Should Raptors Keep Playing Fred Van Vleet Only in the Playoffs? No and Here's Why ...

Should Nick Nurse stick to his strategy of only playing Fred Van Vleet and not Jeremy Lin at all?

Let us examine the evidence.

This comparison chart says it all.

Lin has better points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game. On a per minute ratio, the gap is even bigger. Lin is a much more efficient scorer, rebounder and passer.

My observations are not unique. I am not the only one that has been saying this all along. The numbers lead to obvious conclusions. Even this expert number cruncher agrees that Fred Van Vleet has been doing terribly. Even this vibrant Reddit debate thread would agree with my conclusion.


The only stat where Lin is worse than Van Vleet is turnover per minute. Lin has a higher turnover ratio because he is more aggressive. But being aggressive leads to better plus/minus ratios and ultimately, winning. As coaching genius Mike D'antonio told Jeremy Lin, "I want you to turn over more."


Lin is taller, and Lin has been a better defender than Van Vleet as a Raptor.

Playoff Track Record


Lin's track record in past playoffs is also impressive. His past playoff experience at the Rockets and his playoff experience with the Hornets showed his ability to play well under playoff pressure. We know he is a decent clutch player already. We saw him nail a 3 pointer in the last second to beat Raptors. We saw his outstanding performance as A Hornet in the Hornet vs Heat playoffs in 2016. His performance against John Wall

Clutch

Lin has demonstrated that he is a clutch player. He took Palo Alto High School to win the state championship. He torched the Raptors with a last shot. He scored 38 against trash talker Kobe Bryant in a high pressure televised game. He torched John Wall more than once: as a college player, as a draftee, and as an NBA player.

Another thing that coaches need to know about Lin is that he is not as good in practice as he is in real gams. Even Lin's high school coach said Lin does not practice well.


Conventional is not the same as common sense


Lin is an unconventional player. And in many organizations, coaches are afraid to make an unconventional decision for fear of losing their jobs. This is called institutional imperative (For example, most RFP's award proposals to IBM because the decision makers never lose their jobs by playing it safe with IBM. Taking a risk on a smaller firm can mean the decision makers loses their jobs.)

Conclusion:


The obvious conclusion is that Lin has demonstrated that he deserves to play a some minutes in every playoff game. Raptors fans must support Nick Nurse with stats and allow Nick Nurse to overcome the institutional imperative so that he does the decision dictated by common sensus versus conventional wisdom.

Sources used in this blog:

1. Land Of Basketball

2. Instagram

3. Business Insider

4. Youtube Jeremy Lin versus John Wall

5. Youtube Houston Rockets Jeremy Lin Playoff

6. Youtube Jeremy Lin in Hornets versus Heat Playoff

7. Youtube Jeremy Lin last shot versus Raptors

8. Youtube Jeremy Lin versus Kobe Bryant

9. ESPN


About Michael Onghai, CFA
Michael Onghai, CFA is an entrepreneur and investor. He was a former hedge fund manager and now runs his own quant fund. He loves mathematics, basketball, chess, finding unique solutions for the Rubik's cube, dogs and blackjack. He competed in the Philippine Math Olympiad in 1986. He is currently working on getting his PhD in Pure Mathematics. I can be reached at https://www.twitter.com/mikeonghai or http://www.facebook.com/mikeo