DraftKings Sleeper Picks for Week 5 NFL
The following article is written by Jay for DraftKings action in NFL Week 5.
Last week's list had a couple hits and a handful of duds, including some unfortunate injuries. Steve Smith Sr. was the best of the bunch, returning 28.1 DraftKings points on a salary of only $4500. I did some more digging this week and have come up with the following list of players that should go lower owned but are still in good spots to put up big numbers.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5100) - There’s several top-tier QBs in good matchups this week (see: Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisburger, Luck), and it’s reasonable to expect a good chunk of ownership to be spread out across those guys. In the bargain bin, Brian Hoyer is the name drawing the most attention as he’s thrown for more than 300 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns in back-to-back weeks at minimum salary (22.88 DK points @ Dallas in Week 3 and 22.78 DK points vs. Detroit last week) and has another plus matchup against the Colts sub-par secondary this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a potentially sneaky play whose recent struggles will scare away most DFS players from rostering him.
Despite his next-to-minimum price tag, Fitzpatrick’s ownership should remain deflated thanks to his recent performance. Fitz has been dreadful in his last two games, in which he’s totaled only 15.66 DK points and compiled a jaw-dropping 1-9 TD-INT ratio. Those games were against two of the league’s best secondaries in the Chiefs and Seahawks. This week, however, presents a better matchup against a softer Steelers secondary. Word is Fitzpatrick will be without Eric Decker, but that doesn’t leave him without weapons. Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa both matchup well against the Steelers and Bilal Powell has reemerged as a valuable target out of the backfield with 6 receptions in each of the last two games. The Steelers have struggled to generate a pass rush and rank next-to-last in the league with only 5 sacks through their first four games, meaning Fitzpatrick should have more time this week to find his receivers and shouldn’t be pressured into mistakes the way he was against Kansas City and Seattle. The Jets are 7.5 point underdogs and the Steelers have one of the highest Vegas-implied totals of the week, suggesting game flow will favor Fitzpatrick passing a lot to try and keep the Jets in the game. One last note: the Steelers have allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards per game but the 3rd most passing yards per game, which further illustrates an opportunity for the Jets passing attack to have a big day, regardless of whether it comes in a tightly contested game or in the garbage time of a blowout. Like the similarly priced Hoyer, Fitzpatrick has 300-yard, 3 TD upside but will save you few hundred bucks more so you can fit that extra stud into your lineup.
Running Back
Devonta Freeman ($5000) - Jordan Howard will probably be the chalk in this price range, and rightfully so, given his strong performance last week and feature back duties in the Bears offense that faces another plus matchup against a pretty bad Colts defense. For similar reasons, Terrance West is another strong option in this range, with an equally enticing matchup against the Redskins. I will likely have exposure to both in my lineups, but Freeman is another guy I’m interested in having some tournament exposure to. With some chalky options in his price tier, he will go under-owned. Typically, I’m not one to target the Broncos defense either, but the first month of this season has shown us that it’s really only the Broncos secondary to avoid. Through their first four games, the Broncos are actually a bottom-third run defense, having allowed 113.8 yards per game at a healthy clip of 4.2 yards per carry and a total of 5 rushing touchdowns.
There’s a few other reasons I like Freeman as a sleeper in this spot. For starters, he’s averaged a massive 5.9 yards per carry on the season, a number that spikes to a staggering 7.9 yards per carry on the road. Through the first month, Freeman’s 55 rushing attempts have outnumbered Tevin Coleman’s 40, whose 3.2 yards per carry is barely half of Freeman’s. The two have also split pass-catching duties with Freeman reeling in 11 of 12 targets and Coleman catching 13 of his 15 looks. Despite the split workload, there’s reason to believe this week could favor Freeman a little more than usual. Coleman carries the sickle cell trait, which is a hereditary blood condition that can pose health complications with strenuous exercise at high altitudes. Please understand, I am not a doctor and this is only my layman’s understanding of the condition (I recommend searching “sickle cell and high altitude” if you want to learn more). All reports are that Coleman will be good to go, but if the thin air in Denver does limit him, Freeman would push for bell-cow duties. I wouldn’t bank on Coleman being limited, but Freeman’s potential upside is too great to pass up entirely and any late-breaking news that downgrades Coleman would make Freeman a top-notch tournament play.
Wide Receiver
Dontrelle Inman ($4100) - After Steve Smith Sr.’s 8-111-1 line last week, I’m going back to the well and picking on Raiders slot CB D.J. Hayden again this week. Inman is coming off of a strong performance of his own, catching 7 of 11 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown against the Saints and gets a great matchup this week against the Raiders. The Chargers are 3.5 point underdogs in what is expected to be a shootout (the Vegas total for this game sits at 50.5, the highest total on this week’s slate). The Raiders pass defense ranks dead last and the Chargers have struggled to run the ball (Melvin Gordon had a pathetic 36 yards on 19 carries against the Saints last week), setting the game script up for Rivers airing it out all afternoon. Rivers threw for over 300 yards last week and Inman was the only Charger pass catcher to surpass 5 catches and 65 yards. It remains to be seen whether his increased usage will remain part of the game plan going forward, but his price and matchup make Inman a sneaky play with the potential to have another big day.
Robert Woods ($3900) - Woods has become the de facto WR1 in Buffalo following Sammy Watkins move to the injured-reserve list. Yes, the Bills are a run-first team, but $3900 is way too cheap for the top target on any team and Woods has proven himself capable of the role. He caught 7 of 10 targets for 89 yards against the Patriots last week, a line that would be good enough to return value at this week’s price. He has a good matchup against the Rams’ bottom-third pass defense and, given a true lack of other options, should easily get the largest share of targets from Tyrod Taylor. The Vegas total for this game sits at 39.5, the lowest total on this week’s slate, and the Bills are 2 point underdogs. Most of the public will probably fade this game altogether, and if not, will look to roster McCoy, Gurley, or either of the defenses. However, as a go-to WR in what should be a close game, Woods will be the receiver called upon to do the heavy lifting if the Bills find themselves trailing late. A WR1 with double-digit target potential that’s likely to be overlooked by many makes Woods and his $3900 price tag an absolute steal.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($3700) - Zach Ertz will be a popular play this week (I’ll definitely have him in quite a bit of my lineups) and despite the uncertainty swirling around the health of Rob Gronkowski’s hamstring, I think a lot of people will absorb the risk and get on board Gronk’s party bus for fear of missing out on a breakout game at what is probably the lowest price we’ll see him at the rest of the season. Even if Gronkowski is finally nearing 100%, I don’t think Bennett will just ride off into the sunset. Edelman and Gronkowski are by far Brady’s favorite targets, but he still spreads the ball around and having Bennett in the mix this year is reminiscent of when the Patriots terrorized opposing defenses with the TE tandem of Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Bennett has a similar combination of size, speed, and hands that creates matchup nightmares and has already tallied two 100+ yard receiving games this season. He’s a great secondary red-zone target for defenses that choose to double Gronk. $3700 is too cheap for a guy that carries 20+ DK point upside and Bennett is simply too talented to be relegated to the kind of back up role Scott Chandler played last year when Gronkowski was healthy. Not to mention the Browns have allowed the 4th most DK points per game to opposing TE’s this year. It’s always dicey to gamble on what Belichick’s game plan will be, but if you think the Patriots get back to running a lot of 2 TE sets, Bennett is a fine option.
Gary Barnidge ($3200) - Barnidge is another solid choice at tight end this week. The number of targets he’s seen has risen each week and game flow is expected to favor the passing game for the Browns this week. Historically, the Patriots have given up some pretty big games to tight ends and this week they’re likely to identify Terrelle Pryor as the Browns top offensive weapon and key on shutting him down. Barnidge is a good bet for a healthy dose of targets and could be the top pass catcher in garbage time, as the Patriots tend to give up the middle of the field to keep the clock running. One concern is that Barnidge hasn’t seen any red-zone targets yet this season, but that’s bound to change sooner rather than later for the man who scored 9 receiving TDs a year ago. If the Browns score a passing TD on Sunday, I think Barnidge is the best bet to do it.
*For those of you playing slates that include the Monday Night game, Cameron Brate has seen 16 targets over the past two weeks is a great play at only $2900 against a Panthers defense that is allowing the 5th most DK points per game to tight ends.
Defense
Eagles D/ST ($2900) - My first choice this week is the Vikings, whose defensive unit has been nothing short of outstanding this season and has a strong matchup this week against an underwhelming Texans offense led by turnover-prone Brock Osweiler. The Patriots are likely to be very popular as well and are also a great play this week. For a less expensive option that still offers some upside, the Eagles are worthy of consideration. They’re a top-10 unit in sacks generated going against a Lions offense that is top-10 in most sacks allowed. The Eagles have forced at least one interception and recovered at least one fumble in each of their three games so far. This unit has done an exceptional job, allowing no more than 14 points to any team they’ve played (holding the Steelers potent offense to just a field goal), and scoring 10+ DK points in every game even though they have yet to score a defensive or return touchdown. The Lions are a much better team at home than on the road, but I think the Eagles are up to the task, especially coming off a bye week.
Also check out Kevin's DraftKings NFL Week 5 picks below:
