Red Sox vs. Indians - 2016 ALDS Preview
Now that the Wild Card games are out of the way, The MLB Postseason really gets underway tonight. The Red Sox will take on the Indians. A battle of current and former Sox managers. This figures to be a good series, so lets take a look at the matchups a little closer and see who has the edge in this series.
Catcher - So we have Sandy Leon for The Red Sox, and Roberto Perez for the Indians. Leon, in 2016, hit .310 with 7 HR's and 51 RBI's. Perez, hit .183 with 3 HR's and 17 RBI's. This looks like a mismatch. However, Leon only hit .213 over the final month of the season. But if we're going with what each player can potentially give you, then you have to go with Leon. EDGE: Boston
1st Base - Hanley Ramirez (.286 30 HR's 111 RBI's) came into this season as the guy that everyone was worried about. He was playing a new position and had struggled defensively last season. But by the time the All-Star break rolled around, those fears were put to rest. Hanley was locked in offensively and defensively he was not the liability many thought he would be, in fact he has been very good at 1st. The Indians have former Sox player Mike Napoli (.239 34 HR's 101 RBI's) and as we all know here, Napoli is a great defensive first baseman. Napoli definitely has a huge edge defensively. But he's hit or miss at the plate. He strikes out a ton, and has a poor average. Hanley gives you adequate defense and a legitimate threat in the lineup. EDGE: Boston
2nd Base - Many thought Dustin Pedroia was on the downside of his career, washed up. It couldn't be further from the truth. Pedroia had his best season since his 2008 MVP campaign, (.318 15 HR's 78 RBI), and played his usual stellar defense. On the other side, Cleveland has a formidable foe for Pedroia. Jason Kipnis (.275 23 HR's and 82 RBI's). Pedroia's leadership, defense, and playoff experience give the edge here to Boston. EDGE: Boston
Shortstop - Boston's Xander Bogaerts is a rising star in the league. Coming off a great season, (.294 21 HR's 89 RBI's), but many Sox fans thought it should have been better. Fans think he is capable of hitting .330 easily, so the average this season is not quite as good as he could be. Cleveland also has a rising star at SS. Francisco Lindor (.301 15 HR's 78 RBI's) had a great season at the plate to go along with stellar defense and 19 steals. EDGE: Cleveland
3rd Base - It's beginning to look more and more like it will be Brock Holt starting at 3rd base for the Red Sox. Holt (.255 7 HR's 55 RBI's) is much better coming off the bench than he is as an every day player. He's an average defensive third baseman, and an average hitter. Jose Ramirez had a great season, (.312 11 HR's 76 RBI's) and also stole 22 bases. This is a mismatch on paper. EDGE: Cleveland
Outfield - This category is not even fair. The Sox outfield trio of Andrew Benintendi (.295 2 HR's 14 RBI's), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.267 26 HR's 87 RBI's) and Mookie Betts (.318 31 HR's 118 RBI's) is tough to beat. Betts had a breakout year, and is sure to be the AL MVP frontrunner and he's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. The only person who could get Betts moved to RF is Jackie Bradley. Bradley could be the best defensive CF in the American League, maybe in all of baseball. He's also no slouch at the plate either. Benintendi was called up at the trading deadline and became a fan favorite. A knee injury slowed his roll a bit, but he's back now and makes a nice 3rd man in an already powerful outfield. Cleveland's outfield will consist of Rajai Davis (.249, 12 HR, 48 RBI), Tyler Naquin (.296, 14 HR, 43 RBI) and Lonnie Chisenhall (.286, 8 HR, 57 RBI). All decent outfielders in their own right, but no comparison to the Red Sox starting 3. This category is not even close. EDGE: Boston
Starting Pitching - The Indians rotation is messed up because of injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. So they'll throw out Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA) in Game 1 against probably Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA). Game 2 will see Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA) up against David Price (17-9, 3.99 ERA). Game 3 will have Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) going against Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA). The Sox will also be throwing Eduardo Rodriguez (3-7, 4.71 ERA) who pitched very well down the stretch with a 2.99 ERA in September. Cleveland is expected to go back to Bauer in game 4. These matchups are intriguing. If the Indians can squeak out a win in a very tough Game 1, and have Kluber going in game 2, they could be in the drivers seat. With the injuries to the rotation though, you have to give Boston the nod here. EDGE: Boston
DH - Do we really even need to do this category? We all know David Ortiz (.315, 38 HR, 127 RBI) and his history in October. It's unparalleled. Cleveland is no slouch at DH with Carlos Santana (.259, 34 HR, 87 RBI). But this is Ortiz's final season. Just what the rest of the league needed, extra incentive for Big Papi. Given Ortiz's ability to hit in the clutch and to perform in October this one is a no-brainer. EDGE: Boston
Bullpen - This one is really not that close. The Indians bullpen was so much more reliable over the course of the season than the Sox pen was. The Sox bullpen consists of Craig Kimbrel (2-6, 3.40 ERA, 31 saves), Koji Uehara (2-3, 3.45 ERA), Joe Kelly (4-0, 5.18 ERA), Drew Pomeranz (11-12, 3.32 ERA), Robbie Ross Jr. (3-2, 3.25 ERA), Matt Barnes (4-3, 4.05 ERA), and Brad Ziegler (2-4, 1.52 ERA). On the Indians side we have Cody Allen (3-5, 2.51 ERA, 32 saves), Andrew Miller (10-1, 1.45 ERA, 12 saves), Bryan Shaw (2-5, 3.24 ERA), Dan Otero (5-1, 1.53 ERA), Mike Clevinger (3-3, 5.26 ERA), Cody Anderson (2-5, 6.68 ERA), Zach McAllister (3-2, 3.44 ERA), and Jeff Manship (2-1, 3.12 ERA). If the Indians can have a lead heading into the 7th inning, it will be very hard for the Sox to come back against this pen. Andrew Miller is a great weapon to have. He can shut a team down. One of the best relievers in the game. As far as closers go, Craig Kimbrel struggled to find the plate down the stretch. He has a tendency to be wild. Something you do not want in a close game. 1-2-3 innings were not easy to come by for Kimbrel this year. You really don't want your closer to be putting men on base in a 1 or 2 run game. If this series comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Sox are in trouble. EDGE: Cleveland
Bench - The Sox bench consists of C Christian Vazquez (.227, 1 HR, 12 RBI), OF Chris Young (.276, 9 HR, 24 RBI), IF Travis Shaw (.242, 16 HR, 71 RBI), IF Aaron Hill (.262, 10 HR, 38 RBI), and IF Marco Hernandez (.294, 1 HR, 5 RBI). Young is your best hitter coming off the bench and you'll probably see him hitting quite a bit in the series, most likely against a tough lefty, but don't overlook Travis Shaw. He got off to a hot start, winning the 3B job out of string training and struggled in the 2nd half. But he has some pop and could give you some important at-bats in this series. Cleveland has C Chris Gimenez (.216, 4 HR, 11 RBI), C/PH Yan Gomes (.167, 9 HR, 34 RBI), OF Coco Crisp (.231, 13 HR, 55 RBI), OF Brandon Guyer (.266, 9 HR, 32 RBI), IF Michael Martinez (.238, 1 HR, 4 RBI) The addition of Yan Gomes back into the team after he returned from injury will help and Coco is always a great defensive replacement. But the edge here goes to the Sox. EDGE: Boston
Manager - John Farrell's strength in making his players feel comfortable and keeping a smooth running clubhouse. Managing a game is his weakness. Over the course of 162 games, this will cost you anywhere from 5-6 games, maybe a little more. But in the postseason, this can become magnified. One thing I will say for Farrell though, is that every time the Sox had their backs against the wall this year, they won. They pulled themselves out of holes and prevented any long losing streaks. You have to give Farrell some credit there. As I said though, in-game decisions are his weakness. Remember that this is the guy who let relief pitcher Brandon Workman bat in the 7th inning of tie World Series game. No lie. Across the field is Terry Francona. His record speaks for itself. He led the Red Sox to 2 World Series championships in his tenure with Boston. He also had them one win away from the World Series again in 2008. Not only was he at the helm when the Sox came back from a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees in '04, but he was also there when the Sox came back down 3-1 in the ALCS against Cleveland in '07. Francona is great under pressure. If any manager can have his team ready for a tough series with the odds against them, it's him. Francona by a mile. EDGE: Cleveland
As I said before, Game 1 is huge. If the Indians can somehow pull out a win tonight, then the whole series changes. But if Porcello pitches well and shuts them down, the Sox could very well sweep this series. Offensively the Sox blow the Indians away, scoring more than 100 runs than them this season (878-777). But Cleveland is one of the best home teams in baseball (53-28). So the first 2 games will be tough for Boston. The Red Sox are almost as good on the road as they are at home (46-35 on the road, 47-34 at home). Both teams hit better at home, but for the Indians its even more dramatic. Cleveland has outscored opponents at home by 105 runs (452-347), but on the road they have been outscored (329-325). The Red Sox on the other hand outscore opponents at home (477-380) and on the road (401-314). So its obvious that the Sox can hit anywhere.
Prediction: Boston in 4
The ALDS between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians gets underway tonight. First pitch is 8:08 at Progressive Field and can be watched on TBS.
