Do the San Francisco Giants Need to Rebuild?
The Giants have been an elite, and consistent team since 2009. The team also underwent just four losing seasons in the end of Barry Bonds’ career and after he retired. Since 2009, the Giants have won three World Series rings, made the playoffs four times, and had only one losing season. As impressive and memorable as this team has been over this span, the end of the even year streak and a slow start here in 2017 have everyone questioning the Giants.
So far in 2017, the Giants are off to an 11-18 start, seven games back of the Rockies, and ranks 28th in total runs scored. In addition, the Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner will be out until the All-Star break. The third and fourth starters Jeff Samardizija and Matt Moore are a combined 1-8, both with ERAs over five. All of this absolutely makes for a slow start, and Giants fans who are used to winning are asking what’s next.
The Giants are in the top third of the league in total payroll, and have most of their young stars signed. They are trying to get younger as a team, not resigning veterans Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Hudson, and Jake Peavy. This will be complete after Matt Cain’s option won’t be picked up in 2018 (even though he has pitched well so far this season). The Giants have locked up their whole infield in Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford, and just have Joe Panik left. The only significant free agent next season will be Eduardo Nunez, and they have to extend their ace Madison Bumgarner.
Even with all this progress, a lot will depend if Johnny Cueto decides to stay after this season. Cueto has player options for each of the next four seasons, but has played up to his $21 million price tag. With Madison Bumgarner out, everyone is realizing how much of this team is based on pitching, and Bum and Cueto have been shouldering the weight the last two seasons. This debacle will stress Giants fans out this season. Because of this, I will write out a couple of situations for the Giants this offseason, all of which imply they don’t make the playoffs. I know it’s still early and hard to predict, but for the sake of rebuilding, we can’t assume a ring in 2017.
Situation 1: No Rebuild
I want to start this off by saying this is the most likely choice. The Giants are too proud to rebuild with all the talent in their infield they have signed. The Giants have money to spend, and have their whole infield locked up essentially. What they could do in free agency in 2018, is spend money on a decent pitcher to start behind Bumgarner and Cueto. Even though Cueto is still a question mark, the Giants may choose not to rebuild regardless of his decision. If he stays great, if he leaves, then the Giants will likely target another great starting pitcher.
San Francisco also has a big hole in left field, and Parker, Morse, Hernandez, and Morse all haven’t played well enough to claim it. A player like J.D. Martinez would be a great fit in the outfield and would provide much-needed offense. The Giants could also pick up a good set-up man, as their bullpen hasn’t been good for the second year in a row. These are the three needs the Giants will target in free agency if they don’t rebuild.
Situation 2: Partial Rebuild
Partial rebuilds are always difficult because they differ for each organization and roster. They can also be difficult to predict, as it depends on the front office and how they feel. If the Giants were to sell at the trade deadline or in the off-season, you have to think it will be some of the pitchers and outfielders. The infield is one of the best defensive units in the league, and the Giants have already extended Posey, Belt, and Crawford. Even though Panik could be traded, I don’t see the Giants doing so, even with Kelby Tomlinson behind him. If anyone were to be traded in the 2017 season from the infield, it’s Eduardo Nunez. Nunez has been very inconsistent since coming to SF, and is a streaky hitter and baserunner. Opposing teams will like Nunez, and think they can get more out of him.
The Outfielders is where the Giants will likely consider a trade. Hunter Pence will be an unrestricted free-agent in 2019, and Denard Span has his final club/player option in 2019 as well. Both players are aging, and haven’t been healthy or very consistent in the last two seasons. Both players can provide veteran leadership, good fielding, and an okay bat to any contender. Considering their age and contract situations, these are the hitters the Giants will most likely trade.
When it comes to pitching, all of the questions come back to Johnny Cueto. Cueto has player options from 2018 on, so if the Giants are really struggling and don’t think he’ll return, they could trade him to get value. As a fan, I would hate to see Cueto leave, and I know he loves it here in SF. This will be a tough decision for the Giants’ front office, and you just hope the team will at least have a decent end of the year to help Cueto think he can still win here.
Situation 3: Total Rebuild
This solution is the least likely, considering that a total rebuild just isn’t in the Giants’ D.N.A. With a total rebuild, the Giants’ would trade whoever they could get the most value for, minus Buster Posey. I don’t think the Giants’ fanbase would let the organization survive if they traded Buster Posey. But players like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik would hit the trading block so the organization could see what they would get in return. As I stated above, this situation are incredibly unlikely, and I just can’t see it after all the success the Giants have had in the last eight years.
After examining all of these options, I don’t believe the Giants should rebuild. In addition to this being the most likely outcome, the Giants can address their holes in free agency. If the Giants are sellers at the deadline, expect Eduardo Nunez to be the main player leaving. Even though Cueto will be a huge topic of discussion in that front office, I don’t think you can risk giving away Cueto when he could want to stay with the team. Even though I don’t like the Giants to be contenders this year, I expect them to have an eventful free agency, where they can be in position for a strong 2018 season.
