A Dramatic Drop In Offense Has The Senators In A Better Spot?
Fred Chartrand/THE CANADIAN PRESS
We all love offense don't we? Every single sport is trying to increase offense therefore create more entertainment. I stand by my belief that if you're a fan you honestly don't care how your teams win, as long as they win. The Ottawa Senators are now winning. They aren't winning with high flying entertaining offense, they're doing it with defense.
Last season the Senators were the ninth highest scoring team in the NHL. But scoring 230 goals or 2.80 goals per game didn't really get them anywhere. They couldn't keep the puck out of their own net. They gave up 241 goals or 2.94 goals against per game. That was fifth worst in the entire NHL.
Were there other reasons for the Senators having a bad season last year? Of course, the team couldn't stay healthy and their special teams was a combined 90% which is just not good enough. But to me defense was the main reason.
Defense is the main reason why the Senators point percentage was at .518% (19th) last season and why it's at .659% (5th best) right now. Defense is the reason why Ottawa finished at 38-35-9 and missed the playoffs by eight points. It's also the reason why (as of right now) they're 14-7-1 and five points safe.
Look at all the fancy stats you want, I'll look at goals against per game. The Sens gave up 2.94 goals per game last season which made them 26th in that category. This season they are letting up 2.32 goals per game the 7th best total.
Lets cut that number into months though because since November that number is even lower. The Senators did not start very well in terms of goals against per game. From the start of the season on October 12th to November 1st the Sens gave up 3.12 goals against per game. They went 5-3-0 during that stretch but gave up 3 or more goals in three of those five wins.
Now go from November 1st to present day Ottawa is giving up just 1.85 goals against per game. They've given up 3 or more goals just four times total in 14 games. That 1.85 number is 3rd best since November started behind only Minnesota (1.83) and Nashville (1.84).
You can't look at one stat and ignore others and giving up a small GAPG begs you to look up other numbers like shots against per game. This number isn't good. 31.2 shots against per game this season and unlike the goals against it doesn't get better in November, it actually gets a little worse at 32.2. Last years final number in shots against was 32.8 which was worst in the NHL.
So looking at that stat and you might think the defense isn't really any better. Or maybe goaltending is bailing them out. I would argue against both cases looking at the numbers.
They might be giving up similar shot totals but lets look at where some of these shots are coming from. When looking at team defense no matter how good you are I love looking at this kind of thing.
This season this is where the Senators shots against are coming from, 4.31 high danger shots against per game, 6.40 medium danger shots per game and 13.13 low danger shots per game.
Compare those numbers to last season. 5.18 high danger, 8.08 medium danger and 11.91 low danger. What does this tell me? Ottawa this season is pushing teams to the outside more.
In the high danger shots against a great team was usually around high 3's and a bad team was usually around 6 and up. Shaving nearly one whole point off that stat is pretty big to me. Taking another point and a half off the medium danger is also big and putting them on low danger shots is great. Make it easy for the goalies.
Which is now a good segue to talk about Craig Anderson. I've seen and heard several articles and people say Anderson has played great this season which has led to more success from the Sens. Sure that makes sense but based on where the shots are coming from he doesn't have to be great like Carey Price.
Price faces 5.40 high danger shots per game and his save percentage is a league leading 93.06% in that category.
Anderson on the other hand faces 4.64 high danger shots per game and his save percentage is just 81.01% which ranks 16th this season (in goalies that have played 500 minutes or more). His medium danger save percentage is fairly "average" too 92.79% also ranks 16th. But his low danger save percentage is 99.19% which is 2nd in the NHL behind only Chad Johnson of Calgary.
Craig Anderson is saving the shots he should save and the Senators are pushing more shots outside which is making his life a lot easier.
I'll point out just a couple of more defensive improvements. Penalty killing that was 29th last season at 75.8 is now at 86.2 which is 5th best.
Ottawa also blocks more shots this season now blocking 17.7 shots on average. Last season that was 14.5. They jumped ten spots in that ranking being 13th in 15-16 to 3rd in 16-17 so far.
Do they have room for improvement? Obviously, letting up over 31 shots per game isn't good enough. On top of that their possession numbers aren't good either, their team Corsi being 48.29 which is bottom third of the league.
But what do you know, a team that scored 2.80 goals on average last season missed the playoffs because they let up 2.94 goals against per game. The Senators offense this season looks somewhat pathetic ranking 28th scoring just 2.18 goals per game, but the defense has improved a ton now allowing just 2.32 goals against and 1.85 in the last month.
It's not shocking the Senators have improved this season looking at some of these numbers, improve on possession and shots against and who knows how well this team could play. Guy Boucher has done a heck of a job in Canada's Capitol.
