Drew Lock: NFL Draft Profile (10.6)
From a productivity standpoint, few quarterbacks put up the kind of numbers that junior Drew Lock did in 2017. His 44 touchdowns were the most of any quarterback in the nation, more than NFL selections Baker Mayfield (43) or Mason Rudolph (37). In addition, following a 1-5 start, he led the Tigers to 6 straight victories, including 4 in the SEC, and brought the Tigers to their first bowl game since 2014, where they would lose to Texas.
Now a senior, Lock has been doing his best to keep NFL scouts intrigued. Starting off the season with three wins (albeit against completely irrelevant programs), Lock notched his first dud of the young season last week against the vaunted Georgia Bulldogs defense, who crushed the Tigers 43-29 in Columbia. Lock delivered another disappointing performance today in a tight battle with South Carolina, dropping to 3-2 on the season. Despite the loss, Lock is once again putting up fantastic numbers, and is garnering serious first round interest from the league. The real question is: will the impressive statistics at the collegiate level translate in the pros? Let's examine.
Background - Lots of different coaches
Coming out of Lee's Summit in Missouri, Drew Lock was a big get for then HC Gary Pinkel. The program was coming off an SEC Championship appearance, and the 6'4 200lbs 4 star recruit was a much heralded addition to the Mizzou program. However, Lock had a rough freshman year after being named the starter for the final 8 games of the season following an injury to Maty Mauk. He notched just 2 wins in 2015 (4TDs/8INTS, 1332YDS, 49%), and struggled getting in a rhythm in part due to a bad offensive line. The situation seemingly got worse when Pinkel announced his retirement following the 5-7 season.
Lock improved consistently over his sophomore and junior seasons, thanks in part due to OC Josh Heupel's Air Raid offense, and after finishing 124th in total offense in 2015 (280.9), Lock led an offense that ranked 13th in 2016 (500.5) and 7th last season (511.5). Without a doubt, this was one of the most impressive offensive turnarounds in recent memory, and Missouri improved as a team from 4-8 (2-6 in SEC) in 2016 to 7-6 (4-4 in SEC) last year.
In watching Missouri last year against Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina, and Arkansas, this offense tried to wear down defenses with up tempo play, running a lot of crossing routes and screens, and then letting it fly near the boundaries. That being said, Heupel didn't ask Lock to make too many presnap adjustments, Lock often knew where he wanted to go with the ball beforehand, and rarely did Lock work to his third or fourth read to make something happen. This offense would go cold for long stretches before getting a handful of chunk gains for 20+ yards. This big play mentality in part explains Lock's weak completion numbers (career 55.5%) and high average depth of target (11 yards in air per pass).
In 2018, Lock, now working with his third offensive coordinator in four years, is being asked to do a little more from a mental standpoint. New OC Derek Dooley is trying to integrate more complicated concepts into this offense. In the games I've seen (Purdue, Georgia, South Carolina), this means a lot more playaction and short throws, but for the most part, the gameplan seems to be mostly the same as before. Lock had great success against middling opponents Tennessee-Martin, Wyoming, and Purdue, and much less so against SEC opponents South Carolina and Georgia. This has also been the story for much of his and HC Barry Odom's tenure.
Strengths - That's going to be on SportsCenter
Physically, Lock looks the part of an NFL quarterback. He's got good size, mobility, and has a strong arm that can make pretty much every throw on the field. Lock doesn't have an injury history and has yet to miss a start since taking the job back in 2015. When he's in the pocket, Lock slides well and escapes pressure with relative ease, and he has to do this pretty regularly given the state of the Missouri offensive line. Lock also has underrated acceleration for a passer, and he regularly escapes the pocket and keeps the chain moving with a first down run. This offense doesn't ask him to make many timing throws or precision strikes, but he's accurate when he needs to put a little extra mustard on it and throws a pretty good spiral.
As a passer, Lock has been unquestionably productive, and this is in spite of Missouri having one of the worst offensive line and receiving groups I've ever watched. More passes are dropped or bounced off receiver's chests and promptly intercepted than I can count, and his weak completion percentage and middling interception rate is partially explained by this. Lock is probably one of the best intermediate ball passers I've seen at the college level. He often tests the coverage successfully, finding and hitting receivers 15-20 yards down field with relative ease and consistency. In the redzone, Lock makes some fantastic throws, many of which are not completed by his receivers (check the Purdue, Georgia tape). In some regards, he's a highlight reel, because he dominates small schools and average programs with big plays and bigger stat lines.
I haven't found many moments where he made a outright bad decision, threw it into double or triple coverage, or turned it over in key moments. He also is usually playing from behind and has rarely been in a situation where he could win the game. Most often, against big time talent (the SEC), his receivers run the wrong route or cost the Lock an interception by bobbling the pass. This offense doesn't ask Lock to make third or fourth reads very often, which limits the mistakes, but he doesn't go out there with the typical gunslinger mentality.In that respect, he's far more polished than Josh Allen was, as Allen routinely made dumb throws.
Weaknesses - Have we seen this before?
As with all physically gifted quarterbacks in "systems", there are a number of red flags in his game that could hinder his NFL success. For one, while his intermediate ball was quite good, arguably the best part of his game, the short and deep balls leave something to be desired. He gets a lot of balls batted down at the line of scrimmage when throwing short. In addition, on short crossers and curls, Lock has a tendency to sail it or try and zip it in, leading to a lot of incompletions. While Lock likes to test the coverage deep, he actually misses some opportunities because of mediocre accuracy down the field. His receivers dropped a lot of passes, but Lock hurt himself often just as much with his lack of accuracy.
His footwork is inconsistent. He almost never works from under center, and will need a lot of time to practice 3 step and 5 step drops. He's worked from the shotgun for most of his life, going back to high school, and his footwork is often lazy in the pocket. Sometimes he likes to bounce around and he gets happy feet, and other times he does his best Christian Hackenberg impression and becomes a statue. When he steps up and drives the ball, he can throw a beauty, but very often his mechanics get the best of him. He throws it a little 3/4 as well, which might explain some of the swatted passes.
And finally, what will never be explained away is the limitations of the Air Raid offense. Jared Goff has proven to be a very good quarterback in this league with the right pieces despite an Air Raid origin, but he had far better accuracy, decision making, and pocket awareness than Lock at this stage. Lock often knows where he's going with the football ahead of time, leading to some bad throws. In addition, Lock rarely makes a second or third read, and he stares down his targets when throwing. Lock has proven to be a pretty sound decision maker and has started since his freshman year, so his football IQ is likely high, but I don't see him making calls at the line of scrimmage and is usually content to let Dooley call the plays.
NFL Evaluation - Potential, Production, Problems
The jury is still out on whether Lock is the best passer in this class. He is undeniably talented, and has physical tools that rival other first round selections like Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen. His fantastic statistics and athleticism will likely get scouts talking about him as a borderline first round selection, but I smell an impressive combine performance that vaults him firmly into the first round.
That being said, Lock has a lot of work to do before he will be a starter in this league. He has no experience under center and will need a lot of time to get the footwork right given he's operated out of the shotgun since high school. In addition, I have reservations about his ability to progress through his reads and operate an NFL offense, but his improvement over four years is encouraging in that regard. Not to mention, he'd be probably one of the only quarterbacks aside from Josh Rosen and Pat Mahomes selected in the first round from a perennially bad program, and both those guys were way ahead in their development than Lock is at this point.
His physical tools are likely appealing to a lot of teams who are looking for the next Pat Mahomes. The Giants seem like a potential fit given their inability to throw the ball downfield this season and Odell Beckham's dominance in the intermediate level, but GM Dave Gettleman's reluctance to select from a far deeper and more polished pool of quarterbacks last year makes this unlikely. I think Lock is probably a first round selection, but it is unlikely he will be the first name off the board.