Fantasy Football: Draft or Avoid
Here are players I really like, and players I will avoid at their current ADP, according to ESPN.
Draft at their ADP, or sooner:
Odell Beckham Jr, 32 overall, #13 WR
OBJ had a really rough year in Cleveland. I think he'll bounce back and will be close to the receiver was in New York. His practice highlights are impressive and he seems to be on the same page with Baker Mayfield. He should be a top 10 WR with top 5 upside.
David Johnson, 41 overall, #18 RB
A change of scenery will do wonders for David Johnson. He struggled with injuries last season but he seems healthy now. He'll do better with a run-threat QB and is a great receiver out of the backfield. There isn't much competition in the Texans backfield, so he should get a lot of touches. DJ will be a borderline top 10 RB this year.
Dak Prescott, 51 overall, #6 QB
It's easy to love Dak this year. He finished #2 among QBs in total fantasy points last year. This off-season, the Cowboys offense added the best Wide Receiver (in my opinion) from this year's draft, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup should improve in year 2. They Cowboys have 3 receivers who could reach the 1,000 yard mark. Dak will put up monster numbers this year.
Will Fuller V, 79 overall, #33 WR
DeAndre Hopkins was traded this off-season, so Will Fuller will be the #1 receiver. He has struggled to stay healthy, but will have a great season if he can stay healthy. Hopkins had 150 targets last year that will be distributed to the Texans receivers, a large portion should go to Fuller.
Josh Allen, 95 overall, #11 QB
I'm not why Josh Allen is getting drafted so low, I would take him over several QBs being drafted above him. He finished last season as the #6 fantasy QB. Fantasy scoring really helps rushing QBs and Allen rushed for over 500 yards and 9 touchdowns last year. Last season, their receivers were less than impressive. This off-season, they traded for Stefon Diggs, who will give Josh Allen a #1 receiver.
Hayden Hurst, 112 overall, #12 TE
The Atlanta Falcons signed him after losing Austin Hooper in free agency. Hurst was in a crowded Tight End room with in Baltimore. Now he'll be the main Right End in Atlanta and should have a big year. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will attract attention outside, leaving the middle of the field open for Hurst, like it was for Hooper last year. He's a top 10 Tight End.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 153 overall, #18 QB
In his first season post ACL, Jimmy G threw for 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. George Kittle is the best tight end in football and their receiving corps keeps getting better. Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, and Trent Taylor are all improving and rookie speedster Brandon Aiyuk will add another dimension to this passing game. The 49ers also signed Jordan Reed this off-season, who adds another pass catching tight end to the mix. There are 10 defenses and 5 kickers being drafted in front of Jimmy G, which is insane.
Avoid at their ADP:
D.J. Moore, 29 overall, #11 WR
Teddy Bridgewater is now the QB in Carolina and Matt Rhule has taken over as the head coach. Rhule has a run first philosophy. Look for fewer passes and more runs in the Panthers' offense this year. Rhule also emphasized the running backs in the passing game during his time at Baylor. Christian McCaffery will have another monster season, but the receivers will be average. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel will split targets, so neither will have a breakout season.
Courtland Sutton, 39 overall, #15 WR
The Broncos have a lot of weapons in their passing game with Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DeaSean Hamilton, KJ Hamler, and tight end Noah Fant. Their passing game will feast or famine with Drew Lock at quarterback, he's the question mark on that offense, and I think he'll be disappointing.
Russell Wilson, 46 overall, #4 QB
The Seahawks are not a pass heavy team, even with the talent of Wilson and their receivers. Last year, he finished 5th in fantasy points per game. He should fall on that list if Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees can stay healthy, and if Kyler Murray and Josh Allen improve like we think they should. Wilson will be a borderline top 10 QB this year.
Devin Singletary, 57 overall, #23 RB
The coaching staff in Buffalo doesn't seem to like Singletary even though he was impressive with his limited touches last season. Frank Gore had more touches than Singletary last season, even though Singletary averaged 1.5 more yards per carry. Gore is gone now, but the Bills drafted Zach Moss in the 3rd round. It seems the Bills plan on splitting touches between Singletary and Moss, and Josh Allen will steal touchdowns form the running backs.
David Montgomery, 71 overall, #28 RB
I was on my draft list at this ADP, but the past few days have been concerning. He injured his groin during a non-contact drill in practice. That's always a red flag. Also, Leonard Fournette was released by the Jaguars and the Bears have the best odds to sign him, according to the Vegas odds.
