Mavericks' Free Agent Target Analysis: Danny Green

Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Well we’ve been through the three big names (and big men) the Mavs should be pursuing this summer, but what about the rest of them? Dallas could have two gaping holes at shooting guard and point guard. Rajon Rondo is gone without a doubt, and Monta Ellis has a player option. No one knows what Ellis’ plan is for the summer, but we’re going to assume that he opts out and start looking at other options. Many expect the Mavs to go after their starting two guard in free agency (should Monta leave), and use the draft to find their point guard. “Carlisle wouldn’t start a rookie,” you say, but he may not have a choice. So let’s start by looking at the possible Monta Ellis replacements.

The first shooting guard we’ll uncover is a former Maverick killer. The player I’m talking about is Danny Green. Green was the starting two guard for the San Antonio Spurs and is now an unrestricted free agent. Although Green’s breakout season came in 2011, he began to show his real promise in the 2013-2014 season. Danny Green is particularly known for his three point shooting; but if that’s all you know him for then you need to read this article. First, let us delve into Green’s career:

Career History:

Danny Green played all four years of college at the University of North Carolina, the basketball powerhouse. Green didn’t do much in his first two years at UNC, but he broke through in his junior year. He declared for the draft in 2008, but withdrew his name before it came around. After an impressive shooting season in his senior year, he was projected to be a middle to late 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. The Cleveland Cavaliers selected Danny Green with the 46th pick in the 2009 draft. After only appearing in 20 games with Cleveland, he was waived before the next season started. The San Antonio Spurs gave Green a chance in 2010, but he didn’t do much at all; he only played 8 games and was waived soon after. Danny Green ran out of NBA options in 2011 and settled with signing a D-League contract in which he shined, averaging 20 points per game and about 8 boards. Later in the 2011 season, the Spurs resigned Green and he finally broke through. Green played 66 games with the Spurs that year and ended up starting 38 of them. He shot about 44% from behind the arc and averaged about 9 points and 4 rebounds a game. San Antonio resigned Green that summer for three years, $12 million. Green continued to improve and started every game he played in during the 2012-2013 season. Then in the 2013 NBA playoffs, Green really showed his worth: he made 27 threes in the finals against the Miami Heat. This was a record for the most three pointers made in an NBA finals series. Green’s career has continued to excel, and he has now earned himself the opportunity to find a nice contract this summer. Let’s take a look at why Dallas should, or shouldn’t go after this particular free agent:

PROS AND CONS OF DANNY GREEN:

Pros:

Shooting: Danny Green’s game revolves around his ability to shoot the three ball. Over half of Green’s shot attempts were beyond the arc last season. 9 times out of 10 this wouldn’t be a good thing, but in Green’s case it is a definite positive. Green shot about 36% from the inside the arc and outside of the paint, but he was nearly 41% from three. Danny Green took 4 times as many threes as he did mid-range jumpers last season and made about 4.5 times as many to go along with that. Green scored about 12 points per game last season and at least 6 of those points came off of threes on average last season. The Mavericks haven’t had an amazing three-point specialist since Jason Terry left, perhaps Green could fill that void next year.

Defense: Green has transformed into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league year by year. Although he was drafted, signed, and re-signed for his shooting abilities, his defensive game has developed in these past three seasons with San Antonio. Green’s anticipation and length combine to make him extremely difficult to blow by on the drive. If his opponent does get by him, he has become very adept to blocking the shot from behind. Green’s stats were fairly impressive for a shooting guard defensively last season: 1.2 steals per game, 1.1 blocks per game, and about 4 defensive rebounds per game. While Green stays aggressive with any matchup that is thrown his way, he does very well at not fouling his opponents; he only picks up about 1.5 per game. Green’s two main strengths of three point shooting and defensive aggressiveness make him the “three and D” player the Mavs have been searching for for a long time.

Hard Work and Determination: Green didn’t make it to the association by pure skill. Yes, he always had a good shooting stroke, but he wasn’t always a knock down shooter as he is now. It took lots of hard work for him to earn any playing time or any chance at all, and those kinds of players are welcome on any team. Danny Green is the kind of gritty player Dallas could use in their starting five.

Age and Size: This point is very easy to explain. Danny Green is 6’6, a good size for a shooting guard. Look at it like this: Monta Ellis, the Mavericks’ current starting two guard, is 6’3, so Green would be an upgrade in the size department. He would start at shooting guard if the Mavs should sign him, but he could easily slide into the small forward slot if need be. He’s only 27 years old, so he’s just entering his prime. His age should give the Mavericks confidence to lock him up for a few years, depending on what he’s looking to make.

Cons:

Handling: As a shooting guard, Green isn’t expected to handle the ball too much. Danny Green is one shooting guard that shouldn't be expected to handle the ball, and you won’t want him handling the ball. Green seems to freeze up a bit when the ball is in his hands, and he isn’t shooting. He doesn’t turn the ball over much with only 1.1 per game, but he also doesn’t have the ball in his hands enough to make anything happen, besides a three, with only 1.5 assists per game. Monta Ellis was a ball dominant shooting guard, so would a Danny Green transition be a bad thing?

Creating His Own Shot: Danny Green is excellent at moving without the ball, but he can’t get to the basket or make his own shot with the ball effectively. Green only took 161 shots inside the restricted area, and 304 inside of the three-point line in all. He took a total of 457 threes last year. If he isn’t spotting up or getting an open dunk/lay-up, then you most likely won’t see Green knocking down the shot. Once again, this would be a huge transition from Monta Ellis, who basically made his own shot every time he took one.

So, what do we think about putting Danny Green in a Dallas jersey? I’m all for it. He isn’t a star like Deandre Jordan, LaMarcus Aldridge, or Marc Gasol, but add him to any starting lineup with better players around him, and he’ll thrive. If Monta Ellis leaves, Green should be the first guy the Mavs look to replace him with. Green’s asking price shouldn't be extremely high. I would think anywhere from $3.5-5.5 million per year would be a reasonable amount to sign him for; anymore than that, and the Mavs should start looking elsewhere. Green is the three-and-D player the Mavs have lacked for so long, so he would be a breathe of fresh air. After a couple bigger signings, Dallas should do their best to lock this guy up. The Mavericks’ pursuit of Danny Green all depends on whether or not Monta Ellis opts in.