NFL16 Cherry Picks W17: MVP Field's Fat But Houseman Meter Says Brady Ain't In It

Dec. 28, 2016

Even as New England Patriots starry signal-caller Tom Brady, on a brilliant but semi-season (12), may win the MVP on the anti-Goodell vote, a group not dissimilar to that which decided Election 2016, Brady nevertheless must be ineligible, opening the door to the widest field of candidates in years, winner who won’t be clear until the regular season is in the books. With Falcons’ Matt Ryan the frontrunner entering final Week 17, its match-ups bearing on this rank, player and to a smaller degree team performance will decide the winner, making the baker’s dozen below as tight a pack as a Friday afternoon subway.

Top contenders for NFL 2016 MVP:

1. Matt Ryan

2. David Johnson

3. Landon Collins

4. Dak Prescott

5. Ezekiel Elliott

6. Alec Ogletree

9. Kwon Alexander

10. Le’Veon Bell

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Bobby Wagner

13. Justin Tucker

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The football MVP might just be an award more valuable than a championship ring, at least Cam Newton and Rich Gannon hope so.

The biggest personal prize in pro football this side of the 49th parallel is about momentum, early (W5), on-going (consistency) & uninterrupted.

With one more game remaining for all 32 in this 2016 NFL season, one more chance for players with MVP aspirations to prove their worth in the eyes of the Associated Press, the obscure but finely calibrated John Houseman MVP Meter is pointing to Matt Ryan as the most valuable and deserving player for the coveted prize.

Be aware, this meter gauges the player who most deserves the MVP, not who ultimately receives the majority of AP votes.

Wondering what is the Houseman MVP Meter?

John Houseman (1902-88) was a noted producer of theater (Federal / Mercury) and then films who later in life became an actor of note in supporting roles in such movies as The Paper Chase (73 (Oscar®)), Three Days of the Condor and the classic sporting flick, the original Rollerball (75). But he may be best remembered for his Smith Barney TV ads uttering in his distinctive high-hat voice, “They earn money the old-fashioned way, they eaaaaaarn it.” Get it?

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The time of announcing the MVP winner should change.

In recent years, the NFL - NFLPA decided it’d be cute to announce MVP winner at a ceremony the nite just prior to playing the Big Game (SB), someone I expect who has no real knowledge of athletics or interest therein. For if they did, they’d know that receiving word of having won what is admittedly a terrific recognition, is about the LAST thing a player, his coaches & teammates, want (or need) to hear < 24 hours before suiting-up for the biggest game of their lives.

Think Cam Newton needed to know he was voted League’s top player in 2015 the nite before kickoff? I doubt it (See; SB50).

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Who Won’t Win

Defenders

The AP - MVP awarding is, of course, a flawed process, not unlike the Heisman awarding for the supposed best player in a collegiate season. One defender has taken the college equivalent to MVP in its 83 years in Michigan’s Charles Woodson (DB / 97), two NFL defenders winning MVP in Minnesota Supreme Court Justice, Alan Page, as member of the vaunted Vikings’ Purple People Eaters (71) and Giants’ game-changing linebacker in Lawrence Taylor (86).

As in most years, a defender will not win the MVP. Not because Landon Collins, Alec Ogletree & Kwon Alexander don’t deserve it, quite the contrary. When the fat field of contenders is assessed with a football savvy mind, tacklers rank high. And with no clear-cut offensive frontrunner this season, a defender should rate high. But AP voters, like most sport observers, think they understand offense best and can’t get enough (sticky-gloves), on field or off (MVP).

Receivers

2016 Toppers like Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, they’ve gotta’ have well over 1500 yards gained in reception, along with 20+ TDs just to be considered. No qualifiers this year.

INT quarterbacks

Big Ben, Luck, Brees (71.C%), Jameis & Eli have too many INTs, i.e., mistakes. Hit the high-40s in TD passes and double-digit INTs won’t weigh so heavy, a huge toss total none of the above mentioned have approached in 2016. In fairness to field generals, until NFL starts judging INTs with an eye for accuracy, detracting deflected-pass INTs from QB tallies, we can’t know for certain exactly how many true interceptions signal-callers actually threw in a season.

Who May Win

Running backs

The last to haul in the AP was…AP, Adrian Peterson in 2012. If he’s the standard, your team need not win their division (NFCN - GB), you need not score a ton (13 TD) nor forge top receiving stats (40 - 217). But pass that 2000 rush barrier (2097) and get good mojo going with media (and blogisphere (moi)) around mid-season and you’ve got a serious shot at the MVP sans a blazing QB.

1. David Johnson (Cardinals): 1233y - 16.TD (run) // 77 - 841y - 4 (rec)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys): 1631 - 15 // 32 - 363 - 1 (ROY)

3. Le’Veon Bell (Steelers): 1268 - 7 // 75 - 616 - 1

Quarterbacks

Firstly, Tom Brady does NOT qualify for the 2016 MVP. Derek Carr doesn‘t either, going out in W16 with injury, but he’s closer than Tom.

Tom’s terrific but missed quarter of the season due to his Deflategate suspension. That’s weighty. Knowingly choose to destroy a phone in an inquiry and you’ll suffer consequences that celebrity won’t deflect.

And if you think the late start somehow worked a burden which TB’s fine play overcame and then now deserves some reward, you can throw that cockamamie theory in the trash with all that Christmas wrapping.

I like Brady. He’s a champion, looks un-enhanced by weight room residency or PEDs and when he speaks, people listen because he thinks about what he says. You won’t hear words like “poopfest” coming from Tom, not publicly, anyway. And it’s that thinking that’s made him maybe the greatest pro QB ever.

But the 2-time winner does…not…qualify. Period.

When Brady receives votes for the award, and he will, those casting will likely have done so, not because they really believe Tom to be 2016’s most valuable man, but instead as pay-back of sorts to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell who ultimately approved the QB‘s Deflategate suspension. But one who thinks it better to show-up Goodell for meting out discipline than to vote with sincerity should not have that vote to cast in the first place. Period.

No Tom in the pool, no problem. It’s a QB league and there are plenty of MVP-caliber QBs in 2016 to fill the bill without working pay-back.

The QB standard

1) TD-ratio

2) W-L (QB League)

3) Completion %

4) yards-per-pass (ypp), and

5) GWD (CC: clutch & composure)

As nearly every starting quarterback today will, with relative ease, surpass the 3000 yard passing mark, that category’s of lesser importance in assessing a signal-caller's MVP worth.

Unlike the 1960s-80s where completion percentages (%), even with greats like Starr and Staubach, were often in the mid-50s, in the 2000s the MVP-caliber quarterback should be well over the 60.C% mark.

1. Matt Ryan; 34-7, C% 69.5, 10-5, 9.3, 2gwd

2. Dak Prescott: 23-4, 68, 13-2, 8.0, 5gwd

3. Aaron Rodgers: 36-7, 65.5, 9-6, 7.2, 2.gwd

4. Derek Carr: 28-6, 63.7, 12-3, 7.0, 7gwd

5. Matt Stafford: 22-9, 66.1, 9-6, 7.2, 8 (4Q) gwd

Who Will Win?

Not the reigning MVP. Cats’ Cam Newton, for whatever reason (Super pout or strains of fatherhood?), has probably performed more poorly in defense of the prize than any prior (QB) winner since Brian Sipe in 1980, and, like Camster, proceeded to end his season too with a disastrous post-season game versus Tom Flores Raiders when Sipe went 13-40 with 3 INTs in the loss (Plunkett: 14-30, 2 INT). 2016 Newton: 6-6, 54.C%, 17-9, 7.1 (ypp); Sipe: 5-11, 55.C%, 17-25, 6.8.

It’s a tight race so this final slate of game is crucial for all the candidates.

Rivalry match-ups are in store, most of which could decide the outcome and then be fairly termed as ‘the MVP game.’

New Orleans @ Atlanta (Ryan)

Green Bay (Rodgers) @ Detroit (Stafford)

Dallas (Prescott & Elliott) @ Philadelphia

Arizona (Johnson) @ Los Angeles

Giants (Collins) @ Redskins

Of course, New England @ Miami, a GTW no doubt, is not listed.

Tom Brady would be eligible for the Super MVP if Patriots make it that far. But while Brady is ineligible for the regular MVP, fairness & logic are not always in play for voters, as Tom knows full well. If he performs in Miami, expect the junior-media element in the AP (anti-Goodell) to swing the vote, the trophy and the annoying night-before-the-Super-Bowl phone call, Tom’s way.

Ezekiel Elliott is having a tremendous rookie review but his scoring and multi-facet skill-set falls just short of Johnson’s.

Matt Stafford and Derek Carr’s GWD tallies are super but both relied more heavily on the short pass (7-7.3 ypp), good for wins but an MVP detractor. It’s a measure which should boost ranking of the other resplendent Dallas rookie in Dak Prescott who’s been very careful with the ball (4 INT) in Ted Bridgewater fashion but unfortunately looked very average in Cowboys’ losses and a few wins, as well.

Aaron Rodgers, already a vested member of the MVP Club (‘11 / 14), played pedestrian in clutch in season’s first half and didn’t get on radar soon enough to build strong voter support, especially when Tom is in the mix with many. And Rodgers’ 7.2 ypp , that’s junior league for a QB in his class. But there is the Favre Factor (Packer power in the press since 1992) and if GB pounds the Lions, Aaron could steal the trophy.

Who Should Win?

See the above listing, then watch the final game performances. Falcons’ Matt Ryan should take the trophy with a strong final showing against arch-rival Saints but New Orleans has been playing like contenders this second-half and just might derail the Ryan Express, opening the door to the next in line (Johnson), and so on and so forth.

Cherry Picks Week 17

Houston (9-6) @ Tennessee (8-7): 1.1 CBS 1:00: Titans win

Carolina (6-9) @ Tampa Bay (8-7): Fox 1:00: Panthers win

Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9): Fox 1:00: Philly wins

Patriots (13-2) @ Miami (10-5) GTW: CBS 1:00: Pats win

Chiefs (11-4) @ San Diego (5-10): 4:25 CBS: Chargers win

Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Rams (4-11): 4:25 Fox: Arizona wins

Oakland (12-3) @ Denver (8-7): 4:25 CBS: Broncos win

NYG (10-5) @ Redskins (8-6-1) GTW: 4:25 Fox: Giants win

Saints (7-8) @ Atlanta (10-5) GTW: 4:25 Fox: Falcons win

Green Bay (9-6) @ Detroit (9-6) GTW: NBC 8:30: Lions win

Record: 73 - 88 - 2

Steven Keys

NFL HunchLine

Photo credit: M.Ryan, wc, K.Allison, 10.19.14; M.Ryan, wc, E.Drost, 8.18.16; A.Ogletree, wc, Johnmaxmena2, 8.15.13; T.Brady, DC, wc, 8.28.09, K.Allison; cherries-cloth, picdrome, wc, 6.2011; NFL-symbol, wikiproject