DraftKings Sleeper Picks - Week 9
Derek Carr wasn’t merely the best sleeper pick in last week’s article; he was the nuts, exploding for a 513-yard 4-touchdown day that rewarded those who rostered him with a whopping 39.82 DK points. Other solid picks included Josh McCown, who put up 25.64 DKP on his $5200 salary, C.J. Fiedorowicz (15.3 DKP at $2800), Devonta Freeman (21.8 DKP at $6500) and John Brown (14.9 DKP at $4700). Alshon Jeffery’s 16.3 DKP was so-so, and Matt Asiata’s 9.8 DKP, Gary Barnidge’s 7.2 DKP and the Cardinals D/ST’s 3 DKP also disappointed, but not to the point of completely tanking a lineup.
In Week 9, another six teams are on bye making for another relatively small player pool. Chalk plays finally took a hit last week so we’ll see whether that was merely a blip on the radar or a sign of more inconsistency to come. Without further ado, the following players top my list for NFL Week 9 DraftKings sleepers.
Quarterback
Philip Rivers ($6500) - Rodgers should be worth every penny of his league-high salary at the QB position this week, but he’s also expected to be the highest owned QB. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but if you’re looking for differentiation, and some salary savings to spend elsewhere, Rivers has a lot of upside of his own in a plus matchup against the Titans. The Titans secondary has allowed 300+ passing yards in 3 consecutive games, and while two of those were to Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler in garbage time, the other game against Andrew Luck was not. Of the three, the Chargers offense (7th in passing YPG, 24th in rushing YPG) is most similar to the Colts (12th passing, 22nd rushing) and Rivers is much more comparable to Luck than Bortles or Kessler. Melvin Gordon is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry in home games and the Chargers should find a lot more success throwing the ball against the Titans 20th ranked pass defense than on the ground, with the Titans ranking 5th best against the run. Aside from the Week 6 game against Denver’s elite secondary, Rivers threw 4 TDs and piled up 24.8 DKP against the Jaguars, and threw for 321 yards and totaled 22.84 DKP against the Saints in his other two home games. Everything points towards Rivers exceeding his salary-based expectations this week, and with upside as good as any of the top-priced QBs, he makes for a strong play at $6500.
If you’re looking to go cheap but aren’t crazy about Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Tannehill ($5600) is an interesting pivot to consider, as is Nick Foles ($5200) as an alternative to Sam Bradford.
Running Back
Terrance West ($4700) - West is a great salary-saving leverage play against the Steelers this week. Coming off a bye week and dud performance the week before against a stout Jets run defense, a lot of people will be off of West (not to be confused with “the other” West, who some have dubbed “Chalkcandrick” this week). In the three games before playing the Jets, West had no fewer than 87 rushing yards, and totaled 3 touchdowns. The Steelers are also coming off a bye week, but their defense is allowing 4.7 yards per rush on the season (ranked 27th) and ranks in the bottom third having allowed 8 rushing TDs in only 7 games played. In what has historically been a low-scoring, physical smash-mouth football inter-division rivalry, we should expect a closely-contested game that features a lot of ground-and-pound from both teams. The Ravens are slight favorites and if they lead late, we can expect West to get a heavy dose of carries down the stretch. West fits the perfect storm criteria of a sleeper pick: he’s a strong bet to fly under the radar, has a plus matchup, and should see plenty of volume to return value on his modest $4700 price tag.
Wide Receiver
Jordy Nelson ($7800) - With almost all of the hype on the emergence of Davante Adams and the expected return of Ty Montgomery, very little has been said about Nelson. It’s almost as though people have forgotten that he’s the unquestioned WR1 in Green Bay. With ownership projected to be north of 15% for Adams and Montgomery, and Rodgers looking like the chalk QB this week, Nelson is a fantastic pivot off of his less-expensive teammates. The Colts pass defense is awful, allowing the 3rd most passing yards per game (288), the 4th highest completion rate (66.8%), rank in the bottom third in both passing yards allowed per attempt (7.9) and passing touchdowns allowed (14), and have a league-worst 2 interceptions. Long story short, Aaron Rodgers should have a field day. Having the highest upside and lowest projected ownership out of the Nelson-Adams-Montgomery trio (as of this writing Randall Cobb’s status is very much up in the air), Nelson is the ideal choice to stack with Rodgers to maximize upside in GPPs.
Brandon Marshall ($7300) - This pick is a little sneakier since Miami’s pass defense has modest rankings: 14th in completion rate allowed (62.8%), 18th in yards allowed per attempt (7.2), 10th in passing yards allowed per game (231) and 17th in sacks generated (16). But the Dolphins have only managed only 3 interceptions on the season, which can’t hurt the turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Marshall is far and away Fitz’s favorite target and some deeper digging reveals the Dolphins defense ranks 27th in DVOA against opposing WR1s. The Jets are also 4-point underdogs, suggesting a game flow favorable for the passing game. Marshall has performed considerably better on the road (24 catches on 49 targets) than at home (10 catches on 28 targets) and has seen at least 9 targets in all but one of his 5 road games. He’s also a safe bet to go underowned, given that there are several popular choices in his immediate price range this week (see: Jarvis Landry, Dez Bryant, and Brandin Cooks).
Tight End
Antonio Gates ($3000) - Gates could (and should) command more ownership than what many would consider to be a “sleeper” pick, but his price and matchup are impossible to ignore. Gates has seen 9 and 10 targets in his last two games and should be a favorite redzone target of Philip Rivers once again, with Travis Benjamin likely limited by a PCL injury and Tyrell Williams playing through a knee injury of his own. Hunter Henry has been ruled out already, so Gates will get the full share of TE targets to himself this week. He’s a good bet for a touchdown against a soft Titans pass defense that has been burned by opposing tight ends the past two weeks. The Jaguars TEs totaled 12 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown last week, and the Colts TEs posted 11 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown the week before. With his solid target floor and plus matchup, Gates should be priced a lot higher than he is. Take advantage.
Defense
Rams D/ST ($2400) - Despite mixed results with D/ST units, I’m continuing to highlight sub $3000 options with upside that also carry a fair amount of risk. This week the Rams fit that trend, coming off of their bye week to face the Panthers. This game has one of the lowest projected totals of the week and after the Panthers drubbed the Cardinals last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people think the Panthers have finally turned the corner. I’m not convinced yet. Although he’s not Andy Reid, Jeff Fisher has had considerable success of his own coming out of bye weeks and, after Cam’s postgame complaints last week, you can expect the Rams defensive front wants to make sure he doesn’t feel safe this week either. Playing as 3-point home underdogs in what’s expected to be a low-scoring battle against a turnover-prone team traveling across the country (the Panthers 17 giveaways are tied for 2nd most in the league), I like the Rams D/ST to make some noise this week and return value on their $2400 salary, which is by far the lowest they’ve been priced all season.
Also check out Kevin's DraftKings Week 9 Picks video below:
