NFL Week 4 DraftKings Sleeper Picks
The following NFL Week 4 DraftKings Sleeper Picks post is from Jay who, as you will see from his picks and write ups, is a sharp football mind.
Hey guys, I'm new to the blogging scene and hope this is the first of a series of articles to come. I've been a season long fantasy football player for about 10 years and started playing DFS regularly a little more than a year ago. This week I'll do my best to give you a few picks that I think will go lesser owned but are nonetheless in solid spots to succeed. Pricing in this week's slate offers a lot of flexibility in lineup construction, so taking down a tournament could hinge on hitting a sleeper pick or two that differentiate your lineup from the field. That being said, the following are some of my favorite picks to fly under the radar in Week 4.
Quarterback
Derek Carr ($6700) - There's so much love this week for Rivers and Cousins that Carr (who is priced right between them) should go pretty low owned. Rivers and Cousins have home matchups against cupcake defenses (the Saints and Browns, respectively) while Carr is on the road at the 3-0 Ravens. Add to the mix the handful of people that have pegged Flacco as a viable tournament play given his plus matchup (the Raiders defense has allowed the most passing yards in the league), and we have the perfect storm for a true sleeper.
On the surface the Ravens undefeated start seems impressive, but each win was a tightly contested game against an underwhelming opponent (13-7 vs. Bills, 25-20 @ Browns, and 19-17 @ Jaguars). The untrained eye will see a 3-0 record and overlook the fact that those wins came against teams with a combined record of 1-8. Meanwhile, the Raiders (2-1) are unbeaten on the road (35-34 @ Saints and 17-10 @ Titans), showing no ill effects in traveling across the country.
Carr is off to a solid start averaging 289 passing yards per game with five passing touchdowns, showing both accuracy (66.9% completion rate) and the ability to take care of the football (1 INT, 0 fumbles). He's also done a great job of spreading the ball around, targeting no fewer than nine pass-catchers in each of the first three games. On the other side of the ball, the once-vaunted Ravens defense is a shell of its former self, the secondary in particular. Four of the five touchdowns the Ravens have allowed (including each of the four allowed in the past two weeks) have come via the pass. Allowing a pair of touchdowns to Corey Coleman in Week 2 and another pair to Allen Robinson last week, the Ravens secondary has proven vulnerable against offenses far less explosive than the Raiders'. Carr could be in for a monster day- combine his ceiling with his expected ownership and he might just be the piece of the puzzle that wins a tournament.
Running Back
LeGarrette Blount ($5000) - Most people wouldn't consider the league's leading rusher to be a sleeper, especially priced as low as he is. The one thing that will keep him out of a lot of lineups though is his lack of contribution in the passing game. With Tom Brady suspended for one more game and both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett battling injuries, who will start at QB for the Patriots is anyone's guess. Regardless of who plays quarterback this week, the one thing we can count on is another heavy dose of Blount Force Trauma. Blount has averaged 25 carries a game (with no fewer than 22), has totaled four rushing touchdowns, and has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the past two games. What's more impressive is the fact that opposing teams know the Patriots are putting an emphasis on running the ball, yet Blount has only gotten stronger each game. The Bills can be run on, and the Patriots will dare them to stop Blount if they can. The Patriots are favored by 7.5 points with a Vegas-implied score of 25.75 points, suggesting game flow will be in their favor. If the Patriots are leading late, and all indications point toward that being the case, expect Blount to wear down the Bills just as he did the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Texans. Another 100-yard, two-score day is not out of the question.
Dwayne Washington ($3800) - Early indications are that people looking for value in this price range will go after Jordan Howard ($3700) or Carlos Hyde ($4200). Both have their merits (personally, I like Hyde over Howard this week), but the focus of this article is to highlight similarly situated players that are more likely to be overlooked. Washington fits that bill. Yielding touches to Theo Riddick in passing situations, Washington isn't the bell-cow back Hyde or Howard are, but 15 touches is still well within reason and would be more than enough for him to return value. Simply put, the Bears run defense is awful. They were gashed for 199 yards by the Cowboys last week and have yet to hold a team under 100 yards. On the other hand, Washington's 10 carries for 38 yards last week against the Packers doesn't seem like much, but is actually rather impressive when put into perspective (including last week, the Packers have allowed a microscopic 1.8 yards per rush--they are the only team allowing under 3 yards per rush). The percentage of offensive snaps he's played has climbed each week and against a softer Bears front, Washington's violent running style and burst position him for a potential breakout game. Last but not least, Vegas lines hint that game flow could favor Washington more than the comparably priced Hyde or Howard. The Lions are 2.5-point road favorites while the Bears and Niners are both 2.5-point home underdogs.
Wide Receiver
Steve Smith Sr. ($4500) - The receiver formerly known as Mighty Mouse should make for a much lower-owned pivot off guys like Tyrell Williams, Terrelle Pryor Sr., and Jamison Crowder. Smith led all Raven pass catchers last week with 11 targets, 8 receptions, and 87 receiving yards. After a slow start it looks like he's starting to get past the torn achilles he suffered last year. Smith lined up in the slot for 72% of his snaps last week. Should that trend carry over to this week, he's in an excellent spot as he would line up opposite Raiders slot corner D.J. Hayden, who has been dreadful this season, allowing 13 catches on 13 targets for 140 yards (per Pro Football Focus). At just $4500 and a good bet for at least 8 to 10 targets in a game that could very well turn into a shootout, Smith has a better matchup than the similarly priced Pryor who is likely to be keyed on by the Redskins secondary and may even wind up drawing shadow coverage from the likes of Josh Norman.
Ted Ginn Jr. ($3700) - At this price, Ginn is the type of player that can return upside in as little as one play. Kelvin Benjamin is expected to draw the coverage of Desmond Trufant, who held Brandin Cooks to just 2 catches on 8 targets for a paltry 13 yards on Monday night in the Superdome. The Falcons secondary is plenty beatable after Trufant though, and Ginn has more than enough speed to blow by Robert Alford and get over the top of the safeties. He's seen his targets increase each week up to 7 last week, but has shown he only needs one to do damage. In last year's home game against the Falcons, he caught two of three passes, taking both to the house for a total of 120 yards. Guys that can net you double-digit DK points in one play are few and far between. At just $3700, Ginn offers a ton of upside doubling as a receiver as well as a kickoff and punt returner.
Tight End
Eric Ebron ($3700) - There's a lot of potential value at the tight end position this week and paying up for a guy like Olsen or Reed can definitely pay off. But if you're looking for some savings at the position in order to pay up for that stud RB or WR you want to roster, Ebron offers a rare combination of value, consistency, and potential upside on top of what should be pretty low ownership. In the same price range, Jimmy Graham and Coby Fleener's big showings last week are sure to attract some point chasers and Dennis Pitta's volume and Kyle Rudolph's red zone attention both offer undeniable value. Ebron is a solid alternative to those guys as he's quietly reeled in 14 of 20 targets on the season for 168 yards and a touchdown. Of the five guys mentioned in this price range, Ebron has had the most consistent floor and the least volatility from week to week. This screams cash play, but his touchdown upside and plus matchup against the Bears make Ebron a viable GPP play as well and an interesting stacking pivot off Marvin Jones for people rostering Stafford this week.
Defense/Special Teams
Patriots ($3300) - The Patriots probably aren't a true sleeper after we saw them shut out the Texans in primetime last Thursday, but they do get a little lost in the middle of their pricing tier. With Sammy Watkins being placed on IR, the Bills receiving corps is dangerously thin. The offense already ran through LeSean McCoy, but the loss of Watkins makes it even more one-dimensional. Pit one of the lowest implied scores of the week (the Bills currently sit at 18.25) against a ball-hawking defense that's already forced three interceptions and recovered four fumbles, and the Patriots have little reason not to be one of the highest scoring defenses on DraftKings this week.
Texans ($3200) - The Texans are also a very much in play this week and became a little sneakier with the announcement that J.J. Watt has undergone season-ending back surgery. The loss of the reigning Defensive Player Of the Year could scare some people off of the Texans this week when, in reality, they aren't losing much in the way of fantasy value or upside. Watt had been largely ineffective in three games he did play and it was apparent that he wasn't anywhere near 100%. The Texans have a good secondary going up against a weak Titans receiving corps so they should be able to devote more attention to stopping the run. Saying that Mariota has been turnover prone through the first three weeks is an understatement and there's no doubt the Texans will be fired up and looking to bounce back from the beatdown they took last week at the hands of the Patriots.
