Why UCF Basketball needs to go small.

Tacko Fall gets a lot of the headlines for UCF. As well as he should after all: Tacko is an impressive 7'6. Oh and he is a defensive juggernaut and block machine. Teams are scared to go into the paint for fear of a humiliating block. Needless to say Tacko has helped UCF rebuild. But what if I told you that UCF's best lineup involves them going "small." At least on the offensive end. That is right boys and girls, UCF offense is actually more efficient with Chad Brown(.994 efficiency rating) than with Fall(.971 effiency). On paper that may not seem like that much of a difference at first glance, but when you dig deeper you come to the conclusion that UCF is better when they go small. Here's the kicker: UCF's version of small ball is not your prototypical version of small ball. In fact due to UCF's length some might not consider it small at all. But for UCF it is. It is this lineup with Chad Brown at the 5 and Tank/AJ Davis at the 4 that UCF's offense becomes smooth and crisp. In fact Dawkins needs to go to it more.

Now before I get the inevitable tweets: no this is not bashing Tacko Fall. Rather it is praising Dawkins ability to play a lineup that has benefitted UCF. In that, however, we need to dissect Tacko vs Chad Brown especially in conference play. A way to show why Brown needs to have his minutes increased. Since the start of conference play, defenses have seemingly figured out how to play Tacko. How to slow Tacko down, which has caused Dawkins to utilize the smaller lineup. But more on that later. So let us look at the advanced metrics to dissect the effectiveness of a lineup with Tacko vs a lineup with Chad Brown. First let us look at Player Efficiency Rating(PER) in conference. Tacko  currently has a 18.7 PER, Chad Brown has a 22.5 PER. So what exactly does that mean? It is a combination of how effective and efficient a player is on both sides. The number we really need to view is PProd or Points Produced. This is a combination of field goals + Assists + Free Throws made. Tacko's in conference is 26, Chad Brown's is 88. So in lay man's terms Brown has produced more points in conference than Tacko. For usage rate in conference there is a slight advantage as Tacko is at 23.1 and Chad is at 24.5. Per 100 possessions, Tacko has a 111.2 offensive rating whereas Chad's is at 134.2. Johnny Dawkins has always emphasized ball security yet Tacko's turnover rate of 19.4 is higher than Chad's at 15.3. That means Tacko has more turnovers than Chad in the American. That is a rather large gap. Now Tacko should have a bigger defensive win share than Chad, right? That would be wrong. Fall's is at 0.2 while Brown's is at 0.3. What do the numbers tell us? That when UCF goes small in the AAC, the Knights have been more efficient and explosive. 

I know some will say "NERD, BASKETBALL ISN'T ABOUT METRICS." So let us use our eyes. It appears that AAC teams have figured out how to play Tacko. Tulane and ECU both fronted Tacko, while having someone lean on his back. This causes Tacko to have hands and arms in his face as soon as he catches it. It eliminates his ability to pass out when he is in the post. Which only leaves one option: go up and try to shoot. When UCF does get a shot off, both Tulane and ECU sent 4 of their payers to crash the boards. This creates a "wall" of bodies and limbs that prevent Tacko from crashing the boards, which is why his rebounding rate is lower in conference play than out of conference play. The only team to not do this was Temple and we all know how that worked out for the Owls. It appears that the other teams in the American have built a defense to stop Tacko and it has been successful. So that has forced Dawkins to go small.

So thank you for that other AAC teams. Dawkins small lineup has been a game changer on both ends of the court. First, let us look at the offense. The small lineup has allowed Dawkins a sort of flexibility that the lineup with Tacko does not. Consider this: against Temple UCF got out and ran with the smaller lineup in. In fact the faster pace allowed the Knights guards the freedom to shoot in transition. So why exactly is that? Well remember that wall of defenders that teams have implemented when Tacko is in the game? Well when Tacko goes out of the game and Dawkins goes small that wall disappears. In fact the smaller lineup allows for UCF to stretch the defense causing other teams to have to play UCF on the perimeter. This leaves the middle open for rebounds which UCF is exceptional at. Since conference play has started Tacko is actually third on the team in rebounds. AJ Davis(11.3 per game) and Nick Banyard(8.7) have more. So the Knights are taking advantage of the extended defense with this smaller lineup in the game. The Knights have also scored more points without Tacko on the floor since conference play started than they have with him in the floor.

Dawkins played and studied under Coach K and has gotten influenced by the likes of Mike Brey. Two of the brightest minds in basketball and proponents of smaller lineups. That is what Dawkins implemented at Stanford during their sweet 16 run: an offense of cuts and open lanes to drive. With Tacko in those lanes are clogged with bodies. This is why the offense looks different with with either Chad Brown or Banyard playing the 5. Below are 2 examples of the sets that Dawkins ran at Stanford and now implements at UCF. As you can see the set is designed for several cuts, motion, and drives. But what I want you to look at is the position of the 4. The 4 always ends up out on the perimeter. The offense becomes a modified triangle with the 4 handling the ball at times. As seen against Temple when AJ Davis, who was at the 4, ended up handling the ball for several possessions. The 5 is also in motion,though not too far away from the post. With Tacko in, these lanes are clogged so hardly any cutting and the defenders are taught to not follow the 4 to the perimeter. Thus the purest form of what Dawkins wants to do is when UCF goes small.

Now onto the defense. It's easy to look at UCF with Tacko and say oh yeah UCF's defense is nothing without Tacko. What with his monster blocks and such. But that would not be true. You see as UConn just exposed, if you drive at Tacko he gets caught flat footed. Oh and Tacko is even 4th on the team in defensive rebounds. It is actually the 2-3 zone that has been the major change that has he,led UCF become ranked in top 5 for defensive efficiency according to KenPom. By going to the smaller lineup and implementing the zone, this offers a flexibility in the lineup. It also allows UCF to put a pressure and easily switch into a matchup zone. Something that having Tacko in does not allow. The smaller defensive lineup also allows for the Knights to press. Again something the bigger lineup does not allow. The Knights actually have a better defensive win share in conference (1.5) with a smaller lineup than having Tacko in the lineup(1.3). 

Now again this is not an article intended to bash Tacko. In fact UCF should continue to play him as that opens up the lineup. However, he is not the be all end all for UCF that some would have you believe. In fact it is the smaller lineup that has benefitted UCF the most. Dawkins needs to utilize it more often.