Bracketology 2017: Week 1

With less than one month until the beginning of conference tournament play, it is time to launch March Madness Bracketology. 351 D-1 college basketball teams started the season with hopes of qualifying for the Big Dance, but only 68 will make the final cut when it is all said and done.

In honor of the College Football Eliminator blog I ran from August through December of last year, I will now eliminate all the teams I can safely eliminate from tournament qualification so far: Hawaii, Dartmouth, and Penn. Huh? The 9-11 Rainbow Warriors are only eliminated due to their postseason ban placed in 2015 by the NCAA after an investigation of the team found numerous violations of ethics rules. Dartmouth and Penn are a combined 0-7 in conference play so far and the brand-new Ivy League Tournament will only take the top four teams in the eight-team conference, so these two Ivy teams along with two others, will sit this postseason out.

That leaves us with a whopping 348 D-1 college basketball teams left in the running for the Big Dance. It is impossible to count any one team out: the Holy Cross Crusaders managed to finish the season 10-19 and on a six-game losing streak in Patriot League play, but managed to string together four straight wins to steal the Patriot League Championship and an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. That could be anyone this year; everyone must be accounted for.

See which 22 mid-major teams that are favorites to win their respective conference tournaments (four #12-15 seeds, plus six #16 seeds). Then, check out which 32 teams have already secured at-large bids based on their tournament resumés (four #1-8 seeds) before observing the many teams fighting during this last month of conference play for the remaining 14 spots (four #9-10 seeds, plus six #11 seeds). The last eight teams in the article will be the first eight heading to the NIT in March. Also, read this week's tournament team features: Monmouth, Cincinnati, Purdue, Arizona, South Carolina, and Marquette.

Records are up to date as of Tuesday, January 31st, at 1 PM ET.

22 Mid-Major Conference Champions

America East - Vermont (18-5, 8-0), Atlantic Sun - FGCU (17-6, 6-1)

Big Sky - Weber State (12-7, 7-1), Big South - Winthrop (16-5, 8-2)

Big West - UC Davis (13-8, 5-1), Colonial Athletic - UNC Wilm. (20-3, 9-1)

C-USA - Middle Tennessee (19-3, 9-0), Horizon League - Valpo (18-4, 8-1)

Ivy League - Princeton (10-6, 3-0), MAAC - Monmouth (17-5, 9-2)

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Remember the team that made headlines last year for their creative bench celebrations? It's fair to say this year's squad is not nearly as good as last year's. Although they owned wins over Notre Dame and Georgetown, that exciting group was not able to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Losing to Iona in the MAAC Tournament Championship Game, they fell into the NCAA's First Four Out on Selection Sunday, which sent them to the NIT as a #1 seed. This year's team has managed to hold a solid lead in the MAAC standings, putting them in prime position to take another stab at the NCAA Tournament. No room for error though, they won't be considered for an at-large spot due to the fact that they fell hard to two of the three big-name schools they played this season (28-point loss to North Carolina and a 19-point loss to Syracuse, and a one-point OT loss to South Carolina, all on the road).

Mid-American - Akron (18-3, 8-0), Mid-Eastern - NC Central (15-6, 6-1)

Mountain West - Nevada (18-4, 7-2), Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (14-9, 7-3)

Ohio Valley - Belmont (16-4, 10-0), Patriot League - Bucknell (17-6, 9-1)

Southern - East Tenn. St. (17-5, 7-2), Southland - Sam Hou. St. (16-6, 7-2)

SWAC - Texas Southern (12-10, 8-1), Summit League - IPFW (16-7, 5-4)

Sun Belt - UT-Arlington (16-6, 6-3), WAC - New Mexico State (20-2, 7-0)

32 At-Large Bid Locks (>75% Chance)

American - #14 Cincinnati (19-2, 8-0), SMU (18-4, 8-1)

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Mick Cronin and the Bearcats just came off a 94-52 win at home Sunday night over South Florida and they haven't shown any sign of slowing down. They certainly look like a team deserving to play in the Big East or the ACC rather than the lowly American Athletic Conference, which will only send two or three teams to the Big Dance this year. Cincy's only losses have come against Rhode Island at home by five, and to Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse by ten, both ranked. No blemishes on the record other than those two. They also boasts two wins over ranked opponents: a one-point overtime victory over Iowa State in Ames and an eight-point home win over Xavier last week, in which Bearcats' star guard Jacob Evans III dropped 21 points and grabbed seven boards.

Atlantic 10 - VCU (16-5, 6-2), Dayton (15-5, 6-2)

ACC - #6 Louisville (18-4, 6-3), #9 Virginia (16-4, 6-2), #12 UNC (19-4, 7-2),

#15 FSU (18-4, 6-3), #20 Notre Dame (17-6, 6-4), #21 Duke (17-5, 5-4)

Big 12 - #2 Baylor (20-1, 7-1) #3 Kansas (19-2, 7-1), #7 WVU (17-4, 5-3)

Big East - #4 Villanova (20-2, 7-2), #16 Butler (18-4, 7-3),

#22 Creighton (19-3, 6-3), Xavier (15-6, 5-3)

Big Ten - #10 Wisconsin (18-3, 7-1), #17 Maryland (19-2, 7-1),

#23 Purdue (17-5, 6-3), #25 Northwestern (18-4, 7-2)

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Head coach Matt Painter made his agenda known earlier this season: College basketball needs six fouls per player instead of five. He's not wrong; flopping is a huge issue and officials are slowing down the game more and more as the NCAA works to speed it up, but I digress. Where was I? Oh right, Purdue. The Boilermakers have had their ups and downs this year. Despite dropping contests at Iowa and Nebraska recently, their 11-1 streak with a win over rival Notre Dame earlier this season proves that they could definitely string together some good wins and go far into the tournament. My bet is that sophomore Caleb Swanigan (pictured above) will lead this team into the Elite Eight, depending on where the Boilermakers fall in seeding. The 6'9 forward is averaging a 19-13 double-double this season. They face a surging Northwestern squad tomorrow night as they look for win number seven in conference play.

Missouri Valley - Wichita State (19-4, 9-1), Illinois State (18-4, 10-0)

Pacific-12 - #5 Arizona (20-2, 9-0), #11 UCLA (19-3, 6-3),

#13 Oregon (19-3, 8-1), Southern Cal (18-4, 5-4)

SEC - #8 Kentucky (17-4, 7-1), #19 South Carolina (17-4, 7-1), #24 Florida (16-5, 6-2)

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

South Carolina is really good, and they will be rewarded for their 7-1 conference record when March rolls around, but I just can not see this team beating anyone of top 10-caliber. Don't get me wrong; Florida, Syracuse, and Michigan are solid wins and this team deserves at least a #5 seed, probably higher. They did show great poise in handling Missouri on the road by ten Saturday night, but Missouri is not exactly basketball country. You may see the Gamecocks in the Sweet Sixteen this year, but I doubt they move any further than that.

West Coast - #1 Gonzaga (22-0, 10-0), #18 Saint Mary's (19-2, 9-1)

14/22 At-Large Bubble Teams (20-74% Chance)

Last 14 In - Alabama (13-7, 6-2), Arkansas (16-5, 5-3), California (15-6, 6-3),

Iowa St. (13-7, 5-3), Kansas St. (15-6, 4-4), Marquette (14-7, 5-4),

Miami (14-6, 4-4), Michigan (14-8, 4-5), Michigan State (13-9, 5-4),

Minnesota (15-7, 3-6), Rhode Island (13-7, 5-3), Tennessee (12-9, 4-4),

Utah (15-6, 6-3), Virginia Tech (16-5, 5-4)

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Marquette is here for their back-to-back upsets over Creighton and Villanova--and not much else. All seven of their losses come to top-100 teams but they can not really be rewarded for that, considering the many other teams that boast similar tournament resumés that are consistently beating top-100 teams. Dropping their first-ever game at home to Providence Saturday night certainly did not help their case.

First Four Out - Clemson (12-8, 2-6), Georgetown (12-10, 3-6), Houston (15-7, 6-4), Indiana (14-8, 4-5)

Next Four Out - Boise State (13-7, 6-3), Oklahoma State (14-8, 3-6), Seton Hall (13-7, 3-5), Wake Forest (12-9, 3-6)

Check back in next week for 'Bracketology 2017: Week 2' to see if your team will be in on Selection Sunday!