Here's What Temple Has To Do To Make The NCAA Tournament
Temple has won 7 of their last 8 games and 5 in a row as they have moved onto the bubble thanks to some great non-conference wins. Temple currently sits at 15-10, but they have some very solid wins including three wins over the RPI top 20. The problem is they have a lot of bad losses, but those can still be erased with 5 games left to show they are a tournament team.
This week will make or break the Owls. They play the AAC's 2nd and 3rd place teams currently. On Thursday they will travel to Wichita State and on Sunday they will come home and get Houston. If they can win both, then they will move into the field of 68 in my opinion considering that would give them 5 wins over the RPI top 25, which would be 3rd in the country in wins over the RPI top 25.
It's not the end of the world if they can split those two games. They don't get a bad loss, and that would mean another quality win added to their profile. Obviously a win at Wichita would be huge, but the more winnable game would be Houston for sure. Plus I think the guard oriented offense of Temple matches up better with Houston.
If they lose both of these games, then that means they would need a lot of help to make the tournament. The Owls would then have at least 13 loses assuming they don't get the automatic bid and win the conference tournament and teams not from the power 5 just don't get in when they have that many loses.
Let's say Temple falls Thursday night, but beats Houston at home. Temple would then be 16-11 and it would be crucial the Owls find a way too win out. Their final three games are at home against UCF, and then on the road against UConn and Tulsa. I'd assume Temple would be favored in all three of those games so that would put them at 19-11 going into the conference tournament. Assuming the Owls go 4-1 in this final five games may be a stretch because Temple has been the most inconsistent team in the nation this year, but with how hot they have been, it wouldn't shock me they certainly have the talent.
At this point, they would be 11-7 and probably the #4 seed come conference tournament time and get the final first round bye which could end up hurting them. If they were the #5 seed then they would play #12 (probably last place South Florida) in the first round and then the 4 seed in the second round. At this point, every win matters, but I'd assume they will play either Tulsa or UCF in the 2nd round and then Cincinnati in the 3rd. Assuming a win over Tulsa/UCF and then a loss to Cincinnati would put them at 20-12 to end the year.
Would 20-12 be enough? In 2015 a very similar Tulsa team that went 20-12 got into the Tournament without the amount of quality wins Temple would have. It would be tight, but 20-12 is absolute worst Temple can go, or else they will be NIT bound. The Owls will still have 3 more chances at quality wins (Wichita State and Houston in the regular season and then another one in the conference tournament.) Getting 2 out of 3 would be huge. No matter what, It's crazy to think that Temple was 8-9 just a month ago and no where close to the bubble.
Here is how Temple's current profile stands.
Record: 15-10
RPI: 39
SOS: 11
Quadrant 1 Record: 3-5
Quadrant 2 Record: 6-1
Quadrant 3 Record: 2-3
Quadrant 4 Record: 4-1
KenPom: 83
BPI: 77
