If The Aggies Win, They Will Be In
Do not let Aggie fans fool you (my self included). Nobody could have predicted that Texas A&M would have been a college football playoff dark horse, much less in the committee's initial top 4. I literally had to pinch myself when I saw where the Aggies were ranked earlier this week. All of the college football experts had them anywhere from 6th to 8th and nobody even considered they would jump an undefeated Washington Huskies team. But they did and now Aggie fans everywhere sit in the stressful yet enviable spot of knowing all they have to do is win out and they should officially be in the college football playoff.
Not so fast, say some of you Huskies or Buckeyes alumni. You still believe that a conference championship has always weighed heavily in the committee's mind and without one Texas A&M will need some help to hold on to their 4th spot in the rankings. My response to that is simple. The committee wants to rank teams based on who you play, who you beat and who you lose to. In reality, none of those three categories on their own are more heavily viewed over another. Yes a conference championship is an easy way to identify one of the best teams in the country, but what about the body of work as a whole? The Aggies' body of work is clearly better than that of Louisville, Ohio State and Washington.
ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) is a ratings system that basically takes everything about a team's season and combines it together to get a more accurate ranking of how good teams really are. According to this metric, Texas A&M has 3 wins against top-30 FPI ranked teams this season. Compare that to only 1 for Louisville, 2 for Ohio State and 1 for Washington. Not only that, two of the Aggies' final four games this season are against top-15 ranked FPI squads in Ole Miss (14) and LSU (8). If Texas A&M holds serve and wins out, it will have 5 wins against top-30 FPI schools, more than any of the other playoff bubble teams.
Of course the conference championship route is not out of the picture either. In a highly unlikely, but history says it could happen scenario, LSU has a shot to upset Alabama on Saturday. If that happens and the Aggies win, they would be tied with the Crimson Tide for the SEC West top spot, with Alabama obviously holding the head to head tie breaker. Fast forward to the last week of the season when Auburn visits Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Should the Tigers beat an undefeated or 1-loss Alabama team, either result would instantly add even more juice to A&M's already impressive resume (A&M beat Auburn on the road earlier this year.) Aggie fans have a reason to be overly optimistic with their final three games all at home. Kyle field will always be a loud place to play for opposing teams, but it might become deafening should their be a college playoff birth on the line when LSU comes calling on Thanksgiving night.
