Can the Raptors Keep It Close? What To Expect, Key Player to Watch, and Other Information on the 2019 NBA Finals

With the NBA Finals tipping off at 8 EST on Thursday, the Warriors will be looking to win their 4th title in the last 5 years, versus a Toronto that was not expected to even contend. With Golden State being the heavy favorite, do the Raptors stand a chance? Will Steph Curry finally win the haunted Finals MVP he has been searching for since 2015? How does Nick Nurse plan to stop the splash brothers? The series has many unanswered questions, that are about to be answered.

How the Raptors Got Here, and What Can We Expect?

Defeated Magic 4-1, Defeated 76ers 4-3, Defeated Bucks 4-2.

The Raptors have outplayed all expectations, and are in the teams first ever NBA finals, which in itself is outstanding. The Raptors arguably beat the best team in basketball in the 60 win Milwaukee Bucks. The momentum for them is through the roof, however is the talent? Kawhi Leonard is playing the role that Lebron played in Cleveland. Scoring 31.8 ppg, and 8.8 rpg is incredible for a man who sat out 31 games due to “load management”. Leonard has shown throughout the playoffs that he can single handedly carry the Raptors, and keep them within reach of the Larry O'Brien trophy. A big question for the Raptors is how will the inexperience of this big of a stage impact them?

Leonard has won a championship during his reign in San Antonio, and even won the Finals MVP. Siakam, Lowry, Gasol, and everyone else excluding Ibaka and Green has never played on this big of a stage in the NBA. Despite Siakam’s so-so Eastern Conference Finals performance, expect him to have a larger role in the Finals, as Nick Nurse will look for him to produce if Durant does comeback full strength to guard Leonard. Gasol will have it easier than anyone in Toronto, as he will be playing down low versus a young Jordan Bell. Gasol can use his jumper to stretch the floor and let the guards drive and force Bell to step out and guard Gasol beyond the paint. Lowry will arguably have the toughest challenge. Nurse should expect Lowry to be able to perform at the highest level like he did in the previous series, while simultaneously guarding Curry every possession of the game. The Raptors should be able to contend and give the Warriors a run for their money, but it will be a tough task, especially if Durant and Cousins do return as expected for the already incredible Steve Kerr coached team.

How the Warriors Got Here, and What Can We Expect?

Defeated Clippers 4-2, Defeated Rockets 4-2, Defeated TrailBlazers 4-0

Since Durant went down with a strained calf injury, the Warriors have proven yet again that they can be the most dominant team in basketball, when they want to be. After a first round series that went to six, many fans and experts questioned if this was not the Warriors year. However, like usual, the Warriors, led by a dominant Steph Curry and Draymond Green have been able to perform like it was 2015 again. The Warriors are going to have to rely on a few things until we get notice that Durant and Cousins do resume action. First is Steph Curry. Curry is arguably playing his best basketball since the 2014-2015 season, when he unanimously won the Kia MVP award. Curry is going to have to prove that he can still perform day in and day out, by leading the warriors offensive firepower for as long as Durant is out. The next thing the Warriors will need to rely on is ball movement. The Warriors in their last 32 games without Durant are 31-1, and 5-0 this postseason alone. What the Warriors did in previous years is space the floor, while also effectively using ball screens, and ball swings to shift the defense. When Green screens Curry, it typically allows the opposition to hesitate and play out on Curry, which then typically grants the Warriors free shots as the ball can be dumped in on the roll to Draymond, or swung around the arc to Klay, or even Iggy. Lastly, the Warriors bench is going to need to at least play average to keep the Warriors from being near elimination. Though the bench is significantly inexperienced, Quin Cook, Alfonzo Mckinnie, and Kevon Looney are going to be needed to impact the game every time they touch the floor. Veterans like Shaun Livingston and Andrew Bogut are going to have to try and stop the best bench in the league, led by Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell. The Warriors are playing the best basketball they have played this season, but if they go backwards once Kevin Durant and Demarcus Cousins come back it may not be good. For now, the Raptors should be hesitant to go up against this team.

Key Players To Watch

Steph Curry: This pick does not come as a surprise to any. In the previous sweep of the Portland TrailBlazers, Curry averaged 36.5 ppg, along with 7.25 apg Via ESPN. Curry has shown throughout the postseason his consistency to score the basketball, while being able to draw enough attention to allow the rest of the team to get rhythms going. Though all eyes will be on Curry with Durant being sidelined with a strained calf, Curry should still be able to score at will against any switch that the Raptors bring against him. What will be interesting to see if how Curry fares with Kyle Lowry in his grill all game. With the third highest defensive real plus minus per ESPN, Lowry is going to have to use this defensive tenacity every second he can on Curry, to hope Lowry can rattle him.

Kawhi Leonard: Like Curry, Leonard has been the heart and soul of the 6. Leonard has been putting up 31.8 ppg along with 8.8 rpg throughout the playoffs, which includes a ridiculous corner fade to win game 7 versus the Philadelphia Sixers earlier this postseason. After dismantling the Bucks, it will be interesting to see how Leonard is guarded by Golden State. It is likely Steve Kerr puts Andre Iguodala on Kawhi, similar to the defensive scheme used on Lebron and the 2015 Cavaliers. Leonard should still score at will, and be able to keep the Raptors in the game at least. What should be interesting to look forward to is when Durant returns, to see how a 1v1 matchup of the two should play out. Expect Leonard to out play an injured Durant and showcase why he is not only an elite defender, but an elite scorer as well.

Draymond Green: Despite being the fifth scoring option throughout most of the regular season, Draymond Green has decided to show up and play his best basketball yet. After Durant went down, Green has been averaging near a triple double, at 15 ppg, 9 rpg, and about 8.5 apg. Green has shown that his ability to defend all 5 positions, as well as play all 5 positions offensively has been able to spread opposing defenses out, and allow for the guards to use isolation drives more often. When Draymond has the ball, it is hard to tell what he will do. With a 35% 3 point percentage since Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals, along with the playmaking vision of a point guard, it leaves defenses guessing on where to play him, and how to react to his next move. As for the defensive side of the ball. Draymond should be tenacious, getting into the Toronto heads, along with showcasing his athleticism and versatility to keep the best of the best for the Raptors in check. After calling himself the best defender in the NBA today, expect Green to be hungrier than ever.

Fred VanVleet: This player may be unheard of, but he has arguably been most crucial to the Raptors success lately. Fred VanVleet, similarly to Green, started off the playoffs a bit shaky. In fact, the Wichita State product was shooting a mere 33.7% from three point range. Then, his wife gave birth to their son. Since? VanVleet has averaged triple what he was averaging prior, along with an 87% clip from behind the arc. The X-factor that Toronto is going to need to continue the high level play when Lowry, and Danny Green need breaks. If VanVleet shows up, the 6 may be able to contend for what could be the first championship for the franchise. If he does not show up to play, however, we can expect guys like Shaun Livingston, and Quin Cook to stand out and produce significant numbers to allow for Curry and Thompson to relax, and rest up for when it matters most. Keep an eye on the former most improved player throughout this contest.

Andre Iguodala: He hasn’t been here once, or twice, or three times, but rather five times. Andre Iguodala or Iggy has been known to step up and fill a void for the Warriors in playoff times when they need him most. After winning Finals MVP in 2015 after an outstanding performance defending Lebron, it is going to be interesting to see how he defends Leonard. As he regresses due to age,

Iggy is going to have to force Leonard into shooting threes, along with contested pull up jumpers, where Leonard has been struggling during the playoffs. The Sixers were able to effectively utilize these weaknesses in Leonard’s game, as Leonard did have some poor shooting stretches. Former Arizona wing is going to have to flashback to Nuggets Iggy, and showcase his ability to score from anywhere on the floor. If Iggy can indeed do this, the Warriors parade looks like it’s bound to be back in the bay.

What Effect Can the Outcome Have on Durant and Leonard?

Two of the largest questions that are being thrown into the air are where Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard are going to be playing basketball in 2020. This can fluctuate depending on the outcome for Leonard, but Durant is a goner regardless. Whether this goes in the Warriors favor, or the Raptors, Durant will be presumably heading to New York to join the Knicks. First reported by Ric Bucher, he noted that Durant has put his house in the Bay up for sale, and has also purchased a living space in the city. This may not be any given clue, however in Durant’s book KD it is stated that Durant is a “disconnect” in the Warriors locker room. Durant is bound to change his legacy once again, and all signs point towards New York, despite the Clippers heavy push for the 6’10 wing.

In Leonard’s case, the winning team will definitely sway him. If Golden State is celebrating after the series, Leonard should be packing his luggage and hopping on a plane straight to Los Angeles. With near 2 max contract slots, the number one option potential, along with the location, the Clippers have everything going for them to convince Leonard and others to play for them. Leonard has been known to have lots of interest in returning home to LA, but has also expressed his want to be the superstar of his team. In Toronto, that has been exactly his role. If they do win, I do see Leonard staying, because it would be difficult to leave a championship team, especially when Drake is backing you.

What’s Next For Both Teams After The Finals?

The most important thing for the Warriors is going to be Free Agency, where Durant, Thompson, and Cousins are going to hit the market. Despite having bird rights on Durant and Thompson, it will be hard to be able to lure both back to Golden State has owner Joe Lacob has previously said that he would not prefer to enter the luxury tax. Durant is an expected goner, while Klay has said multiple times in interviews with ESPN, Bleacher Report, and other news sources that he would love to rejoin the Warriors and eventually retire in the Blue and Gold. Cousins can resign for the mid level exception, however he will likely test his waters and see if a team will offer him a near max deal, which is also unlikely. The Warriors will own the 28th and 58th picks. Some experts expect the Warriors to target a big, or a wing player, with the likes of Admiral Schofield, Matisse Thybulle, and Chuma Okeke being names that could be the next member of the franchise. This offseason for Coach Steve Kerr can change the course of NBA history for years.

The Raptors sole focus starts and ends with Kawhi Leonard. Depending on how they do Leonard is predicted to consider the Clippers and Raptors, along with other teams who are near irrelevant in the sweepstakes. If Leonard does return to Toronto, expect them to be the heavy favorite in Vegas to win the East next year. If he does not return, Masai Ujiri may look to start a rebuild around Pascal Siakam and other assets from trading the likes of Kyle Lowry, and Marc Gasol, assuming Gasol opts into his player option. After Kawhi, the Raptors own pick 29 in the NBA draft. A player that immediately comes to mind as a high risk, high reward type player is Carson Edwards out of Purdue. Edwards can provide scoring at the two to hopefully compliment Kawhi and Lowry, giving them a nice backcourt for not only the present and the future. Mr. Leonard’s free agent decision will make or break the franchise as whole, similar to Golden State.

Prediction?

Though the Raptors on paper look like they may not be able to contend, they have all the right assets. An offensive wizard in Nick Nurse, the Golden State Warriors beater in Kawhi Leonard, and a defense and bench that can keep them from being destroyed. This series is expected to not be close, but it should be closer than most think. Game 1 Thursday is going to set the tone for each team. In the end, especially if Durant and Cousins return, the Raptors are one star short of getting this done, which is why I feel the Warriors will get this done in 6. What I predict to happen is we will see the Warriors come out rolling at home to open up the series, however Durant will return for game three, and disrupt the chemistry that was rebranded since Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Toronto will win game 3 at home, but fall in game 4 close. In a must win game 5, expect Toronto to play their best hoops, and make fans questioning. However, Golden State will not blow a 3-1 lead this time, and pull through in a back and forth game 6. Kawhi is close to doing it himself, but a team of at least 4 hall of famers may be too hard to stop. Golden State will be crowned your 2018-2019 NBA champions, for the third consecutive year.