Projecting the First CFP Top 25
What better treat for college football fans on Halloween than the College Football Playoff Committee's first Top 25 rankings? Before that, though, I'd like to post my projected CFP Top 25 ratings, which attempts to factor in all such items considered by the CFP committee ("eye test," SOS, common opponents, head to head, etc.). Right now, it seems clear who the top 2 teams are, followed by a massive scrum of teams from spots 4-9.
#, Team (Rating)
1. Alabama (1.000)
While having a relatively weak schedule, they have dominated most of their opponents, and it seems like the only thing stopping Alabama is Alabama's offensive struggles.
2. Georgia (0.969)
Similar to Alabama, Georgia's defense is incredible, and their running game has been great, but asking Jake Fromm (or Jacob Eason) to get them out of a hole would make things really tough.
3. Ohio State (0.866)
They have the second biggest win of the season so far vs. Penn State (with Oklahoma's win over Ohio State being the biggest). We'll have to see if J.T. Barrett can even come close to sustaining the numbers he put up in the 2nd half against Penn State.
4. Clemson (0.863)
Their loss at Syracuse showed just how important Kelly Bryant is to Clemson's success. If he can make it through the rest of the season, then they're still in the driver's seat to win the ACC.
5. Notre Dame (0.844)
Their single loss to Georgia by 1 point to start the season is looking less and less terrible by the week, and their recent wins against USC and NC State are making the Irish look better and better. If they win out, given their schedule, it'd be hard to leave Notre Dame out of the Playoff.
6. Wisconsin (0.794)
Given their incredibly weak schedule. I feel like Wisconsin needs a lot of help to make it in the Playoff. Their best bet is to win out AND demolish whoever comes out of the Big Ten East to have a chance.
7. Penn State (0.788)
While the loss to Ohio State hurts, it was by 1 point on the road. There's been too much chaos already to completely eliminate Penn State's chances of making the Playoff, especially with Saquon Barkley.
8. Oklahoma (0.694)
Despite the Iowa State loss (which doesn't look terrible anymore), they have the best win of the season thus far (at Ohio State). Any loss from any of the teams ranked above Oklahoma, and they can find their way back in the hunt for a playoff spot.
9. Miami (FL) (0.691)
While still undefeated, the Hurricanes have had some close calls (probably too many at this point). However, their next 2 games (vs. Virginia Tech, vs. Notre Dame) will reveal just how good Miami is.
10. Oklahoma State (0.578)
I know that seeing Oklahoma State above TCU is odd, but here's the rationale: Oklahoma State's loss (against TCU) isn't nearly as bad as TCU's loss (against Iowa State). This Saturday's game vs. Oklahoma will be a de facto elimination game, as the loser will have a 2nd loss and will have a very slim chance of cracking the elusive Top 4.
11. TCU (0.569)
12. Washington (0.516)
13. Virginia Tech(0.491)
14. UCF (0.463)
15. USC (0.453)
16. Auburn (0.378)
17. Stanford (0.303)
18. Iowa State (0.297)
19. Mississippi State (0.275)
20. LSU (0.259)
21. Memphis (0.209)
22. NC State (0.206)
23. Michigan (0.150)
24. Michigan State (0.122)
25. Arizona (0.113)
Other Teams in Consideration (in order by how close they were to the Top 25): Washington State, South Carolina, San Diego State, Toledo, Boise State, Texas, Louisville, Texas A&M, Iowa, USF, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Wake Forest
