Three Fantasy Pitchers Ready for Rebound Seasons in 2017
With the eve of a new fantasy baseball season right on our doorstep, it’s time to start planning draft strategies for the 2017 season. Last season, big name hitters dominated the big name pitchers in points formats, to the point where at the end of the year it looked silly to have even drafted pitching before the third or fourth rounds. Obviously this isn’t a feasible plan for any team no matter what scoring system is used, but it really makes you think about which pitchers are worth targeting when drafting.
There are always players that owners will shy away from on draft day because of their struggles the season before. In fact, recency bias is a common tendency for all fantasy players on draft day, but because of this, it might help you draft players that fall further than they should because of a subpar season the previous year. Buying low on draft day is always worth it when considering which pitchers to draft, since pitchers can always be fairly unpredictable. Recency Bias can always negatively affect the draft stock of pitchers who have a lot of other positive factors going in their favor. These aren’t pitchers that will be drafted in the first five or six rounds, but instead are pitchers that you can draft later on and can get great value for based on their draft position.
Here are three pitchers that are likely to rebound in this upcoming 2017 Fantasy Baseball Season.
Dallas Keuchel - Houston Astros
The Former AL Cy Young Award Winner will look to bounce back in 2017 after he got his 2016 campaign back on track in the summer
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It was a disappointing 2016 campaign for the 2015 AL Cy Young Award Winner, as the Astros were relying on Keuchel to be so much for their pitching staff and their team. A fifth round pick in most formats, Keuchel struggled greatly in 2016, finishing the season with a 9-12 record, a 4.55 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP. His ERA was the major contributing factor to his struggles, as it is almost 0.80 runs above his career average. This has caused Keuchel’s draft stock to plummet this season, as ESPN currently has him going 153rd overall, making him a risk definitely worth taking.
Along with his draft position, Keuchel has a lot going for him considering his struggles last season. Keuchel is rehabbing well after missing the last month of his 2016 campaign, and all reports have indicated that the rehab process has gone well and that Keuchel is in excellent shape. The 2015 AL Cy Young award winner also pitched much better in his last two months, finishing with a 3.94 ERA in July and 3.10 ERA in August. Keuchel should also be in line to get more wins this season due how to stacked with young talent the Astros’ lineup is. Keuchel and the rest of the staff also have the benefit of competing in the AL West, which is by far the weakest hitting division in the American League. All of this combined with Keuchel’s low draft position makes him a very worthwhile risk in the fourteenth or fifteenth round of drafts, and could very well provide outstanding value this late in drafts.
Gerrit Cole - Pittsburgh Pirates
Cole will be the main force in the Pirates Rotation this season and he will be a major rebound candidate
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The whole pitching rotation for the Pirates for this upcoming season looks to be an absolute mess after how solid their club has been in recent years. The most solid pitching option looks to be Gerrit Cole, who had an injury riddled 2016 campaign. All reports have shown that Cole is rehabbing very well from his elbow injury, and looks to be the starting day pitcher for the Pirates.
Behind Cole in the rotation, the Pirates have the second year rookie in Jameson Taillon who shows a lot of promise but doesn’t have the record to really step into the role of second in the rotation. Behind him are Ivan Nova and Chad Kuhl, who are only relevant in deep fantasy leagues. This situation puts a lot of weight on the shoulders of a young and rehabbing Cole, who is also in a contract year with the Pirates, is likely to explore free agency next season, and has a chance to be a trade deadline move this season if the Pirates struggle out of the gate.
Cole currently is ranked 83rd overall, and the 21st ranked pitcher in ESPN’s current rankings, which is right about where Cole should be based on risk and reward. Cole is one of the brightest young pitchers in the game, but he is coming off of an injury prone 2016 campaign. Even with this, Cole still only had a 3.88 ERA, but he did struggle with giving up hits and didn’t have the strikeout numbers that he has had throughout his career. However, Cole has a lot of upside at this point in the draft as a SP2 on your roster, and has a good chance in falling below his ADP in most drafts. I really like Cole to bounce back this season in his contract year for Pittsburgh.
Drew Smyly - Seattle Mariners
Smyly will look to correct his 2016 struggles in a much better venue and much easier division
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The former Rays Pitcher was recently traded to the Seattle Mariners, a trade that should really help the 27 year-old’s stats. Smyly is coming off a poor season, where he finished with a 7-12 record, a 4.88 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. If it’s any consolation, Smyly did improve in his last two months, in which he went 4-1 and lowered his ERA on the season by almost half a point. ESPN’s current rankings currently has Smyly going 135th overall and the 38th pitcher off the board, but this is definitely not because of his production from last season.
Fantasy analysts are hoping that a change in venue will help Smyly’s performance this season. Fortunately for Smyly, he is moving from a hitters to a pitchers park, out of the brutal AL East and into the pedestrian AL West, and is joining a team with a solid lineup that should help Smyly safely win ten to twelve games this year. The only downside to all this is that the hope for Smyly due to his change in scenery has caused his draft position to fall by only about ten spots from last year. Even though I don’t personally like drafting Smyly in the thirteenth or fourteenth round, I definitely see him bouncing back this year and he could make for a great sell high candidate part way through the season.
Honorable Mentions include Steven Matz, Carlos Rodon, Michael Pineda, Aaron Nola, Sean Manaea, Robbie Ray, Matt Moore, and James Paxton.
