Patriots Draft Picks: A Closer Look at the 2018 Selections

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY SportsTrevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The 2018 NFL Draft proved once again that trying to predict what Bill Belichick is thinking is nearly impossible. After a series of surprising picks and a record number of Draft Day trades, Andrew Johnson tries to make sense of what went down.

1st Round

OT Isaiah Wynn - Georgia (23)

Rumors swirling before the draft indicated that the Patriots were targeting several players with this pick, including Boise St. LB Leighton Vander Esch, Alabama LB Rashaan Evans, and QB Lamark Jackson. In typical Patriots fashion, they drafted none of those players (for various reasons) and instead selected a player few people connected to New England which further emphasized the lack of reliability of these types of yearly pre-draft rumors. There were also post-draft rumors hinting that the Patriots were interested in trading up to as far as pick #2 to target Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, a Josh McDaniels favorite, had Cleveland passed on him. Arkansas C Frank Ragnow was also rumoured to be a trade-up target, but that trade did not come to fruition.

Regardless, Wynn was the pick, and the Patriots, who have no problem trading back in the draft to acquire a larger quantity of picks when displeased with the way the draft unfolds, appear to be happy with it.

The first characteristic that stands out when looking at Wynn’s profile is his height. Under 6’3 is obviously undersized for an OT in today’s NFL. There are numerous instances of players under 6’3 (as if it were a magic number) who have struggled to play tackle and, therefore, are kicked inside at the college level or in the NFL. On the flip side and, theoretically, because of this, the sample size is small for these players and it is difficult to say whether an effective shorter guard who has already been firmly typecast as a guard could be an effective OT. Logan Mankins, an OT at Fresno St., was moved to OG when drafted by the Patriots. Matt Light, on the other hand, had a great career despite being only 6’4.

Despite his stature, Wynn only allowed 5 pressures all season for the National Championship-winning Bulldogs. I won’t pretend to comment on his technique(s) as I am not an OL scout and linemen are fairly difficult to scout to the naked eye of even a dedicated football fan, but NFL scouts seem to agree that he can and should stick at tackle. His arm length is long enough to make up for perceived height deficiencies. OL coach Dante Scarnecchia is no doubt pleased with this pick as he has a lot to work with. Wynn is most likely similarly pleased that he has a coach such as Scarnecchia.

I project Wynn to be the starting left tackle during the upcoming season, although with the way the Patriots are assembling their roster, I wouldn't be surprised to see Wynn see time pushing OG Joe Thuney or flipping to RT if OT Marcus Cannon is flipped to RT. Wynn could also be a long-term solution at RG if Shaq Mason is playing himself out of the Patriots’ price range. This is a good pick and a flexible one in terms of roster construction.

Grade: A-

RB Sony Michel - Georgia (31)

Very few draft analysts predicted the Patriots to pick a RB in the first round. They run a RB-by-committee offense, good RBs can usually be had in the later rounds, they have more significant needs, etc. The predictions made sense.

Once the Patriots made Wynn the pick at #23, many expected the Patriots to use this pick to trade back into the second round. Instead, they picked Michel in spite of the aforementioned reasons. But this pick also makes sense, however unexpected. Some NFL insiders had actually thought the Patriots would pick Rashaad Penny in the first round which would have been even more unexpected, however the Seahawks beat New England to Penny.

Belichick has always been willing to use valuable draft resources to acquire running backs. He shipped off a second round pick for Corey Dillon. A first round pick was used to select Laurence Maroney (ew). Shane Vereen was a second round pick (when, in the same draft, Steven Ridley was selected with a third round pick). Many also forget that Belichick was prepared to draft Steven Jackson in the first round in 2004 before Vince Wilfork fell into their lap.

Michel, right now, is more valuable than all of those backs (notice: I didn’t say “better”). Sure, Michel won’t run for 1600 yards like Dillon did in 2004, but he is cheaper, entering his peak, and under team control for at least five years.

Michel operates with good vision, good cuts, and, more importantly, a good burst of speed out of those cuts. Interestingly, he was under-utilized as a pass-catcher in Georgia’s offense, but when he has the ball in his hands after receiving a screen pass or a check down pass, he is incredibly dangerous. He is not as quick and agile as Dion Lewis, but he is faster and more powerful when running downhill.

Michel is capable of being a lead back in this Patriots offense. In fact, he is likely to lead the Patriots in carries in 2018. Rex Burkhead is a good complementary back (and special teams player) and James White is still the obvious third-down option, but Michel has the physique (5’11, 215 lbs) and talent to carry the ball 15-20 times a game if need be.

Grade: B+

2nd Round

2. CB Duke Dawson - Florida (56)

Before the Jason McCourty trade, the Patriots were expected to draft a CB relatively high in the draft. After the McCourty trade, CB was thought of as a lesser need although not necessarily a strength. With the Dawson pick, the Patriots CB depth chart features: Stephon Gilmore, McCourty, Rowe, Dawson, Jon Jones, and the ghost of Cyrus Jones.

Scouting reports relay that Dawson is best suited to be a slot corner due to his compact strength. He can better press receivers when they are trying to release to disrupt their routes. Dawson is versatile enough to have the capacity to play well in both zone or man coverage. The Patriots rarely, if ever, draft a corner who is weak in run support, and Dawson does not shy away from contact.

Dawson does indeed make the Patriots secondary better and deeper, which is what you’re looking for in a second round selection, however there are reasons to have reservations about this pick.

Despite his strengths, Dawson has difficulty turning his hips to run with receivers and his recovering speed is limited as well. He is described as an average athlete with good instincts. This seems to buck the recent trend which suggested the Patriots were interested in uberly athletic cornerbacks with length (Gilmore, Rowe). Slot cornerbacks do not have to be overly athletic or lengthy, which is why Dawson is a good fit in the slot, but it does mean that Dawson may be limited in his role.

Slot corners are starting CBs, so there is no reason to say that Dawson’s ceiling is a role player. His ceiling will be dictated by how well he mirrors receivers. He often resorts to penalty-resulting contact to try to break up passes due to the hip-turning problem, which will be an issue no matter where he is positioned on the field. Many CBs have these weaknesses, so Dawson is not uniquely flawed, however he may ultimately be no better than a good slot corner even at his peak.

Grade: B

5th Round

5. LB Ja’Whuan Bentley - Purdue (143)

As I mentioned when covering the first round, the LB position was deemed a need for the Patriots. With Dont’a Hightower returning from yet another injury, Shea McClellin’s release from the team, and Elandon Roberts’ inability to cover in space, Kyle Van Noy is the only consistently reliable starter at the position.

The Patriots rarely wait this long between picks, but almost 100 picks after Dawson, the Patriots finally selected a linebacker to try to stabilize the position.

Bentley is a Purdue product who is built thickly at 6’2, 260 lbs. He is a thumper who is slow and borderline-incompetent in tracking his coverage assignments. He is exactly who the Patriots don’t need, and he may be redundant when considering Roberts’ skillset.

On the other hand, he caused a ton of fumbles at Purdue and leverages his weight to hit hard and fast. Apparently, Rosevelt Colvin (full disclosure: a Purdue grad) loves him as a prospect and sang his praises after he was selected.

It was and is an odd pick that doesn’t seem to fit as a puzzle piece to the larger defensive scheme at the moment. If Bentley were an undrafted free agent rookie, it would be tough to see how he makes the roster. With that said, 5th round picks rarely get released or passed through waivers during their rookie year, so Roberts’ spot is most likely in danger.

Grade: D

6th Round

LB Christian Sam - Arizona St. (178)

Sam was seen as a Patriots fit from the beginning of the draft but especially at the beginning of day 3 of the draft. It was a mild upset that he wasn’t picked with the Bentley pick, especially since they decided on a LB, but the Patriots instead chose to wait and select Sam in the sixth round.

Sam is profiled as a well-rounded linebacker without a lot of highlight-worthy tape. He seems to be a jack-of-all-trades, which is what players tend to be on day 3. The good news is that by being a jack of all trades, he can at least maneuver in space and occasionally hold his own when covering RBs and the infrequent TE on passing plays.

Sam will likely make the roster, even if only to play special teams, although the 6th and 7th rounds are reserved for players who will be on the bubble during camp and the preseason. He will likely also see the field this season on defense given the fragile state of the LB corps.

Grade: C

WR Braxton Berrios - Miami (FL) (210)

He is a short, white WR who runs good routes. Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon that compares him to Welker, Edelman, and Amendola. It’s cliche, lazy, and, well…

It’s reasonable. He fits the perfect slot WR mold that the Patriots have essentially invented and nearly perfected over the last decade. There is a lot of hype surrounding players like Berrios, especially during UDFA signing season (Austin Carr and T.J. Moe come to mind), but Berrios is as likely as anyone to validate the hype and step in as a possible replacement for Amendola over time. Perhaps not right away, but 6th round picks rarely develop that instantaneously.

Draft analysts like to overplay how much the Patriots target players like Berrios, but there is some truth to the idea that these types of players are a kind of “market inefficiency” and underestimated due to their size and lack of apparent straight-line speed.

For what it’s worth, Belichick’s friend and confidant Michael Lombardi, who is usually quite accurate with Patriots-related analysis, loves the pick.

Grade: A

7th Round

QB Danny Etling - LSU (219)

Without belaboring the point, the Patriots were linked to many of the top quarterbacks. Here, the Patriots finally make their selection five or six rounds later than expected.

Unfortunately, Etling is not the quarterback of the future. His arm strength is suspect, although he tends to make good decisions. His TD/INT ratio is very good, especially against the level of competition LSU faces year after year. (There is also some ugly game tape against Florida where he delivers two ugly throws into the waiting hands of new teammate Duke Dawson - both are dropped.) NFL scouts think his absolute ceiling is...Brian Hoyer.

All signs point to him competing against Hoyer for the backup QB position, but he is also a strong practice squad candidate. He’ll be given a chance to prove his worth. Ultimately, the PS is where he may end up during his rookie season. It’s the Zac Robinson career path. Any quality playing time would be considered a win with this pick.

Grade: C+

CB Keion Crossen - West. Carolina (243)

It is at this point in the draft that teams are generally using their picks to ensure that they guarantee signing players who would otherwise be UDFA on an open market. The Patriots must have liked Crossen’s tape enough to use a pick on him here.

Crossen is a quick athlete who is slated for special teams. It’s not out of the question that he can get playing time at CB (If Johnson Bademosi can, why not Crossen?), but this pick was specifically used with special teams in mind.

Truthfully, it’s hard to even quantify the quality of a draft pick at this stage in the draft unless there is a noteworthy gamble on a falling player, which is why the last two picks are receiving the standard “C” grade.

Grade: C

TE Ryan Izzo - Florida St. (250)

A 6’5, 260 lbs. blocking TE, Izzo is a warm body for camp. He’s not particularly fast, but he is strong. Blocking TEs tend to be fairly common, and Izzo doesn’t appear to have a unique skill set that sets him apart from the others.

Unless the Patriots want to save some last minute cash by releasing/trading Dwayne Allen, Izzo is probably not going to challenge for a spot. He has to compete against newly signed Troy Niklas, Jacob Hollister, and Will Tye. It may come down to special teams value, so Izzo has to prove he is better than those three other players if he wants to avoid the practice squad. He may receive a chance at more playing time with another team.

Grade: C

Written by: Andrew Johnson