Can Craig Bohl ever bring Wyoming to the College Football Playoff?
The 2016 college football season has finally come to an end, and Dabo Swinney and his Clemson Tigers are finally bringing back the golden trophy back to the hills of western South Carolina after knocking out the kings of college football, Alabama. Clemson, after several years of slugging it out with the best of them and finally reaching the top, stands among the ranks of college football's elite. The Power 5 only continues to get stronger, especially with recent surges outside the SEC. So, what about the Group of 5? Could a team like Wyoming ever break into the top four and shock the world?
Wyoming's chances, or any Group of 5 team for that matter, are extremely low of ever making the college football playoff. The Cowboys play in a cold, windy state that few outside of the intermountain west are familiar with, and less people live there than any other state. But what factors influence the divide between the Group of 5 and Power 5, and what would a team like Wyoming have to accomplish to ever be a playoff contender? The X-factor for the Cowboys in this far-fetched scenario may be Craig Bohl.
The Wyoming Cowboys displayed a feverish turnaround in 2016. After going 4-8 and 2-10 in his first two seasons, respectively, Craig Bohl's players finally bought in, matured, and developed to reign in 8 wins and a Mountain West Mountain division title. Several of their wins came in gritty fashion. Brian Hill finished as the 4th best rusher in the nation and Josh Allen provided a key spark on offense with his playmaking ability. With wins over ranked opponents for the first time since 2002 (Wyoming defeated then #13 Boise State at home followed up by #24 San Diego State three weeks later), a division title, and noticeable accolades in Mountain West awards, Wyoming surely has a lot to look forward to.
But, let's think, for a moment... how high could the Cowboys, who have only been to three bowl games the past decade and lost two of them, go up the college football food chain?
Craig Bohl's 11 seasons at North Dakota State in the FCS produced three consecutive national championships at the end of his tenure and set up the Bison to win two more once he departed. He retained a majority of his staff and the effects of his player development, pro-style offense and hard-nosed defense have finally become apparent. Wyoming still has holes to fill, but with the right players and continued support from the state and University of Wyoming, the program has nowhere to go but up. It even could have been a 12-win season versus 8 had they not lost four games by three points each (though they had a few close wins as well).
But how far can it go? The college football playoff widened the field of potential national championship participants by inviting four teams to a semifinal to play each other to determine the championship match beginning in the 2014 season. Ohio State turned some heads by coming in as a 4 seed, who had lost badly to middle-of-the-road Viriginia Teach in September, beating then #1 Alabama, and demoralizing Oregon in the title game. However, Ohio State had the benefit of playing in a Power 5 (formerly known as BCS-auto qualifying) league. Alabama, who won the following year, had an early-season loss to Ole Miss. Clemson, the 2017 national champion, lost to unranked Pittsburgh fairly late in the season before solidifying its run to the playoff. The establishment of a committee to select the four participants was intended as a way to open up the playing field and better determine the true best team, which appeased fans.
The establishment of the Power 5 and Group of 5 conferences, however, has further limited the ability of a Group of 5 team (like Wyoming) to enter this field and solidified the growing boundary between Power 5 and Group of 5 teams. Houston of the Athletic American Conference has come as close as any Group of 5 team to cracking the top four, reaching as high as #6 in the polls this year. But ugly losses to Navy and SMU inhibited them from reaching any higher, so there is no telling if they would have been able to displace Washington or Ohio State in the top 4 had they won every game. The playoff committee has used strength of schedule as one of its primary indicators of whether or not a team will make the field as was demonstrated in their initial 2016 ranking when Texas A&M was featured at #4 despite an ugly loss to Alabama, while then undefeated Washington sat out at #5.
Group of 5 teams are at an automatic disadvantage when it comes to perception. A team like Boise State, or Wyoming for that matter, could run the table and end the season 13-0. However, the committee will take notice that 8 (or 9, counting a conference title game) were played against Group of 5 teams, regardless of victory margins or records of those teams beaten. Western Michigan is a good 2016 example of this. Before losing to Wisconsin in a respectable effort in the Cotton Bowl, WMU had gone 13-0 including two wins over Big 10 teams (Illinois and Northwestern). However, playing the likes of Buffalo or Akron weekly during conference play did not bode well for their playoff prospects, and the committee ranked them no higher than 13th. The consolation was an appearance in a New Year's Six Bowl (the modern version of a BCS bowl), which is guaranteed to the highest-ranking Group of 5 champion.
Group of 5 teams, especially those from the western US, have demonstrated decent success in New Year's Six games the past decade. Boise State has managed to win Fiesta Bowls in 2007, 2010, and 2014; TCU won the 2011 Rose Bowl while a member of the Mountain West; and Utah captured a 2004 Fiesta Bowl and 2009 Sugar Bowl while also a MWC member. These successes have stirred up a lingering, burning question to college football fans, especially those of teams who belong to Group of 5 conferences--can a Group of 5 team ever prove themselves enough to play for the national title?
Which brings us back to the initial question--can Craig Bohl ever bring Wyoming to the playoff?
The answer lies not in whether a Group of 5 team can ever be good enough to make the playoff--Utah during its peak seasons in 2004 and possibly in 2008 or Boise State in 2006 and possibly 2009 were probably talented enough to compete for a national championship--but whether or not they can garner the exposure and perception necessary to climb the rankings. The Group of 5 is at several disadvantages, whether it be financially or based on biases and tradition. Powerhouse programs with widespread name recognition, such as Alabama, Oklahoma, or USC, have long-standing traditions of success and are hard for even the most objective of selectors to ignore. Those three programs alone claim 34 total national championships. Compare that to the entire Group of 5, which consists of more than 50 teams, which claims 0 consensus national championships. BYU, an independent team and former MWC member, is the only team outside of the Power 5 not named Notre Dame to have a national championship (1984). Compare venues: by far the SEC's smallest on-campus football venue, Vanderbilt, holds 40,350; only three venues (one of which is Qualcomm Stadium, which San Diego State shares with the San Diego Chargers) exceed that number in the Mountain West, and group of 5 attendances are substantially lower overall than their upper-tier counterparts. Power 5 schools were the beneficiary of nearly $4 billion more in revue in 2015 compared to the Group of 5 (individual schools in the Power 5 can bring in more from one team in their conference winning a New Year's Six bowl than a Group of 5 team brings in winning their own bowl game) While many have cited that the FCS and FBS are experiencing a decreasing divide, the split between the Group of 5 and Power 5 is becoming wider.
Wyoming is especially at a disadvantage when it comes to finances and perception. Near the bottom of the mountain in conference spending, the program has relied heavily on state funds and donors to upgrade its facilities. While attendance is improving under Bohl, the remoteness of the state and harsh winter weather can make filling the scenic but comparatively small 30,000-seat stadium a challenge. Securing only one bowl win since 2004 in the 2009 New Mexico Bowl does not help either, though Wyoming prides itself on a tough, loyal fan base that coincides with Bohl's mantra of "Cowboy Tough." Marketing campaigns launched by the university have helped Wyoming stay within the NCAA-required 20,000-per game attendance figures to retain FBS status, but the demographics of the region itself pose challenging--the entire state of Wyoming, spread out over 97,000 square miles, comprises a population smaller than that of Denver city proper just 100 miles to the south of Cheyenne, Wyo. The program has few monetary resources or populous to support and build a playoff-caliber program while already suffering the limitations of a Group of 5 conference, when the elite of the Power 5 has much more intensive resources to pour into programs. By the very nature of these limitations, recruiting is also a major challenge for programs like Wyoming and must rely on diamonds in the rough and blue chip players. To be successful, it also must find ways to ease the pains of players declaring for the NFL draft, such as Brett Smith's declaration at the conclusion of the 2013 season which hurt the team's passing and scoring numbers greatly in Bohl's first season. Brian Hill's departure at the end of this season may also slow down the offense's ability to maintain time of possession and convert first downs; his addition to the team at running back was a huge key to the Cowboy's success this season. If Josh Allen declares, the Cowboys will have another hole to fill on offense. Although players declaring for the draft in this day and age is more and more commonplace, Wyoming will have to establish more depth at key positions to remain competitive. This is easier said than done with its recruiting challenges, but Bohl was skilled at reloading at NDSU.
That is not to say that Wyoming is incapable of ever achieving national success; its 1967 team reached as high in the #6 in the polls and nearly knocked off LSU in the Sugar Bowl to go undefeated. Previous 10-win seasons in the 1990s and the sudden resurgence the program experienced in 2016, defeating two ranked teams and winning its division, cannot go unnoticed. The Mountain West has also been among the most successful Group of 5 conferences. In the late 2000's, it was on the precipice of receiving AQ status (the BCS era version of Power 5 status) before perennial conference powerhouses BYU, Utah, and eventually TCU left the conference. The conference, formed in 1999, has taken a hit to its status upon losing those programs, though. Once more regarded for the high level of its competition, it has become the WAC 2.0 and Boise State and San Diego State are the lone wolves in national acclaims the conference receives. Boise State is also a weakened version of itself with the departure of coach Chris Petersen to Washington, and SDSU has proven yet again it cannot keep winning as a ranked team (by losing both of its games this year while ranked, first to South Alabama, then to Wyoming).
These factors pose limitations for Wyoming's shot at ever making the playoff. Craigh Bohl is a proven winner and produced a high-caliber program in Fargo and there is little doubt that with the right tools and strategy he can build a solid winner out of Wyoming but winning all he wants is not going to be enough for Wyoming to rise above dozens of hungry Power 5 teams to sneak into the top four. For Wyoming or any Mountain West team to have a shot at making the playoff, it is imperative that the conference is strong as it can possibly be. The Mountain Division has proven itself to be the stronger of the two divisions since the conference split into divisions in 2013, and even produced four 10-win teams in 2014, but must improve from top to bottom. Wyoming would most certainly have to take advantage of a season where everyone else is playing well, too. Wyoming must also schedule and convincingly defeat Power 5 competition. The program hasn't had much of a shortage of strong out-of-conference games on the calendar, including dates with Texas, Nebraska, Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington State in the past seven years, but it must take advantage of those games by finding ways to win. They are often the only chance that a Group of 5 team has to prove their worth. Had Houston not beaten Florida State in the Peach Bowl and convincingly beaten Oklahoma convincingly to start the 2016 season, it is highly unlikely they would have ever made it as high as they did before losing to Navy. Wyoming would also have to pass the unavoidable "eye test," meaning that one "bad" win could derail any chances.
Wyoming would also have to rely on a weakened Power 5 field, which seems unlikely since college football's elite are on an upward trajectory of talent and exposure. It is essentially impossible for a Group of 5 team to pass a Power 5 team in the college football playoff rankings, regardless of being undefeated, unless the Power 5 team they pass has two or three losses. It is very unlikely the committee would pass up a one-loss Power 5 team to put in an undefeated Wyoming team, so at least two Power 5 conferences would need to produce champions with at least two losses (and also not have a one-loss team that failed to win its division, such as 11-1 Ohio State who made the playoff as a #3 seed in 2016). The Big 12, with the amount of parity its experienced and inability to produce an undefeated team in the regular season since 2009, would be the best candidate to produce no better than a two-loss team. It is seemingly less likely for one of the other Power 5 conferences to do so with how top heavy they have become, and the strength of schedule precedent may be hard to overcome. Wyoming's only slim chance otherwise would be a head-to-head win over one of the top four teams.
Finally, it is imperative that Wyoming can stabilize itself and continue investing into the program. Despite its limited resources, the University of Wyoming is the beneficiary of being the only university in its states, thus eliminating the limitations of other rural mountain states such as Montana, where in-state schools must compete for funds and recruiting. Craig Bohl was a great hire and while success did not come immediately, a solid foundation has been set for Wyoming to compete for conference championships and potentially a New Year's Six Bowl someday. However, the program needs to establish some consistency and stability. It has been a revolving door of coaches losses and eventual firings piled up since joining the Mountain West in 1999. It is important to remember that as compelling as the 2016 season was, the low points the program reached often followed more successful ones (for instance, the 8-5 campaign in 2011 was followed by a 4-8 season including a first-ever loss to an FCS team). Bohl must continue to recruit and develop players and cannot waiver from what brought success in 2016. A 2017 hangover would slow the momentum that has been established and hurt the rebuilding process. The defense needs to improve and Wyoming must be more prepared and focused for road games. These are all improvements that Bohl is capable of, but only if he is given time to continue building. His NDSU team even went 3-8 before the string of national championships occurred, raising eyebrows and causing some Bison fans to call for his firing. The best way that Wyoming can recruit, with all of its disadvantages, is to play on its strengths--and that, at the moment, is its coaching. The school is also investing into its facilities and War Memorial Stadium and surrounding practice facilities have vastly improved the past decade. Furthermore, Wyoming must do all it can to retain Bohl. All too often, coaches who see success in the Group of 5 leave before national championship potential may ever be realized, and it is not out of the question to think Bohl would look into Power 5 opportunities in the future.
For Wyoming to ever have a shot at the playoff, it is almost a given that Bohl would need to have stayed for long enough to create national attention and a tradition of winning as he did with NDSU. It would also seem, as was the case with Houston or even Boise State of years past, that a New Year's Six Bowl win is a prerequisite to garnering enough acclaim to reach the top of the rankings. A Group of 5 likely has to prove itself on a big stage before it would be allowed to go the next step. The committee would feel more at ease putting in a Group of 5 team in the playoff that proved itself in a major bowl by beating a Power 5 team than one who had not played on a big stage.
So, can Craig Bohl ever take Wyoming to the playoff? The odds are slim and not in his favor, or for any Group of 5 team for that matter. Wyoming has even more limitations than just being out of the Power 5 ring of power, and Bohl can only do so much with so little. But he has proven himself as a true leader and mastermind of the sport, and he is likely to take Wyoming to heights it is not accustomed with the right supports. It is narrowly possible for his team to reach the playoff if all the chips fell in the right place at the right time sometime in the distant future, but a New Year's Six bowl would be a more realistic ultimate goal. There are alternative paths to a national championship, such as if Wyoming were ever to receive an invite to a Power 5 conference (very unlikely) or if the Group of 5 were to form its own division and play for a championship. An expanded playoff is also a more forgiving scenario for Wyoming to reach the top. But these are very lofty goals for a program that just isn't used to winning lately. After records of 4-8, 5-7, 4-8, and 2-10 the four years previous to the 8-6 turnaround, even reaching the Poinsettia Bowl was a prize for Wyoming fans. The Cowboys narrowly lost to San Diego State in the Mountain West title game in Laramie, but still seek their first conference title in nearly thirty years. There is a long, long way to go before even discussing a New Year's Six game, much less a playoff game. After years of mediocrity and frustration, however, Wyoming fans long for and dream of what magic Bohl could work, seeing the stunning upsets of Boise State and San Diego State in 2016 in addition to the wonders he created out of a once unheard of FCS program. All one can do is wait and see where he takes the program next, and whether or not Josh Allen decides to return at quarterback will play a big part in the Cowboys' success in 2017. Long-term success, though, will hinge on belief in Bohl, sticking to "Cowboy Tough," and his ability to stick around for a long time.