DraftKings NFL Week 7 Sleeper Picks
This DraftKings NFL Week 7 Sleeper Picks article is written by Jay Novak.
There was a lot of variance in last week’s picks. Lamar Miller and Coby Fleener were the home run hitters, returning 35.8 and 25.6 DraftKings points respectively. The Ravens defense posted a modest 7 DK points and Brandon LaFell’s touchdown saved him from an otherwise forgettable day. Things were looking up early for Marvin Jones, who caught a touchdown on the Lions opening drive, but he had just one catch the rest of the game as Golden Tate (and to a lesser degree Anquan Boldin) stole the show. Russell Wilson had a clean game, but his failure to find the end zone limited his fantasy production to his floor rather than the ceiling his DFS investors were hoping for. Doug Baldwin likewise disappointed, seeing only 5 of WIlson’s 37 pass attempts, and finishing with a 4/31/0 line. Jeremy Maclin led all Kansas City pass catchers with 3 receptions for 49 yards but was capped by Alex Smith only attempting 22 passes as the Chiefs went run-heavy in their 26-10 drubbing of the Raiders.
Looking to Week 7, injuries have once again opened up a lot of potential value. With that in mind, the following is a mix of my favorite higher-priced sleepers and high-upside values that should offer solid production at discounted salaries in Week 7. Check out Kevin's video below, and my Week 7 Sleeper picks below as well...
Quarterback
Tom Brady ($7900) - Love him or hate him, Brady is back and as good as ever. In the two games since returning from his suspension, Brady’s averaged (yes, averaged) just shy of 400 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game. Those were matchups against the Browns and Bengals, and this week he faces another AFC North foe in the Steelers. The Steelers pass defense ranks 21st in DVOA (24th overall) and presents another plus matchup for Tom Terrific. The Patriots are touchdown favorites, so it’s possible game flow could favor running the ball late, and Legarrette Blount does have the revenge game storyline this week, facing the team he played with for 11 largely unproductive games in 2014 between his first and current stint with the Patriots. Blount could make for a very sneaky leverage play but, after seeing Brady dismantle the Browns and Bengals, I’m buying into the Angry Tom narrative.
Blake Bortles ($6200) - Bortles hasn’t taken the next step many expected of him after his breakout campaign last season. He’s still quite turnover prone (7 INT, 2 lost fumbles in 5 games) and hasn’t been scoring (8 pass TDs, 1 rush) at the clip he was last year, but this week’s home tilt against the Raiders gives him a great chance to get things back on track. The Raiders defense ranks 29th in DVOA (28th against the pass) and has been a friendly fantasy opponent to QBs and WRs alike, ranking 24th and 29th in DvP against the positions, respectively. The Jags are 1 point favorites with a healthy over/under game total of 47.5. In a matchup with shootout potential that features the Raiders swiss cheese secondary and the Jags 31st ranked rushing attack, the stars might finally be in alignment for Bortles to have a monster game.
Running Back
Spencer Ware ($5800) - There’s a ton of value at RB this week, with Jacquizz Rodgers ($4300) and Mike Gillislee ($3000) expected to lead the way. Rodgers will definitely start for the Bucs, but LeSean McCoy did get a limited practice in on Friday, so keep an eye on the news coming out of Buffalo. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a dream matchup against the Saints bottom 3 in DVOA run defense. The Saints secondary is just as bad, but the Chiefs are one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league (look no further than last week’s game against an equally poor Raiders defense). The Chiefs are 6.5 point favorites with the game total sitting at 50.5. I have a feeling the game will stay under the Vegas total, but only because of how well the Chiefs defense plays at home and how much the Saints offense struggles on the road. Game flow should favor the Chiefs ground game. Ware is healthy, but Charles, who continues to work his way back from offseason ACL surgery, was limited at Friday’s practice after experiencing swelling in his knee. He is now listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. If Charles plays, don’t expect this to be the week he cuts into Ware’s role as lead back. Ware is a rock-solid RB1 whose safe floor and massive ceiling are a steal at only $5800.
Duke Johnson Jr. ($3900) - Johnson makes this list as a less expensive pivot off James White ($4600) and Jacquizz Rodgers, who will both go much higher owned this week. Johnson has averaged nearly twice as many DK points in road games than he has in home games this season (12.8 away compared to 6.9 at home). Game flow is partly responsible for that, but the Browns are winless, so game flow has generally favored Johnson regardless of where the Browns are playing. Johnson has seen 6+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games, and totaled no fewer than 12.6 DK points in those 3 games. Meanwhile, production from the Browns early-down back Isaiah Crowell has dropped off precipitously. Crowell had between 12 and 18 carries in each of the first 4 games, averaging a whopping 6.46 yards per carry to go along with 3 touchdowns. In the last two games, Crowell's 22 total carries have yielded just 38 yards and no touchdowns. Also working in Johnson’s favor this week is a plus matchup against the Bengals who rank 29th in DVOA against running backs in passing situations, as opposed to 18th in running situations. Last week the Bengals limited Legarrette Blount to 50 yards on 13 carries, but passing-down back James White went off for 8 catches, 47 yards, and 2 touchdowns, totaling 24.7 DK points. The Browns are double-digit dogs and the Bengals should have a much easier time covering Gary Barnidge than they did Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett last week, making Johnson a strong (and stealthy) leverage play.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson ($7300) - In the $7-8K price tier, Mike Evans is this week’s chalk. He’s got a great matchup against the 49ers and has seen 55 targets in his last 4 games. And while he’s had 3 touchdowns during that span, he’s only had one game of 10 catches or 100 yards, and has converted just less than half of those 55 targets (27) into receptions. Yes, Allen Robinson has been a huge let down this season. He hasn’t surpassed 60 receiving yards since Week 1 and was limited to just 3 receptions (on 6 targets) and 49 yards last week against what was thought to be an exploitable Bears secondary. Most people will flock to Evans, meaning they’ll sleep on Robinson who, despite his struggles, is still one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. Long overdue for a monster game, Robinson could finally go off this week against a Raiders secondary that’s been exploited by opposing wideouts on a weekly basis. The Jags and Bucs are both slight favorites and have similar implied totals of 24.25 and 23.75, respectively. Between Evans and Robinson, I’ll take the less expensive, less popular receiver who’s playing at home and has the (slightly) more accurate QB throwing to him.
Tyrell Williams ($4400) - Williams will probably have a good chunk of ownership this week, but his salary is too low for his usage and big play ability. “WR1” Travis Benjamin didn’t practice until a limited session Thursday and listed as questionable with a knee injury. Williams is healthy, $1700 cheaper, and has averaged 1.5 more DK points per game than Benjamin in road games. In the last 4 games, Williams leads all Chargers with 5 red zone targets (Hunter Henry has 3 and is the only other pass catcher with more than one RZ target during the same time frame). This week, the Chargers travel east to Atlanta and are 6.5 point underdogs in what Vegas anticipates being the highest scoring game on the slate (the current over/under is 54). Benjamin, if he plays, won't be anywhere near 100% making Williams the best vertical threat Rivers has. At $4400, he only needs one big play to return value but the matchup and expected game flow suggest he could be in line for a much bigger day.
Tight End
Jack Doyle ($2500) - In a slate chockfull of value, Doyle might just take the cake. Decimated by injuries, the Colts are somehow only 3 point underdogs at the Titans this week, with a Vegas-implied projection of 22.25 points. Receivers Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett have officially been ruled out this week, as has tight end Dwayne Allen. Allen exited last week’s game in the first quarter and Doyle wound up playing 64 of 71 offensive snaps. Doyle should have close to an every-down role again this week and won’t need to do much to return value on his minimum salary. Chester Rogers is expected to step into the WR2 role opposite T.Y. Hilton and, like Doyle, makes for an interesting (and perhaps lower owned than Doyle) minimum-priced punt play.
Defense
Chiefs D/ST ($2600) - The Vikings and Broncos (if you're playing a slate that includes MNF) are probably the chalk plays this week, and the Bengals will draw considerable ownership as well, but the Chiefs might have just as much upside at more than $1000 discount. This unit has an extra gear when playing at Arrowhead and the Saints offensive struggles away from the Superdome are well documented. Marcus Peters leads the league with 5 interceptions this year and is expected to play this week after suffering a stinger to his shoulder against the Raiders last week that caused him to miss a handful of snaps. The Chiefs are a middling team in terms of yards allowed, but have yielded the 10th fewest points per game and are tied for 2nd with 12 takeaways (9 INT, 3 fumbles recovered). A word of caution though: The Chiefs have only registered 7 sacks in 5 games, while Brees has only been sacked 8 times through the Saints first 5 games, making this a potentially risky pick if the Chiefs are unable to generate a pass rush.
