Which Playoff Hopefuls Could Benefit from Using the "Opener" Strategy
Background
The Tampa Bay Rays took the baseball world by storm on May 19th when they debuted their “Opener” strategy vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Many detailed analyses and overviews have been written over the past few months, but in short, the strategy consists of having a relief pitcher throw the first 1-2 innings of the game before turning it over to a “starting” pitcher who will throw anywhere from 4-6 innings after that. Essentially, the idea is to shuffle/order innings in a way that maximizes the value and effectiveness of a pitching staff – both “starters” and “relievers.”
Under perfect circumstances, you would not have to utilize this strategy. Any team would prefer five Max Scherzer’s, or Clayton Kershaw’s, or Jacob deGrom’s, etc. over a game plan that utilizes a relief pitcher in the first inning. However, this is a strategy that came to light due to a lack of depth and is built around the players/personnel to make the most of their respective talents.
There are a few caveats and/or general principles to using the “Opener” strategy. First, and arguably most importantly, you need personnel at multiple levels of the organization to “buy in” to the strategy – without this, there is almost no chance of successful execution. From a more strategic standpoint, the opposing lineup must lend itself to matchup advantages with your chosen “Opener”, you would not use your traditional 8th or 9th inning relievers in this capacity and lastly you only want to utilize the “Opener” 2-3 times per week in order to keep the bullpen fresh.
Teams that Could Utilize the “Opener” Strategy
With all that being said, let’s look at a few teams in the playoff hunt who could potentially utilize the “Opener” strategy down the stretch and into the postseason.
Philadelphia Phillies
Background
The Phillies have largely exceeded expectations in 2018, and even with their recent struggles, find themselves in contention for the NL East title. Much of this has to do with the Cy-Young caliber season of Aaron Nola, who has been an anchor for the Phillies’ staff. Behind Nola, the Phillies have received somewhat surprising contributions from Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Zach Eflin. However, sitting 3.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves with only a month to go, the Phillies are at a point where they might need to do anything they can to prevent runs and make up some ground.
Potential “Openers”
Victor Arano (RHP)
Arano has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies after a cup of coffee in 2017. He has pitched to a 2.60 ERA (2.90 FIP) with 9.52 K/9 and 2.42 BB/9 over 52 innings so far in 2018. He has been very effective at getting right-handed hitters out, limiting them to a .205/.256/.287 line with a .236 wOBA over 125 batters. Arguably more impressive is his 31.2 K% and miniscule 0.29 HR/9 rate vs. RHB’s.
Adam Morgan (LHP)
Morgan started 36 games for the Phillies (albeit without much success) over the course of two seasons before moving to the bullpen in 2017. He’s turned in the most impressive season of his career so far in 2018, pitching to a 3.83 ERA (3.77 FIP) with 9.57 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9 over 42.1 innings. Morgan has especially been effective at getting left-handed hitters out – and has held LHB’s to a .233/.306/.295 line (.267 wOBA) over 99 batters faced. Looking back at his career, Morgan has always been able to get left-handed hitters out and could be a weapon against left-handed heavy lineups such as the Braves (Inciarte, Freeman, Markakis), whom the Phillies happen to have two series against in September.
Potential “Continuers”
Vince Velasquez (RHP)
This is certainly not a slight on Velasquez – as he has produced like a middle-of-the-rotation arm this season. However, there is a significant drop-off in effectiveness his third time through the order; where he has allowed a .264/.359/.411 line with a .339 wOBA and a significantly lower strikeout rate (~ 10% less) over 104 batters faced. Velasquez averages just over 5 IP per start, and with the use of an ‘Opener”, he could realistically work into the 6th of 7th inning before turning the ball over to the bullpen for good.
Zach Eflin (RHP)
Much like Velasquez, Eflin has turned in a very nice 2018 campaign so far, pitching to a 4.05 ERA (3.74 FIP) with 8.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 111 innings. However, he gets tripped up his 2nd time through the order, surrendering a .295/.352/.494 line with a .359 wOBA against 177 batters. His strikeout rate drops off roughly 10% in these middle innings while his walk rate nearly doubles. Eflin has averaged roughly 5 ½ innings per start, and featuring an “Opener” would make it so that he doesn’t face the heart of the opponents’ lineup for a second time until around the 5th or 6th inning.
New York Yankees
Background
While they have long been out of the race for the AL East title, the Yankees have the second best winning percentage in the American League, and have all but locked up a Wild Card berth. Their rotation has been anchored by Luis Severino and 38-year old CC Sabathia, with Masahiro Tanaka contributing as a solid #3. The mid-season addition of J.A. Happ helped to further bolster the staff, but they have struggled to find a 5th starter, shuffling between Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga. Implementing the use of an "Opener" in select games could help the Yankees stabilize this 5th spot in the rotation while also utilizing their rather impressive bullpen arms in a unique way
Potential “Openers”
Jonathan Holder (RHP)
Holder is one of those rarities who neutralizes left-handed batters better than right-handers. He has held LHH to a .194/.231/.265 line with a .219 woBA (108 batters) so far in 2018. He primarily works with a fastball, changeup and slider, and generates whiff rates around 15% on both off-speed offerings. The Yankees have series against the Red Sox (Betts, Bogaerts and JD Martinez) and the Mariners (Haniger, Segura and Cruz) in September – which could provide an opportunity to use Holder in this role.
AJ Cole (RHP)
Cole has been very good at neutralizing right-handed batters in 2018, holding them to a .193/.265/.355 line with a .268 wOBA (119 batters). He attacks RHH with his fastball (27%) and slider (70%) and has generated whiffs at a 20% rate on his slider.
Potential “Continuers”
Sonny Gray (RHP)
Gray hasn’t quite been the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting when they traded for him in 2017, and he has since been moved to the bullpen where he has averaged 2-4 innings in relief. Gray looked like a legitimate #2 starter in Oakland but has gotten tripped up in the early innings with the Yankees. He still generates whiffs on his slider (19.23%) and curveball (15.12%) and gets above average spin rates on both offerings, and there is reason to believe he can regain some of the success he achieved in Oakland if he faces the heart of the opposing lineup one less time.
Lance Lynn (RHP)
Looking at the peripherals, Lynn has turned in a pretty nice season with a .399 FIP and 4.06 xFIP over 137.2 innings. That said, he has allowed an alarmingly high number of baserunners (1.60 WHIP) and an unusually high amount of hard contact (36.4%). He majority of this comes his 3rd time through the order, where he has allowed 32 runs and an opponent .368 wOBA in 32.2 innings. Like Gray, reshuffling the innings could help Lynn be more effective at preventing runs in his 4-6 innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Background
Led by Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke, and a recently resurgent Clay Bucholz, the D-backs are in the thick of an NL West division race – and are currently 2.5 games back from the Colorado Rockies. They have series against both the Rockies and Dodgers later this month, and will need all hands on deck in order to pass both clubs in the standings.
Potential “Openers”
TJ McFarland (LHP)
McFarland has been dominant against left-handed hitters in 2018; holding LHH to a.158/.177/.191 line with a .163 wOBA and striking out 22.7% of left-handers (97 batters). This skillset could be used strategically against the Atlanta Braves, who typically have three LHH hit in the top 4-5 hitters of their lineup (Inciarte, Freeman, Markakis).
Brad Ziegler (RHP)
Ziegler hasn’t quite been as dominant as McFarland, but the sinkerballer has held RHH to a .241/.311/.378 line with a .298 wOBA this season (151 batters). More impressively, he has a 77.6% ground ball rate vs. RHH this season to go along with a 19.2% strikeout rate. These specific talents could be useful when going up against the RHH lineups of the Colorado Rockies (LeMahieu, Arenado, Story and Holliday) and the Houston Astros (Springer, Bregman, Correa and White).
Potential “Continuers”
Zack Godley (RHP)
Godley has been a nice find for the D-backs, and has pitched to a 4.51 ERA (3.75 FIP) with 9.58 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9 over 159.2 innings in 2018. However, he has struggled as he turns the lineup over a couple of times; allowing opponents to hit .285/.369/.488 with a .363 wOBA (187 batters) their 3rd time up at the plate.
Robbie Ray (LHP)
Robbie Ray has been just OK this season, pitching to a 4.25 ERA (4.34 FIP) with 12.02 K/9 and 4.81 BB/9 over 97.1 innings. However, he has historically been pretty good the first time or two through the order, before getting shelled his third time through. He has faced 88 batters a third time in 2018 and has allowed them to hit .299/.386/.622 with a .425 wOBA. Ray has been averaging around 5 innings per start, and the use of an “Opener” would enable him to throw his 5 innings while only facing the heart of the opponents order twice.
Closing
While I can't see this tactic becoming mainstream, multiple teams have contemplated and/or implemented the "Opener" at some level, and it could potentially help a few playoff hopefuls inch their way closer to a postseason birth.