2018 FIFA World Cup: 4 Months Until Draw Predictions
Reporting from Cancun today, everything is rainbows and cupcakes here. Yesterday, I arrived to a bubbling jacuzzi inside our hotel room and chocolate-covered strawberries. I feasted on lamb chops and jasmine rice last night with Fiji water. Today as you read this, I will receive my first ever mani-pedi, trimming my man-card into a snowflake shape as it takes place. 'What does this have to do with the World Cup Qualification', you ask? Nothing. The Road to Russia is quite the opposite scenario for most countries, really.
Gareth Bale, Wales LW/Real Madrid RW
Peru, a nation with a population hovering around 32 million and a current FIFA World Ranking of 14th, is on the outside looking in of the CONMEBOL Qualifiers. They are still yet to face Colombia, Ecuador, and Bolivia, and this team with a guy named Messi on it.
Just last six weeks ago, Wales sat in 13th of the FIFA World Rankings. The absence of one Gareth Bale against Serbia due to two yellow cards brought on a draw in a much-needed win, with Ireland catapulting ahead of Wales in the UEFA World Cup Qualification Group D. If Wales can't recover, they too will see elimination.
Others in the top 32 of the FIFA World Rankings that are poised to miss out on Russia are Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Ukraine, Senegal, Ireland, Bosnia, Ecuador and the Netherlands.
In the #51-100 range, we find South Korea, Panama, Morocco, Russia, South Africa, and Honduras ALL in good position to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, with Russia automatically qualifying as hosts. New Zealand, ranked a mere 122nd, and the Solomon Islands at 154th (of about 200) are also still in the mix. Both just need a win over the other Oceania squad in a two-legged fixture, plus an upset win in the play-off over the fifth-place CONMEBOL finisher (which could very well be Argentina, the #2 team in the world, but nonetheless).
World Cup Qualification is quirky and tends to not make sense sometime, but typically the 32 teams that show up prove that they deserve to be there, no matter the confederation. Next year will be no different. Thirteen European teams plus Russia, five African teams, five Asian teams, five South American teams, and four North American teams will be up to the task of taking home the Jules Rimet trophy for their respective country.
In this article, I created a randomized World Cup Draw based on the 32 teams I believe will qualify for the tournament at this point, using wheeldecide.com. From there, I chose which teams I believe would move on to the next round and using the official FIFA World Cup bracket system, placed the advancing teams into the Round of 16 and chose the winners of each game, through the Final. Please comment whether you agree with my 29 qualifying teams (everyone but Russia, Brazil, and Iran is uncertain), plus the team I chose to win it all. Thank you for your support, more articles coming soon as we u closer to the 2018 World Cup!
Random Draw
Group A - Russia, Egypt, Brazil, Japan (HOST GETS THE GOLDEN BOOT)
Group B - South Korea, Uruguay, Croatia, Spain (SPAIN STOMPED OUT)
Group C - Colombia, Honduras, England, Iran (IRAN DEFENSE DISSIPATES)
Group D - Serbia, Australia, Nigeria, Sweden (SOCCEROOS SOCCER-LOSE)
Group E - Costa Rica, South Africa, Poland, Switzerland (SWISS CHEESE DEFENSE)
Group F - Portugal, France, Chile, DR Congo (CHILE CHOKES)
Group G - United States, Morocco, Iceland, Mexico (ENTIRE AFC SENT PACKING)
Group H - Italy, Germany, Argentina, Belgium (GROUP OF DEATH!)
Group Stage
Group A - Brazil (7) and Japan (5) advance. Russia (4) and Egypt (0) are eliminated. We are entering an era where home-field advantage does not necessarily guarantee a ticket to the knockout round. With Russia and Qatar both having teams ranked outside the top 32, I find it hard to believe either will escape the group stage of their respective home-turf World Cups. Brazil and Japan go through, Russia makes little noise and Egypt goes home silent.
Group B - Croatia (7) and Uruguay (5) advance. Spain (4) and South Korea (0) are eliminated. "Cuss" - the first letter of each team in this group spells out how millions of Spanish football fans will react when they are defeated by Croatia and sent packing. In my first bold prediction of the Random Draw Cup, Spain does not make it out of a group containing Croatia and Uruguay. Sure, they will beat South Korea and possibly manage a draw with Uruguay, but I feel as though Croatia has shown they can hang around with the best and is fully capable of pulling off an upset. Luis Suarez and Uruguay squeeze by, while South Korea comes up empty.
Group C - Colombia (7) and England (4) advance. Honduras (3) and Iran (3) are eliminated. This group intrigues me with its diversity. Four countries representing four different confederations, four very different styles of play. My predicted table goes as follows: Colombia defeats Honduras and Iran, both 2-0, and draws with England 1-1. England demolishes Honduras 5-0, and is upset 2-1 by Iran. Honduras upsets Iran 1-0, sending England through and eliminating Iran with themselves. Low-scoring fixtures, but exciting nonetheless.
Group D - Serbia (9) and Sweden (6) advance. Nigeria (3) and Australia (0) are eliminated. The first letter of every country in this group spells out "sans" meaning without in Latin, possibly signaling this group is sans top-16 worthy competition, but this is how the World Cup cookie crumbles. 9-6-3-0, no draws. Serbia defeats everyone, Sweden defeats Nigeria and Australia, Nigeria defeats Australia. Nothing to see here.
Group E - Poland (9) and Costa Rica (4) advance. Switzerland (3) and South Africa (1) are eliminated. Costa Rica upsets Switzerland in stoppage time and comes back from down 1-0 to winning 3-1 against South Africa in the last fifteen minutes to become a sort-of unexpected Cinderella. Costa Rica's late-game heroics will be one of the Random Draw Cup tournament headlines. Switzerland is sent home earlier than anticipated and Poland is through cleanly.
Tim Howard, US GK/Colorado Rapids GK
Group F - France (9) and Portugal (2) advance. Chile (2) and DR Congo (2) are eliminated. In a seemingly unrealistic scenario, Portugal advances to the knockout stage with just two draws and a loss with their EURO 2016 co-finalists France. Another three-way tie for second comes in the form of three draws between Portugal, Chile, and the DRC. On the final Group F match-day, France defeats Portugal 2-1 and Chile forces fifteen corner kicks on the DRC, but an early Chilean red card is crucial and neither team finds the back of the net in ninety minutes. The French crush the DRC 6-1 and handle Chile 4-2 before this, sending Portugal through based on goal difference.
Group G - United States (5) and Iceland (4) advance. Mexico (4) and Morocco (3) are eliminated. In another exciting group, the United States claims first place with just five points and Iceland maneuvers through a wild final match-day to upend Mexico and Morocco for second place. Here's the scenario: Mexico starts the day with 4 points, Morocco with 3, the US with 2, and Iceland with just 1. The US, facing elimination with a draw, go up 2-1 on Morocco in the first half, and with Morocco attacking the entire second half, Tim Howard saves the day and the US score a late ticket-puncher to the knockout stage in a 3-1 victory. Mexico, the clear favorite to defeat Iceland, is also ahead two on goal difference, but Iceland would advance if tied in goal difference due to their higher number of goals scored thanks to a 4-4 shootout with Morocco. In a game where Iceland needs to win by two over Mexico, they score two goals in the last five minutes of regular time and pull out a 3-1 victory to advance.
Group H - Germany (6) and Argentina (6) advance. Italy (3) and Belgium (3) are eliminated. In the clear '2018 Random Draw Cup Group of Death', oddly no draws take place. Germany over Italy and Belgium, but Lionel Messi and Argentina exacts their 2014 World Cup Final revenge. Argentina also defeats Belgium, but allows a Balotelli hat trick and falls to Italy. Belgium acquires their three points by defeating Italy, sending the 2014 World Cup co-finalists through from the Group of Death.
Knockout Stage (Left Half of Bracket)
Brazil 2, Uruguay 1 - The Brazilians pick up right where they left off in 2014, advancing to the quarterfinals for the seventh straight World Cup on a Neymar penalty kick.
Colombia 3, Sweden 2 - 24 years after Andres Escobar's infamous own-goal sparked murder following the 1994 World Cup group stage, Colombian football is finally back in full swing. In just their second appearance since then and sixth appearance all-time, Colombia makes back-to-back quarterfinals against Brazil.
Poland 1 (4), Portugal 1 (2) - Robert Lewandowski and Poland upset the 2016 EURO Champs and advance to the quarterfinals on penalties. Cristiano Ronaldo misses a crucial penalty kick in his penultimate World Cup that sets up a story-line for what could be his final run at the Jules Rimet trophy in 2022 at age 37.
United States 1, Argentina 0 - Unfortunately, no Messi-Ronaldo storyline to tell of here. Maybe next time. Clint Dempsey and crew upset Argentina in style, with Tim Howard coming up big-time in the clutch. A second-half stunner from Christian Pulisic will be all the buzz heading into the quarterfinal against Poland. Also notable, this win means the group winner from Groups A-D defeated the runner-up from the paired group in each instance.
Brazil 1, Colombia 4 - The Coffee Growers advance further then ever before in the World Cup, sending the big dogs packing early. In a similar event to the 7-1 Germany trouncing of Brazil in 2014's semi-finals on Brazilian turf (but with less significance this time around), James Rodriguez and squad force the football world to respect Colombia once again.
Poland 0, United States 3 - As with James Rodriguez, Jordan Morris is ready to make the jump to international stardom. A two-goal quartefinal against world-power Poland could do just that. In the final 2018 World Cup match in the Kazan Arena, the United States will clinch their second World Cup semi-final bid.
Colombia 0 (1), United States 0 (3) - A new era of American football has arrived. Bruce Arena and the US advance to their first-ever World Cup Final.
Knockout Stage (Right Half of Bracket)
Croatia 2 (3), Japan 2 (5) - Japan advances to their first ever World Cup quarterfinal on penalties. Shinji Okazaki scores one of the goals in regular time and Yuya Osako finishes the other.
Serbia 0, England 1 - England's Jamie Vardy scores the lone goal of this match, sending England through to the quarterfinals to take on the Japanese for a spot in the semi-finals.
France 2, Costa Rica 1 - The French prevail over the new World Cup Cinderella squad, Costa Rica. An early goal by Costa Rica defender Cristian Gamboa is quickly suppressed by an Antoine Griezmann screamer, and a second-half set piece goal, again by Griezmann, finishes off The Ticos.
Germany 3 (4), Iceland 3 (3) - In an exciting Round of 16 all-UEFA draw, Germany comes back from down 2-0 early to even 2-2 at half, before another Iceland goal and another German goal before the sixtieth minute. Few attacks with initiative take place in the last half-hour of regular time, and no one can break the tie in extra time. Germany goes through on PK's.
Japan 0, England 2 - England easily advances past Japan on twenty-four corner kicks and no bookings, forcing a UEFA-appearance in the World Cup Final by either England or the winner of France/Germany.
France 1, Germany 0 - Les Bleus upend the reigning World Champs on a Tim Howard-esque performance by Hugo Lloris and an extra-time stunner by Paul Pogba.
England 2, France 3 - England loses. France moves on. The United States waiting in Moscow. With the home country rocking the same colors, there will be red, white, and blue galore for this World Cup Final.
2018 FIFA World Cup Final
Paul Pogba of Manchester United walks onto the pitch before a meeting with Real Salt Lake of the MLS.
United States 1, France 2 - After Christian Pulisic put the Yanks up early in the second half 1-0, Benzema and Dembele etch their names into French football history with World Cup-winning goals. Jones, Howard, Dempsey, Beasley, and Beckerman all announce their retirement from international football on the American side. On the French side, the ripe, young French squad sees no significant departures for Qatar 2022 as they attempt the repeat.
Special Draw + Random Draw Similar Fixtures
After completing my own specialized draw based on rankings and confederation diversity, I found five similar draws between the randomized draw and my specialized draw. Here's a breakdown of those five, very realistic group stage match-ups we could see next year:
Brazil 3, Japan 0 - After a disappointing semi-final loss last year, the already-qualified Brazilians are playing with a purpose. Neymar may be deciding between the stripes of Barca and the blue PSG, but one color we will see him in for sure next year: yellow.
Croatia 3, South Korea 1 - In the random draw, these two are paired with Spain and Uruguay. In my specialized draw, the two pairs are not in the same group so not every fixture is the same between the four teams, but if you're betting on four specific teams to make any one group, put your money on CUSS.
Spain 2, Uruguay 2 - So much talent on these two squads but in my random draw, Croatia and South Korea are part of this group, and Spain finishes third.
Australia 1, Sweden 2 - Tim Cahill and the revitalized Socceroos come off their unimpressive World Cup trip in 2014 seeking revenge against...Sweden. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and crew may have not qualified since 2006 (thanks to Portugal both times), but Sweden ranks higher than Australia in the pecking order everyday of the week and the Swedes are poised to make a run at the Group of 16th this year.
Morocco 1, United States 3 - The USA have seen Ghana in the past two World Cups, but they will meet a different AFC team this time around. Morocco has not qualified for the World Cup since finishing 18th in 1998, but I believe it all lies on a November 6th away match with Ivory Coast to decide the winner of the group, depending on their other outcomes with Gabon and Mali. Ivory Coast currently leads Morocco by two points in the standings, but that could quickly change in the coming months.