DraftKings NBA Picks for March 31st 2017
The following is a post from Alex Hunter (@Hunta512)
What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 31st, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with 11 games on tap. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @hunta512.
PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (9,600) Cousins just missed two games with a sprained ankle, but he showed no signs of an injury when he returned Wednesday night, playing a game high 40 minutes, and putting up a monstrous line of 29 points, 16 rebounds, six assists, and a block in the win over The Mavs. (61.5 DK points) There is a two game gap in here, but he has been playing well alongside Anthony Davis over his last three games, now averaging 63.3 DK points in his past three contests. Tonight, he is at home, where he is averaging 5.3 more DK points a game, taking on his former team, The Sacramento Kings. Now I usually don’t like playing narratives in DFS, but there is no way Cousins hasn’t had this game marked down on his calendar since The Kings went behind his back and traded him to The Pelicans at the deadline. He is obviously fine with being in New Orleans now, but there is no doubt in my mind that an emotional guy like Cousins will be trying to have a huge game tonight. Outside of the revenge factor here for Cousins, the matchup is also a plus vs this Kings team that is presenting a current opponent +/- of 1.19 points. The Pelicans are 11.5 point favorites in this game, but I think we see Cousins still log 30-35 minutes tonight even if The Pelicans get a lead. I am expecting 50-55 DK points out of him in this game and he is a building block for me on Friday night.
C: Montrezl Harrell: (3,000) After missing two games because of the birth of his child, Harrell is expected to return tonight, with his team shorthanded, with Rockets backup center Nene being rested. Harrell has been out of this rotation, with starter Clint Capela and Nene soaking up all the center minutes, but with Nene out, Harrell should play 20-25 minutes tonight off the bench. He is averaging just under 1.0 DK point per minute this season, and in the 12 games that Nene has been out, Harrell is averaging 21.3 DK points in 22.3 minutes a game. His matchup is neutral vs The Warriors, who have a current opponent +/- of 0.07 points, but he has succeeded against this defense, averaging 23.6 DK points in the two games he has played in against The Warriors this season. Also, when factoring in game environment, he couldn’t be in a better situation, with this game having a slate high O/U game total of 230 points, which is the highest total of Friday night by ten points. With the minutes I am expecting, he should produce right around 20 DK points, which would be an excellent 6.6 point per dollar value return at his minimum price tag. There isn’t much upside here, but at his price, he is a strong punt play that can be used in all formats.
PF: Skal Labissiere: (4,600) Skal got the start at PF last game with Kosta Koufos resting, and was very effective in an extremely tough matchup vs The Jazz, scoring nine points to go along with seven rebounds, two assists, one block, and one steal over 33 minutes of action. (24.75 DK points) With Koufos being rested again tonight, Labissiere should draw another start at PF, and most likely play even more minutes with backup PF Anthony Tolliver, who played 15 minutes vs The Jazz, also being rested. The Kings will also be without guards Ty Lawson (rest) and Aaron Affalo (personal), giving The Kings only nine healthy bodies for tonight’s tilt vs The Pelicans. There have been no full games that all these players have missed this season, but in the 130 minutes since The Trade Deadline, that Labissiere has played without all four of these players, he is scoring 1.04 DK points per minute, with a 22.6% usage rate, and is scoring 37.56 DK points per 36 minutes of action. His matchup with The Pelicans could obviously be better going against Demarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis (-0.32 opponent +/-), but it is a much easier matchup than The Jazz, and with this kind of playing time and usage, he should put up 25-30 DK points with solid upside. In fact, over the last four games that the rookie has logged at least 25 minutes, he is averaging 33.8 DK points a game. He is a strong value play at $4,600 and is a player I will be targeting in both cash game and GPPs tonight.
SG: Andre Iguodala: (4,600) Iguodala has been great off the bench the last three games, with 41.75 DK points vs The Grizzlies, 28.5 DK points vs The Rockets, and 28 DK points vs The Spurs. He is finally starting to take on a bigger load with Kevin Durant out (knee), averaging 15.3 points compared to his season average of 7.3 points a game this year, with a 15.9% usage rate, which doesn’t seem like much, but it is 4.9% increase from the rate he was posting before these three games. Tonight, he is at home going against The Rockets who have given up the 11th most DK points to opposing SGs this season, with an opponent +/- 1.48 points. Also, as I said above this is one of the best games of the night to target, with its O/U game total of 230 points. He has played well in these type of games, especially vs The Rockets, with him averaging 24.2 DK points in the first three Rockets-Warriors games this year. 24 DK points would put him right over five times value at his current price, and this is somewhat a tentative projection, with him averaging 32.75 DK points over his past three games. With his low expected ownership of 5-8% (via Fantasy Labs), Iguodala is one of my favorite GPP targets of this huge 11 game slate.
Also Consider: Branden Wright (solid punt with Green and Gasol ruled out), James Ennis (if he starts again, 25.5 DK points last game starting at PF), Darren Collison (should play a lot with Lawson ruled out), Ben McLemore, Avery Bradley, Vince Carter, Kelly Olynyk (I know he has been horrible, but at only $3,900, he is still In play in GPPs against this Magic defense with their high 4.12 opponent +/-), Mathew Dellavedova (Should start with Malcom Brogdon out), Lou Williams, Clint Capela, Troy Daniels, and Enes Kanter.