The Daily Contrarian: HSBC Championship

Degen’s are going communist this week….no not Russia, the other Red Nation…China. The WGC Event Carousel of Disappointment continues as we head to the forbidden country in search of DFS Glory and another small field no cut event. Last year was not a great year for defending champions at their respective events, so far this year is starting off on a different note with JT notching his first victory of the season and a successful defense of his Malaysia title last year. Is it possible we see that trend continue again this week with Russell Knox? Get ready folks this could be the year of the defending champs as Knox looks primed and in good form to defend this week, also I predict this is the year that Keegan wins a golf tournament. He finished 6th last week, just saying.

In case you missed this week’s edition of the Fantasy Golf Degenerates podcast, you really need to go check it out. Yes that’s because I make my 2nd podcast appearance but also because Kenny has a new mike and his angelic voice wafting over the airwaves is the kind of thing you need to hear for yourself in order to truly appreciate! Now, let’s dig into the HSBC slate and see if we can find some solid contrarian options this week.

CIMB Recap: Last week TDC picks had a perfect week and got everyone thru the…nevermind. We have had better weeks for certain but with Hideki and Poulter finishing inside the top 20 at reduced ownership was a bit of a help. Unofficially, TDC hinted at JT in the opening paragraph last week as a good play for 2 weeks in a row. The rest with the exception of Moore finished outside the top 30, so ya…we will be moving on from last week and look forward to a better week in China!

Course: Kenny’s weekly course description is where it’s at! Seriously, if you aren’t reading his article every week…you should reevaluate your PGA process. Check it out here!

T.D.C. Major Stats at Sheshan International:

1. SG: T2G

2. BOB%

3. SG: APP

4. Par 3 & Par 4 Scoring

5. Scoring Average

6. GD %

Top Shelf $12,100-10,000

No official pick from this range this week, let me explain. There is not a single good reason to fade any of these guys this week in any format!!! They are all in excellent form and have the game to win here in this field. A couple of notes: Rory has a new driver and it apparently crushing it more so than ever (wasn’t sure that was possible), DJ has been on vacation with his smoking hot wife since choking away $10 mil to Rory so he should be well rested and motivated to start of 2017 with a victory over Rory and Hideki is sporting a new blacked out Callaway driver (he hoped we wouldn’t notice) that has taken his game up a notch since last year, in the form of a win in Japan and 2nd last week.

That said, pick your favorite and start building a lineup, if you are playing a few then you should find a way to get some exposure to all three in this top tier.

The Upper Middle $9,900-9,000

Henrick Stenson $9,800 (Est 10% Own): Mr. 3 Wood is making his first appearance since the Ryder Cup and for whatever reason people seem to be off the Swede. It could be a bit of uneasiness surrounding his knee injury that could be lingering from the previous season or maybe it is just where he is priced with the other guys in this tier but I am projecting him 2-5% less owned that anyone else in this tier, so ya I’ll take some Stenson in GPP this week. Stenson is #1 in my stats this week 3rd BOB%/1st GD%/15th Par 4/9th Scr Avg/2nd SG APP/4th SG T2G….so ya, what was your reason for not playing Stenson again? Almost forgot about his better than average course history here as well, the last four times out he has gone 11/24/31/13 to average finish of 19th. Bold prediction, Stenson is in the lineup that wins the birdie this week.

Don’t look past Adam Scott in this tier either, he is another great value this week.

Middle of the Road $8,900-8,000

Bubba Watson $8,800 (Est 14% Own): #8 in the world Big Hittin Bubba is back in China where he has won before. He is currently 4th in SG T2G and ranks 16th overall in my stats model. Bubba has not been in the best form of late, so much so that he got passed up for a spot on the Ryder Cup team and was relegated to being a vice captain (but he got a sweet golf cart). While his recent form and overall course fit don’t jump off the page, I am taking a bit of Narrative Street on this one. Bubba was desperate to earn his Ryder cup spot, only to be denied…Bubba is out for redemption this week, you can bet on it! You can’t honestly say that being a part of that team and not being able to play in the most epic Ryder Cup to take place in recent memory hasn’t inspired Bubba to find his game and to fire him up for the season! Even if he doesn’t finish inside the top 20, he should still score plenty of points and meet value.

Brooks Koepka $8,500 (Est 7% Own): The last time we saw Brooks he was ravaging the singles match on Sunday at the Ryder Cup, but before that an unimpressive 32nd and 57th to close out the season on a sore ankle. Brooks might seem out of sorts in China but is no stranger to international play and looking to get his 2017 started off with a nice paycheck. Either the ankle or just the time away seems to have people a bit skittish on rostering Brooks. I’m not, not with stats like these: 5th BOB%/4th Par 4/9th in Scr Avg/37th SG T2G. This is a great spot for Brooks to put together a pair of sub 67 rounds and really help your team out with some birdie streaks.

Rickie Fowler $8,400 (Est 8% Own): Tricky Ricky is back after his now (in)famous Ryder Cup celebration picture of him without a special someone to celebrate with after the US Win at Hazeltine (Maybe it was his stupid haircut maybe not, but I’m sure he found some sympathetic supporters to celebrate with shortly afterwards). Regardless of a significant other, Ricky is primed for a big start to his year. He is obviously coming in with some decent form and to a course where he has had some success in the past with a 17/3/55/25 the last few times around Sheshan. Rickie is also a stats monster for this course ranked 8th in SG T2G/ 14th in Scr Avg/4th in Par 4 scoring and he makes plenty of birdies. Ranked 11th in the world but priced as the 15th most expensive golfer this week, Rickie screams value below $8,500.

Danny Willett $8,000 (Est 7% Own): The brother of PJ Willett returns to competition after an embarrassing Ryder Cup both personally and professionally, in part thanks to his brother who decided to exhibit less than sound decision making with his ill-timed article for the Ryder Cup that wasn’t quite as flattering as the American’s might have liked. I think that instance is what we have to thank for the suppressed ownership and cheap price tag this week. Prior to the “article” and Ryder Cup, Danny was in a good form with a 12th and then a 2nd, which everyone now has forgotten about. Danny also comes up highly ranked in my model this week at 9th overall and 2nd in stats alone. Danny is 12th in BOB%/8th in GD%/9th Par 4/18th in Scr Avg(Euro)/7th in SG T2G, with stats like that, a price tag of $8,000, reduced ownership because everyone hates his brother, and a world golf ranking of 9th…Danny Boy will find himself in plenty of my lineups this week.

Also, don’t forget to pass the pasta with Mr. Italy (Molinari), his last time out was a home country win and he has won at this course in the past.

The Wells $7,900- 7,000

Roberto Castro $7,600 (Est 8% Own): Mr. Castro might not be the longest guy on the course but he should hit every fairway and that could really help this week with L.C.P. in effect more than likely. Castro is coming in 12 overall in my model and 10 in stats rank, even though he doesn’t have any course history here. Think of him like a poor man's Russell Knox this week.  Statistically Roberto is very solid T2G ranked 21st/4th in Par 4/2nd in GD%/ and inside the top 50 in every other important stats this week. Castro is still in good form from last year when he closed out the season really strong with an average finish inside the top 20 for his last 4 events. 

Other key plays in this range: Ross Fisher/Jimmy Walker/Louis Oosthuizen/J.B. Holmes (Bomber, hint hint)

The Scrubs $7,000-Lower

Dean Burmester $6,600 (Est 4% Own): Ok here is my gut play of the week. Burmy is a wild card in almost every sense of the word, we have no stats of any consequence for him other than his 57th in Euro Tour scoring average and his recent form is not all that inspiring. So why should you play him? First, we don’t have a cut. Second, Dean is an up and coming player that can bomb it with the likes of DJ and Brooks. Burmy is the kind of boom or bust player you are looking for in a gpp this week. Very talented but slightly erratic and unpredictable. His length gives him the ability to take some chances on this very scorable course and pay back value with plenty of birdies. I am not all that confident he avoids bogeys, but that just means he will need another birdie to make up for it! I’ll be taking a shot or two on Burmy for a low owned upside play.

Joost Luiten $6,800 (Est 5% Own): The Joost is Loose, another Euro tour darling that has fallen victim to the DK pricing algorithm this week. Joost is one of the premire DK point scorers whenever he tees it up. He hits an absolute ton of greens and his all-around game is strong enough to compete in a field like this. Coming in at 9th in scoring average for the Euro Tour, sporting a win in his last 4 events and a 28th here in 2014, Joost is an incredible value at $6,800 this week.

Jason Kokrak $6,300 (Est 2% Own): J Kok disappointed big time a few weeks ago and based on the ownership projections, people have not forgotten about it! It’s a good thing we don’t have a cut to worry about but instead can focus our attention on his 24th rank in SG T2G and his 46th rank in scoring average on tour. On top of those two stats, Kokrak is coming in 24 in my overall stats ranks this week. That along with his ridiculously low ownership projection is enough for me to take a shot or two on Kokrak.

Bradley Dredge $5,900 (7% Own): If you played Euro tour DFS at all you should recognize Bradley Dredge’s name, he has been a staple on that tour all last year (he fell off a bit towards the end). Dredge is a high risk high reward type of play. He struggles to keep the birdies that he makes and that effects his ability to finish highly and/or win golf tournaments, but it never seems to hurt his ability to score plenty of DK points. His style of play should fit this event well, and if he can rattle off a couple of sub 70 rounds this week he could find himself squarely in reach of a top 15 here in China.

Tastes like Chalk: I like to go against the grain, but just in case you are a bit timid and need a hit of chalk dust to keep you from a pre round tilt fest this week…I got you covered!!!

Rory McIlroy $12,100 (Est 22% Own): The $10 million dollar man makes his first post Ryder appearance and the word is he has a shiny new toy to bash golf balls with (Taylormade M2) and he is ready to wield it against a field of American Ryder Cup winners. Don’t kid yourselves, Rory is pissed about the Ryder Cup and will do his best to extract revenge this week in China. It shouldn’t be too hard for Rory to surge to the front of the pack here, given that he has never finished worse than 11th in his last 4 tries (11/6/4/5). Look out People, Pissed Off Rory is the class of the field and looks to have a home field advantage!

Dustin Johnson $11,900 (Est 19% Own): By all accounts DJ owned the tour in 2016, clinching his first major and then a WGC the week after only to cap it off with a Ryder Cup victory and a player of the year crown…ya he had a busy year last year! This year he arrives in China to kick off his season after taking some time off with Paulina (and probably some party favors), I just can’t shake the feeling that DJ will have trouble repeating his successes of last year early on. There is no question about DJ’s talent and ability in a field like this but his motivation is another question entirely. I’m not saying that he won’t play well or anything but don’t be surprised if DJ has a bit of rust to work off in his first few events back and finishes outside the top 10 this week (disclaimer, I won’t be surprised if he wins either).

About the Author: James is an avid DFS player and golfer. I write and dole out contrarian picks and PGA humor on The Fantasy Degenerates blog. I am high energy and enjoy discussing DFS. Looking to get into a podcast soon. Have a background in economics and analysis, amateur writing, and enthusiast of all great things achieved through pushing human physical and mental abilities.