NCAA Preseason Preview: Careful what you read
My Preseason Top 25
1. Duke
2. Villanova
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. North Carolina
6. Virginia
7. Wisconsin
8. Oregon
9. Arizona
10. Xavier
11. Purdue
12. Michigan State
13. Gonzaga
14. Connecticut
15. Maryland
16. Indiana
17. Louisville
18. Saint Mary’s
19. Iowa State
20. Rhode Island
21. Notre Dame
22. Cincinnati
23. Davidson
24. Dayton
25. UCLA
My Preseason All-Americans
First Team
PG: Grayson Allen
SG: Josh Hart
F: Jaron Blossomgame
PF: Ivan Rabb
C: Caleb Swanigan
Second Team
PG: Melo Trimble
SG: Jordan Woodard
SF: Dillon Brooks
Wing: E.C. Matthews
C: Przemek Karnowski
Honorable Mention
PG: Monte Morris
SG: Kris Jenkins
SF: Josh Jackson
PF: Nigel Hayes
C: Chris Boucher
Preseason Final Four Picks: Oregon, Villanova, Duke, Kansas
Things to keep in mind: NCAA tournament appearance history, recruiting class, returning leading scoring, the coach and conference play.
Take everything you see from now until the first of the year with a grain of salt. That includes rankings, projections, Naismith Award Finalists and Preseason All-Americans. Everyone has opinions, but we won’t know the real story until conference play starts.
What you will see are people’s opinions based on how they feel the season will play out. Which includes who is due for a breakout season. Teams that are bringing back a lot of experience and obviously since that doesn’t matter a whole lot anymore, recruiting and transfer classes are a big reason for what is presented.
Granted, if you compare the preseason poll from a year ago, only one team in the top 25 didn’t make the NCAA tournament, but there was a good reason for why that team was listed and everyone certainly would’ve had them ranked.
LSU was that team and they had the number one recruit in the Nation. Typically, if a team lands the top guy, they become that much better.
Ben Simmons certainly showed obvious signs on why he was the unanimous number one high school player in 2015 early in the season. The only down fall was the team couldn’t work around him and LSU missed out on a prime opportunity to make a run.
Ben Simmons averaged 19.2 points per game, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists in his one and only season with LSU.
Other than that, everyone made the tournament, but the rankings definitely do justice on how the season turned out. And as for how the tournament will play out, that’s a totally different animal that shouldn’t be discussed until at least Valentine’s Day. Sure, everyone including myself will give our preseason favorites to make it to Phoenix, but we all know those picks aren’t anything, but a possibility based on our opinion.
Recruiting classes are playing more of a role than ever before when it comes to making preseason predictions. I’m a Big Ten guy so let’s talk about Maryland and their number three ranking last preseason and anywhere from 5-14 first place votes, depending on where you look.
Anyone with college basketball knowledge, no matter who you cheer for or side with, knew Melo Trimble was a favorite to land on All-American lists and contend for the Naismith.
They were the toughest team to compete with the clear front runners of the Big Ten in the 2014-15 season, Wisconsin Badgers.
The Terrapins returned a ton of four star recruits that they accumulated for the past couple of seasons and they landed the number two center in the 2015 recruiting class. There was no doubt in anyone’s mind they deserved to be where they were; or even maybe a little higher.
So what happened? Diamond Stone didn’t pan out the way he was projected, ultimately resulting in a draft stock plummet. Melo Trimble forgot how to shoot the basketball for a month. And people found out how tough the Big Ten schedule really is.
Not all was lost though. No they didn’t live up to their number three spot in the polls, but they did finish the regular season with 25-8 record and a conference record of 12-6. The Terps landed a five seed in the Tournament and they wound up in the Sweet. Yes, they did have to go through teams like South Dakota State and Hawaii, but again, March has a mind of its own.
Melo Trimble averaged 20 points in three NCAA Tournament games.
This is what makes college basketball so intriguing. There are so many teams, so many early season tournaments and it’s easy to schedule tough non-conference opponents. It’s also fun to make predictions.
I like to predict the field. I’ll put out a top 25 of my own each week. I’ll watch a ton of college basketball games. I enjoy watching all of these early season tournaments and there’s nothing better than ESPN’s marathon of hoops.
I’m not expecting everyone, if anyone for that matter to agree with me, but I’ll certainly make my case for why I think the way I do; I hope some of it will make sense and if not, let me know. Otherwise sit back and enjoy the next five months of college hoops, ultimately leading up to the best sports has to offer at the end of March and early April.
