as the past 2 seasons, but once teams start missing out on their top options, Parsons will reap the rewards. The Magic have been clear about their quest to become competitive quick and add veteran pieces, and they'll be the one to massively overpay Parsons because it is their nature to do so. The Mavericks don't want to offer Parsons big money, and it's become clear the past week or so that it's what Parsons is looking for.
The Heat would be an intriguing option for him if they end up losing Hassan Whiteside. They have plenty of money to play with, and if they want him to come and play in a small ball lineup featuring Bosh at center, it could be a good fit.
Honorable Mentions: Luol Deng (Minnesota Timberwolves), Joe Johnson (Miami Heat)
Power Forwards
1. Al Horford - Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Boston Celtics
Team to Watch: Detroit Pistons
Horford has played center with the Hawks for basically his entire career, but he's a better fit as a power forward. The Hawks are sure to offer him max money to stay, but the farthest they've gotten is the 2nd round only to lose to a team led by LeBron James. The Celtics have max money and they'll be going after free agents hard. They have an intriguing young roster and future flexibility, and I could see Horford taking a chance with that roster.
The Pistons are my team to watch because after the recent trade trade that sent Jodie Meeks to Orlando, they have room for a max player. Despite the sweep, they played the Cavs pretty tough in the first round of the playoffs and pairing Horford with Andre Drummond would make for one of the best frontcourts in the conference.
2. Pau Gasol - Chicago Bulls
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
Team to Watch: Memphis Grizzlies
Gasol has been one of the better veteran players in the league for a long time now, and this will probably be his last big contract. What Gasol values even more than that though is a chance to win. If Tim Duncan retires, then you can all but guarantee that Gasol will be his replacement.
Memphis becomes the team to watch for Gasol because he has floated around the idea that he would love the chance to be able to play with his brother Marc.
3. Ryan Anderson - New Orleans Pelicans
Prediction: Washington Wizards
Team to Watch: Sacramento Kings
The Wizards have max cap room, and now that they've been denied a meeting with Kevin Durant, they've shifted their focus to Ryan Anderson. He's a great stretch four and he'd fit pretty well alongside Gortat, as well as being the #3 offensive option behind Wall and Beal.
The Kings have lots of money to spend too, and they're in the market for a stretch four to place alongside DeMarcus Cousins.
4. Dirk Nowitzki - Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Team to Watch: Golden State Warriors
It's hard for me to see Dirk playing in any uniform other than a Mavs uniform. He's been the face of the franchise for the last 15 years and I don't see that changing any time soon. And if they end up getting a big time free agent or two, there's no way he leaves.
Golden State becomes a team to watch especially if the Mavs end up striking out in free agency once again. It could get to a point where Dirk says, "I love Dallas, but I don't want to spend the twilight of my career missing the playoffs on a mediocre team." He'd likely come off the bench for the Warriors, but Dirk has been well known to make personal sacrifices for future team success.
5. Marvin Williams - Charlotte Hornets
Prediction: Houston Rockets
Team to Watch: Washington Wizards
Marvin Williams is probably more well known for the guy that got drafted one spot ahead of Chris Paul, but the past few seasons he's been really productive. He's grown his game to be a reliable stretch four and he should come at an affordable cost. The Rockets have been in the market for a stretch 4 for the least few years, and Williams would be a good fit in D'Antoni's offense.
The Wizard would also be a good option if they end up missing out on Ryan Anderson.
Honorable Mentions: Jared Sullinger (Houston Rockets), David West (San Antonio Spurs)
Centers
1. Andre Drummond - Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
Team to Watch: None
Drummond is a restricted free agent, so the Pistons could match any offer sheet he signs. It seems like a forgone conclusion that the Pistons will sign Drummond to a max deal once free agency starts, so don't expect him to be wearing another uniform next season.
2. Hassan Whiteside - Miami Heat
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Team to Watch: Los Angeles Lakers
Whiteside last year continued his breakout pace, putting him in line for a likely max deal this summer. Crazy for a guy that wasn't in the league just 2 years ago. You always have to worry about his attitude, but you can't deny his talent. He's an elite shot blocker and is growing offensively. A few weeks ago he said he's "A business man that plays basketball", so that means if the Heat lowball him on initial offers, he's likely gone. Can't forget that he's 27 years old and this could be the only chance he has at big money. Dallas has been desperate for an impact center ever since they traded Tyson Chandler 5 years ago, and I'd expect Whiteside to be near the top of Cuban's shopping list July 1st.
However, if he doesn't want to be the 3rd wheel in the Mavericks machine like he was in Miami, the Lakers would make for a great play. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Whiteside thinks he can be the next great center in Lakers history, and once the Lakers inevitably miss out on the big fish, they'll likely offer Whiteside a huge deal. If he's still on the market he'll be wearing the purple and gold.
3. Bismack Biyombo - Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
Team to Watch: Toronto Raptors
Bismack Biyombo and his finger wag tribute broke out this past playoffs, where he dominated the defensive end and became a fan favorite north of the border. The Raptors don't have the cap space to bring him and DeRozan back so he's likely gone. Milwaukee took a huge step back on the defensive end this past season and Greg Monroe doesn't offer much rim protection. The Bucks could offer Biyombo big money and the chance to start and anchor their defense. He'd fit right in as an athletic and long defender they've been stocking up on the last few years.
It feels weird putting the incumbent team as a team to watch, but reports say that Biyombo is willing to wait and see what the Raptors can do in free agency for a possible return, so if Ujiri can pull of some major cap magic while keeping the Raptors competitive and Biyombo taking a considerable discount, he'd love to return to the 6.
4. Dwight Howard - Houston Rockets
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Team to Watch: Portland Trailblazers
Dwight Howard has been a lightning rod of criticism after his exit from the Magic, but even at 30 years old he can still be a great contributor in the right situation. The market for him isn't going to be as big as it was the last time he was a free agent, but he'll still get a big contract. If the Hawks lose out on Horford I think they'll end up being desperate for a big name at center. Last time he was a free agent Howard said he didn't want to go back to play in his hometown of Atlanta, but there he'd be a top option, while getting close to max money.
5. Festus Ezeli - Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Team to Watch: Milwaukee Bucks
With the Warriors going after every big time free agent this year, along with Ezeli's poor performance in the finals, it could mean a change of scenery for Ezeli. The Lakers need a center and if they miss out on Hassan Whiteside, I'm sure Luke Walton will make his former player a priority. He'd command decent money and he'd start right away for an up and coming team in a huge market.
Honorable Mentions: Joakim Noah (New York Knicks), Al Jefferson (New Orleans Pelicans)
Make sure to follow on Twitter @thomas_mooney1 and @AFewGoodMics. Comment below to discuss free agency!
