The Age Parabola and Rebuilding

I have always believed the magical athlete age vertex was 28-30. (I am aware of my bastardization of the term vertex.) Usually, players are improving physically up to the vertex and then they are fighting to maintain after their 30th birthday. Smart players on the downside of their career may also demonstrate veteran like intelligence and craftiness that might actually make them better players. The vertex was always my ceiling for a players maximum physical output but certainly did not limit their usefulness or MVP potential. Many players in their 30s have led teams to championships and many championship teams have been loaded with players well past the vertex as well.


Before Peter 'Dum' Puck disassembled the loaded Oilers in the mid to late 80's, I thought they had the potential to win 7-10 Stanley Cups. They won their first Cup in 1984 and the average age of their core group was 25. As a kid, I thought nothing would get in their way and I assumed they would be contenders until the mid to late 90s. The fact that the Rangers won a Cup in 1994 with nine former Oilers not named Gretzky on their team does give a lot of weight to my theory. That same Gretzky made the Finals the year before, but Leaf fans don`t want that mentioned.


This brings up a team like the Raptors. They have added nothing but managed to bring back the whole band. Many fans are wondering if this is a good thing and I believe it is. Because of the organzations stability, there will not be a lot of questions surrounding them as they enter the season. Questions like, can they do it again? Or will Kyle Lowry have a contract signing hangover? Don't really count in my books. All of the players are on the same page and the rotations won't be altered a whole lot. Sure Casey will play around with certain looks but he will also try to maximize their potential. But here is the key factor, since the core of the team is less than the Vertex, team and individual improvement can be expected. So the Raptors, despite very little change, should be a significantly better team. I am hoping for at least a second round appearance or deeper.


One key to development though is a balance in the parabola. The number of veterans does not have to equal the young core but you need experience and leadership. OKC has not gotten rid of Kendrick Perkins because he brings some experience to the table. Juwan Howard gave a key speech during the Heat`s championship run in 2013 that helped them reach the top. The Edmonton Oilers are loaded with young talent but have next to no veteran leadership and they can't find their first step out of the basement.


Which leads me to the next scary NBA trend. Lebron started it by going home to the young Cavs. A superstar leaves their team which has plateaued and joins a young team full of assets. Next up, KD is looking to join Washington. Their new teams allow them a chance to make moves to set themselves up for a run. The key is to build the team first and then insert the superstar. Young playoff teams who have caproom are the new Big 3. Presently, Charlotte and New Orleans are very scary looking. Look for them to be superstar free agent destinations over the next couple of years.