Ohio State/Wisconsin preview
It’s the game Wisconsin fans have been waiting for since December 2014. The last time these two teams met on the football field, Ohio State embarrassed the Badgers 59-0 in the Big Ten Championship game. That win jump started the Buckeyes to a National Championship run. Just days after that game, Gary Andersen left to become the coach at Oregon State and Barry Alvarez led the Badgers to an Outback Bowl victory over Auburn. Fast forwarding to 2016, Wisconsin is playing its first home game since Sept. 17 as the No. 8 Badgers take on No. 2 Ohio State tomorrow at Camp Randall Stadium. This is the second College Gameday game involving Wisconsin this year as the show was also held at Lambeau Field Sept. 3 for Wisconsin’s 16-14 win against LSU. The Badgers are expected to get offensive lineman Jon Dietzen and running back Bradrick Shaw back, but both linebacker Vince Biegel and cornerback Natrell Jamerson were ruled out earlier this week. It should be a terrific game in Madison.
When Wisconsin runs the ball...
Getting Dietzen back will be a big help, but the Badgers running game still is not back to Wisconsin standards. Bucky is 78th (out of 128) in rushing in yards per game and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, which is 107th. Ohio State is certainly not the team that you can get things right running it against, as the Buckeyes are 9th in the country in rush yards allowed per game with 97.3. That stat improves to 5th when it comes to yards per carry, as the Buckeyes have allowed just 2.7 yards per attempt this season and the Ohio State defense is the only one in the country that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. In other words, Corey Clement, Shaw and Dare Ogunbowale will have tough sledding against this defense.
Edge: Ohio State
When Wisconsin passes the ball...
After having a nice starting debut at Michigan State, Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook was not good at Michigan in his last showing. He missed open throws and was forcing passes. That did not work against the Wolverines and it won’t work against Ohio State. Against Michigan, Hornibrook threw for just 88 yards. It goes without saying that he will need to be more productive tomorrow night. Michigan is No. 1 in the country in pass yards allowed per game and now, Hornibrook faces the defense that is No. 5 in that category. Not only has Ohio State just allowed 148.6 passing yards per game, but it is also tied for fourth in the country with 10 interceptions and the Buckeyes are second in the country in opposing quarterback passer rating. In other words, Ohio State’s defense is pretty good. Of those 10 interceptions I mentioned, four are by sophomore safety Malik Hooker, which is tied for the most in the country. Since Urban Meyer took over at Ohio State, five freshman quarterbacks have started against the Buckeyes. Those quarterbacks combined to have a 52.7 percent completion percentage with four touchdowns and six interceptions. Hornibrook will need to show up in a big way in order for Wisconsin to have a chance.
Edge: Ohio State
When Ohio State runs the ball...
This will be a unique challenge for Wisconsin. The Badgers have faced a spread offense this year when they faced Akron, but the Zips are nothing compared to Ohio State. This will be a great matchup, as the Buckeyes are ranked third in rushing yards per game and the Badgers are ranked sixth in opponents rush yards per game. Something has to give. While Ohio State has not allowed a rushing touchdown this year, the Badgers have only allowed two, which is tied for second in that category. Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett also can run the ball. He has run the ball at least 16 times in three of Ohio State’s games this year, including 26 last week against Indiana. This will be a fun matchup to watch and Wisconsin needs to win this in order to have a chance.
Edge: Push
When Ohio State passes the ball...
Barrett is having another very nice season, but not nearly as good as his sophomore season. However, he is proving to Meyer that he should have been the full-time quarterback last season. Barrett has an impressive 15 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions on the season. Ohio State is 84th in the country in passing yards per game, which is to be expected since the Buckeyes are a running team and are generally beating opponents into the ground early in the game. However, Brutus can beat you through the pass as well. Noah Brown, who had four touchdowns in a win at Oklahoma, is a terrific wide receiver. The leading receiver for the Buckeyes is running back Curtis Samuel, who has 23 receptions on the year for 345 yards. However, more than half of his receiving total came in the week one victory over Bowling Green. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is 35th in the country in pass defense. The Badgers have allowed just over 200 passing yards per game and have picked off seven passes. Wisconsin also has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times and puts constant pressure on them, even if they don’t result in a sack. Even without Biegel against the outstanding Michigan offensive line, the Badgers sacked Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight four times. The Badgers will need to put the heat on Barrett and force him into poor decisions.
Edge: Push
Special Teams
Ohio State is perfect in field goals, and missed one extra point in 36 chances. Wisconsin has been solid as well, only missing one field goal and one extra point on the year. However, most of that was with starting kicker Rafael Gaglianone, who is out for the rest of the year with a back injury. Wisconsin is 122nd in both punting average and net, while Ohio State is top three in both categories. Ohio State and Wisconsin are even in punt returning, but the Buckeyes are one of the top teams in kick returning. Ohio State has the edge here.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall
Nobody is expecting Wisconsin to win, and many are expecting a blowout. If you look at the stats, the Badgers will not be able to keep it close. Both defenses are outstanding, but Ohio State’s offense is top-notch, while the Badgers offense is struggling. However, this game is at Camp Randall Stadium. The atmosphere for a night game is second to none. In the words of ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit, “This atmosphere at night is as electric and intimidating as any that there is in the country.” Even when Ohio State was really good and Wisconsin was mediocre at best in 2008, the Buckeyes still barely won. When the underdog has a chip on its shoulder and can create some turnovers, anything can happen. Somehow, someway, the Badgers will pull it out. This is a night game at home and Bucky has had two weeks to prepare, not to mention College Gameday is in town. The players will be pumped at the crowd will be jacked. It should be a fun game to watch.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Ohio State 17
