Dealing with the Madness
It's that time of year again when the NCAA tournament takes over television for three intense weekends. During that time we will see sports at its craziest. Most will tell you they love the opening weekend. It is almost like the tryouts for American Idol because you are not watching for what should happen; instead you are watching for what could happen. For the sports nuts who are lucky enough to correctly pick an upset, they will live off that moment for years to come. Magically, they will forget about their infinite number of bad picks that did not pan out.
My approach has not been overly successful. I usually go onto ESPN and fill out a bunch of brackets which usually collapse after the opening tip. I have won a couple of pools but I do not even finish in the top half most of the time. One of the pools I did win was a shock, I forgot I had Kemba Walker and UConn winning it all. It is a dream of mine to spend the opening weekend in Vegas just betting on everything and probably losing money hand over fist. This would be followed sitting at a bar losing money hand over fist, and eventually a black jack table losing money hand over fist, some dream.
So here is my insightful guide into picking an unsuccessful bracket and enjoying the tournament:
1. Don't Fear Your Lack of Education
I don't know enough about every matchup. Some matchups favor the weaker seed because they play a style the better seed cannot handle. There are not enough hours in the day to do my job, follow the NBA, and know a lot about each college team. Since the Raptors are playing well this year, I have spent less time watching the NCAA. The fact that Indiana was never really in the Big 10 picture, my interest waned even more. Wiggins and Kansas received most of my NCAA disposable time, but they were up and down so much I feel they are a coin flip each game. I know there will be some mid-majors who make some noise but which ones are in the ideal situations?
2. The 12 vs 5 myth/attraction
If you are betting single games, the 12 vs 5 matchup is very sexy. Put $100 on each game and you should finish even at worst. Unfortunately, most people are playing a bracket. In the last 25 years, the 12 seed has won at least one game in 23 of those years. You still have to choose which of the four 12 seeds you are going to pick. The 5 seed is still above .500 against the 12 so if you are going in blind, the 5 is a better pick. (The 5 wins 67% of the time.)
3. The Unpredictable Run
Maybe this one speaks to my lack of intelligence but every year a team makes an improbable run. If a 13 seed pulls off two unlikely victories and makes it to the sweet 16, it is usually in the bracket where I had a three seed making the final four. Before long my bracket looks like my old spelling tests. Sports radio usually finds a lucky bracketeer who claims they knew Western Alabama Tech could beat Kansas and then Duke despite every other expert having the favorites winning by twenty plus. There might be some skill in this, but I see a lot of dumb luck. More often than not the final four has the favored seeds advancing, not Cinderella.
4. Coaches and Personal Favorites
I confess, I over value the role of coaches. Whether it be the Hall of Famers like Coach K, Bobby Knight or Jim Boeheim or maybe the sexy picks like Shaka Smart or Tubby Smith, I will always pick the coaches I know. This always gets me in trouble as Syracuse often finds an early exit and the one year you dismiss them, that Carmelo kid wins it all for them. (I know, that whole team had loads of other talent.) I will also get in trouble choosing programs that had great runs in the past, Gonzaga anyone? How about Butler, or was it Baylor?
5. The Desperate Dismissed Picks (a.k.a. I can't care about all 67 games.)
When I lose interest in my bracket, I just randomly pick teams. Does anyone really have true insight in the George Washington v Memphis matchup? How about New Mexico v Stanford? Yeah I just clicked on either without much thought. Picking an expert to follow is as random as picking a team itself. Each is blessed/cursed with more knowledge. I just listen to one guy who said three of the one seeds could lose their second round matchups; genus and fools are only a few bounces apart.
6. This Year's Sexy Choice
Everyone loves Michigan State and Louisville this year. Michigan State is on a roll but did lose 8 games this year. Tom Izzo is a great coach and does extremely well at tournament time. They lost to several unranked teams who are ranked now but also spent a lot of the season injured. It would be fun to see them play UNC for a trip to the final four.
Most experts find Louisville's seeding to be a poor one. ESPN had them in the top 5 for both the AP Poll and coach's poll in their final rankings. How they dropped to a 4th seed is an NCAA mystery. They had five losses against ranked teams throughout the year and if you ask Pitino, he is the best coach in the NCAA. They are the defending champs and deserved more credit.
7. My Best Advice
Sit back and enjoy the ride. Have lots of snacks and beverages on hand and enjoy every moment. Avoid long meetings and classes on Thursday and Friday. With all those games, there will be magic!
