The Daily Contrarian: Shriner's Children's Open
Degen’s we are finally coming back to a place we all know and love…it’s Vegas Baby!!! I don’t know about you but Vegas is the pinnacle of existence for Degen’s (oddly enough you can’t play DFS there) and I am excited for a high scoring tourney this week at the Shriner’s Children’s Hospital Open. This tournament has plenty of course history dating back to 2008 and is routinely a stop on tour when players get their maiden victory. This is probably due to field, only a few previous winners on tour make the decision to compete in this event each year. That should give you a pretty good indication of the field this week, it is worse than week old street garbage on a hot summer day! However, that should make for an interesting week where virtually nothing goes as planned (just think week 8 NFL all over again) but at the same time provide a huge edge for us Degens and Contrarian Aficionados out there! Without any further ado, let’s get into this week slate for the Shriner’s Open.
HSBC Recap: Last week the Contrarian came through with some solid low owned picks across the pricing spectrum that scored and finished well last week. Stenson came through as the marquee pick with a strong 2nd with Rickie and Hot Pasta posting T-6s, while chalky Rory comes in 4th. Joost Kokrak and Scott all finished inside the Top 20 with Joost & Kokrak being cheap value picks. Overall a really solid week for Team Contrarian, we even nailed the DJ call (not that I expected him to play THAT poorly though).
Course: TPC Summerlin is 7,255 yd Par 71 with Bentgrass greens (Finau is a bent specialist) located just off the Las Vegas strip. The climate means that distance won’t be a problem for anyone and the greens here are among the easiest to hit on tour, so we can expect a lot of birdies again this week. Solid putters are all in play this week and sand save % came up as an interesting stat that I will be using as a tie breaker this week.
Kenny’s weekly course description is where it’s at! Seriously, if you aren’t reading his article every week…you should reevaluate your PGA process. Check it out here! While you're at it, check out Brad's new series The Charts. The link is below and he has some really interesting stuff going on with his analysis each week. Not to mention all the great writers here on The Fantasy Golf Degenerates Blog: @Wedge2424, @ipoddtodds, @Nateknocks, @nelsonadmiral.
T.D.C. Major Stats at TPC Summerlin:
1. SG: T2G
2. BOB%
3. SG: APP
4. Par 4 Scoring
5. Scoring Average
6. SG: Putting
Top Shelf $11,000-10,100:
Francesco Molinari $10,100 (Est 9% Own): Hot Pasta is making the trip out the desert for the first time and coming in on the best form of his career after a Win in Italy several weeks back then a top 10 in a tough field at the HSBC last week. The course should setup fairly well for him from a ball striking and approach stand point, the big question with Francesco is his putter and scoring ability (which he has done really really well these last few weeks). You might wonder why I am writing Francesco up 2 weeks in a row? Simple, think back and you might remember that I wrote up JT the week before he won, then the next week I wrote up Hideki before he won the HSBC the following week…starting to see a pattern? While superstitious and convenient those are not the reasons I am writing him up, Molinari is a solid play this week and will likely go very much under owned from the top tier, making him a great leverage gpp play. Moli has plenty of talent and the current form necessary to take down this incredibly weak field event.
The Balanced Range $9,800-8,000
Jimmy Walker $9,600 (Est 6% Own): Remember when Jimmy Walker won a major? Nobody else does either, Jimmy might not even remember the last birdie he made given his over par performance in China last week. However, Jimmy is coming back to the states and to a course where he has had some success in the past (3 top 15) as well as a few MC (3 years straight 08-10). Jimmy is on record as liking the course and layout, that along with the less than penal driving conditions this week should help Jimmy get back on track and sink some birdie putts (the stronger portion of his game). Jimmy is top 50 in SG:Putting and top 20 in both SG: approach and BOB% all key stats for this week. Look for Jimmy to bounce back this week. There’s also a rumor that he is sneaking in some training sessions with Harmon while he is out in the Desert, maybe he finds a little something and turns it on this week.
William McGirt $8,700 (Est 7% Own): Dirty McGirt was supposed to play in China last week but didn’t feel like bailing on the Sanderson Farmers (Supports the chicken factories in his home town) but wasn’t allowed to play due to some weird WGC rule, so he went to the Sanderson Farmers and just hung out for a while. McGirt should be the most well rested golfer in the field on a course he has made 4 out of 5 cuts with an 8th and 16th, nothing worse than a 33rd. We haven’t seen much of McGirt lately but his latest results are back to back top 20’s prior to his start this week and his game isn’t flashy enough to garner more attention than the likes of Grayson Murray, should help keep his ownership in check and a solid tournament option. While McGirt doesn’t make a prolific amount of birdies he makes up for it in efficiency, rarely giving one back to the field.
Patton Kizzire $8,500 (Est 9% Own): 40% of people, 100% won’t play Kizzie, yes those are the same 40% of people that owned him last week and got nothing but a MC in a perfect scenario. Situations like this are always good options to get back in on a guy that disappointed the previous week, especially when he finished 2nd here last year, stats that fit the course and a run of pretty solid form (except last week). Kizzie’s game is in shape and he gains his strokes on the approaches and with the putter, while the weakest part of his game (the driver) shouldn’t hurt him too badly this week. This is a great bounce back spot for Kizzie to exact some revenge after letting his first real chance at tour victory slip away at the Safeway Open, especially if his normally solid putter gets really HOT!
The Wells $7,900- 7,000
Johnson Wagner $7,700 (Est 8% Own): Even though Johnson got rid of the mustache recently, he remains just as sneaky without the trademark look of his DK picture. Wagner is riding a wave of form that started all the way back at the John Deere and continued through the Safeway (results in order 5/5/22/63/3), his drawback being his course history is less than ideal (that’s why you’re not playing him in cash). I am ranking his form and course fit over his poor course history here given that all his stats for the week are all well above the tour average and his excels is putting and par 4 scoring. Also ranks 14th in the all-around stat category, 11th best in the field, oh ya and he is in the best form of his career!
Aaron Baddley $7,000 (Est 4% Own): Badds finally got back in the winner’s circle last year and then promptly returned to mediocre finishes and missed cuts, until his 10th place at the Safeway. Badds has some decent course history at this track making all 3 of his cuts and never finishing worse than 40th with an 8th mixed in as well. Badds doesn’t have the steady T2G game that we are normally looking for but this course also doesn’t require that to be the sharpest part of your game in order to be successful here, instead you need to score well on the Par 4’s and putt the lights out when you find these larger than average greens this week. Those two things Badds does exceptionally well 14th in Par 4 scoring at 8th in SG: Putting.
Don’t look past Robert Garrigus in this range either, he ranks well for me and knows how to score some serious points if he gets a hot putter this week. He also won’t be highly owned and has great potential to post a solid finish here.
The Scrubs $6,900-Lower
Ricky Barnes $6,300 (Est 2% Own): It seems I can’t go a week without including someone named Ricky these days but I digress. Barnes ranks fairly well for me this week, mainly based on his BOB%, Par 4 scoring and SG: Putting, 39th/14th/26th respectively and some of the better stats for the course in this price range. Ricky has also fared well at this track in the past, making 5 of his last 7 cuts here with 2 tops 25’s mixed in. Not a ton of upside here but a great player to round out your gpp lineups that will really help set you apart and give you a bit of safety, who should score pretty well and can really pay dividends if he makes a few extra putts this week.
Xander Schauffele $6,200 (Est 3% Own): Is it just me or do we have a lot of interesting names coming onto the PGA Tour this year? Either way this one might be the best one out there so far, but that is not the only reasThe daily Contrarianon I like him this week. We really don’t know a ton about this guy from stats perspective yet but what we do know is that this kid can play, sporting the 16th best scoring average and 11th in the all-around rankings. His recent form has been really solid, even as he has made the transition to the PGA Tour. The really intriguing part about this pick is the disparity in his DK pricing and his Vegas odds, one of the largest of the week and that is usually a solid indicator of a player talent being undervalued by the DK pricing algorithm (like Rahm in his 1st 2 tournaments), mix that with his hot form and low ownership…yep I’ll be playing a few lineups with Xander.
Tastes like Chalk: I like to go against the grain, but just in case you are a bit timid and need a hit of chalk dust to keep you from a pre round tilt fest this week…I got you covered!!!
Jon Rahm $9,800 (Est 26% Own): I’ll keep this one simple…Rahm is the chalk. This is his best opportunity to win so far, he is the class of the field and he isn’t coming off any travel….so ya, don’t fade him! Have a great week!
Stay tuned next week as there are big plans and exciting new ideas to incorporate some new data/info into the Daily Contrarian article each week as well as change up the Chalk format at the bottom. Thanks for your support as I continue to try and provide quality, light hearted content that is both enjoyable worth your time to read!
About the Author: James is an avid DFS player and golfer. I write and dole out contrarian picks and PGA humor on The Fantasy Degenerates blog. I am high energy and enjoy discussing DFS. Looking to get into a podcast soon. Have a background in economics and analysis, amateur writing, and enthusiast of all great things achieved through pushing human physical and mental abilities.
