Mavericks Draft: The Possible Sliders
We've all been wrapped up in the NBA Finals, as it nears its sixth game, but the 2016 NBA Draft is just 9 days away. The Dallas Mavericks utilized last year's draft pick to perfection for the first time in a long time as they took a promising wing in Justin Anderson with the 21st overall pick. This year's pick is going to be a little different. The Mavs don't have the 21st pick, in fact, they're just one of just nine teams without a first round pick this summer. (The Nets, Knicks, Wizards, Blazers, Thunder, Heat, Cavs and Rockets are the other 8) That being said, there will be a lot of talent available at the 46th overall spot, right where Dallas will be picking.
Draft stock of players rises and falls like the Stock Market, mock drafts are rarely anywhere close to 100%, projected first rounders can slip to the second, projected second rounders can go undrafted, and players could be selected way higher than they should. The only thing you can expect in the draft is the unexpected. At 46, Cuban, Donnie, and the rest of Dallas' front office are crossing their fingers that a first round talent can fall into their laps. Before we get into possible draftees, take a look at these two notable players that were recently selected with the 46th pick:
Danny Green
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Chad Ford's Overall Rank at Time of Draft: 45
Chad Ford's Projection at Time of Draft: Late to early second
Drafted: 46th by CLE (2009)
Statistics: 9.1 PPG, 1.6 AST, 3.4 REB
Jordan Clarkson
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Chad Ford's Overall Rank at Time of Draft: 29
Chad Ford's Projection at Time of Draft: Middle of first round
Drafted: 46th by WAS (Traded to LAL)
Statistics: 14.0 PPG, 2.9 AST, 3.7 REB
Is it easy to find a guy that can become a role player that late in the draft? No, but it definitely isn't as hard as most NBA fans would think. Now, I'll put three guys that shouldn't, but definitely could, fall to Dallas in the middle of the second round under a microscope.
PG: Demetrius Jackson
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Chad Ford's Overall Rank: 26
DraftExpress Rank: 24
2015-16 College Statistics: 15.8 PPG, 4.7 AST, 3.5 REB
Why He Could Fall: As made obvious by his near 16 points per game, Jackson can score the basketball, however, he needs to improve his three-point percentage. The point guard out of Notre Dame's three point shooting took a pretty significant dip from .43% in his sophomore season, to .33% in his junior season. A declining statistic going into your final college year is never encouraging, unless of course we're talking about turnovers. Another downside to Demetrius is his age. Teams in this NBA era look for the youngest players that can contribute and develop. I don't think the age of a draftee should play as big of a role as it does, but I'm not in an NBA front office (I'm 18, give me a break). Jackson is 21 years old, but while he may be better than some 18 year olds taken ahead of him, teams like to take that younger guy so they can develop him the way they like. The final thing that could lead to Jackson's free fall in the draft would be his size. The average size of today's NBA point guard is 6'5 and 205 pounds; Demetrius Jackson is 6'1 and 195 pounds. I'll just leave it at that.
Why He Shouldn't Fall: In my mind, Jackson is a top 5 point guard coming out of this year's draft class, and that's saying a lot with the names that are in there. The junior is an all-around athlete that can pull up off the dribble and attack the basket with pre-injury-Derrick-Rose-type explosiveness. With a 5:2 assist to turnover ratio, Jackson sees the floor well and rarely turns the ball over while handling it and running the show. Demetrius Jackson has proved himself over his three years under coach Mike Brey, especially in the NCAA tournament. Another reason it's difficult to see the Notre Dame product slipping is that there are many teams ahead of Dallas in the late first round that could use the services of Jackson. The Clippers at 25 may be losing backup Austin Rivers and could easily slide Jackson in that spot behind CP3. The 76'ers at 26, for obvious reasons. San Antonio at 29 is stuck with an aging Tony Parker as their starter, so it could be time to start developing yet another young stud. These are just three of many teams that come to mind that could use Demetrius Jackson for quite a few years.
Why Dallas Would Draft Him: Demetrius Jackson is obviously an attractive draft prospect, but why should Dallas in particular draft him if he slips that far? Well Deron Williams and Raymond Felton, two of the Mavs' productive point guards are opting out and looking to make more money somewhere. JJ Barea and Devin Harris are 31 and 33 years old, respectively. Not to mention, Harris is a bit injury prone. So maybe it's time to get younger at the point position while getting a bit more explosive too.
SG: Malcolm Brogdon
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Chad Ford's Overall Rank: 38
DraftExpress Rank: 44
2015-16 College Statistics: 18.2 PPG, 3.1 AST, 4.1 REB
Why He Could Fall: Brogdon, much like Demetrius Jackson, knows how to score based on his statistics, but there are some things that the statistics can't tell you that could lead to him falling below where he should in this draft. Malcolm was hit with a devastating foot injury in just his second season with Virginia, leading to a redshirt season for the sophomore. Since Brogdon was one of the few kids that played out all four years of his eligibility and was redshirted one season, the draftee is now 23 years old. Age is way more than just a number when it comes to the NBA. Another downside to Brogdon is his lack of explosiveness. The former Cavalier isn't "unathletic" by any stretch of the imagination, but his leaping ability is very limited and his first step is well below average. The final aspect of Brogdon's game that needs work in order for him to be very affective at the professional level will be creating his own shot. He has trouble pulling up off the dribble and shooting over better defenders at the collegiate level. Better defenders in college are usually just average defenders in the NBA.
Why He Shouldn't Fall: 18.2 points per game. I don't care if you're 18 or 38, that's a lot of points to put up on a regular basis. At 6'6 with a near 7'0 wingspan, Brogdon can score on smaller guards and shoot over the top of them with no trouble. Speaking of shooting, Brogdon shoots an efficient 46% from the field and 39% from behind the three point line. With Brogdon's size and strength comes his elite defense. Malcolm defended four different positions for UVA last season on a game to game basis, and did a bang up job at it too. Many scouts and draft insiders have called Malcolm Brogdon a "safe pick", which could lead to teams that have a lot to lose in this draft taking him earlier than the 46th pick.
Why Dallas Would Draft Him: As we know, the Mavs are in win now mode with an aging Dirk Nowitzki (does he ever really age?). There really isn't a whole lot of time to develop some kid that may or may not pan out in another 3 years. We saw Dallas select another former UVA senior in Justin Anderson, and that picked already began to prove valuable by the end of the season. Anderson, being a former teammate of Brogdon would likely push for Dallas to draft him, but he wouldn't be the only one. Head Coach Rick Carlisle is a former wahoowa himself and finds it much easier to trust older guys like Brogdon. Malcolm could easily slide in behind Wes Matthews as a backup two. And hey, if Chandler Parsons decides not to resign, leading to Justin Anderson being the starting three next year, his former teammate could be backing him up as well. I really think Malcolm Brogdon could be the Draymond Green of this draft if he falls below the 31st pick.
PF: Brice Johnson
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Chad Ford's Overall Rank: 37
DraftExpress Rank: 31
2015-16 College Statistics: 17.0 PPG, 1.5 AST, 10.4 REB
Why He Could Fall: Brice Johnson, like Malcolm Brogdon, is a senior. At 21 years old, once again, he's above the average age that teams like to draft. Blah blah blah. I still don't agree with this, Johnson's a stud. Anyway. As a power forward, the senior out of UNC has a very skinny frame, and this makes him an easy target to bully in the paint. Most NBA power forwards who lack the strength to work in the post like Johnson, have a pretty good perimeter jumper. Johnson really has developed a strong mid-range game, but he has yet to take a single three. The last problem that Brice Johnson has is something he can't control. Johnson is surrounded by a very very good group of young bigs in this year's draft that could all go well before him.
Why He Shouldn't Fall: It's very rare to average a double-double for an entire collegiate season. Brice Johnson did this. Johnson is a smart player and plays with an extremely high motor. Two intangibles that any NBA GM is looking for in a guy. Johnson's game is very much above the rim. While he's developed a really strong mid-range jumper, a majority of this kid's points are going to come from dunks in which he's looking down at the rim. At 6'11, his freakish athleticism is really something special. This athleticism not only allows him to get up on offense, but also gives him the advantage of altering and/or blocking his opponents shots when they drive to the bucket when he's manning the middle. While he played extremely consistent all season long, Johnson really stepped up his game when it counted in the NCAA Tournament where he led his Tar Heels to the National Championship Game. In his best game, Brice put up 25 points and pulled down 12 rebounds against Demetrius Jackson and the Fighting Irish in the Elite 8.
Why Dallas Should Draft Him: Rick Carlisle loves to run the pick and roll, we all know that. Remember Tyson Chandler? Or Brandan Wright? Imagine them back in a Dallas jersey as 21 year olds who can shoot a jumper. Bod-a-bing bod-a-boom there's Brice Johnson. Dirk needs a springy young backup, and Johnson can be more than restricted free agent Dwight Powell can be, so this would literally be the perfect pick. Think about an athletic lineup of Justin Anderson, Brice Johnson, and Salah Mejri aka the Tunisian Tower. I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but I just can't help myself. If Jackson, Brogdon, and Johnson are all there at 46, I'm hoping Dallas takes the North Carolina stud, clearly.
Other Possible Sliders: Ben Bentil (Providence), Diamond Stone (Maryland), Taurean Prince (Baylor), Isaiah Cousins (Oklahoma), Stephen Zimmerman (UNLV)
