Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks - Tuesday, August 1
Welcome back my fantasy baseball friends. Tuesday presents us with a 15-game slate and not only do we get a big selection of elite pitchers but we also get another series in homer-friendly Coors Field. Let's dive in and take a look at my top pitchers and stacks for tonight.
STARTING PITCHERS
Max Scherzer (DK-$13,200 / FD-$11,500)
It's not as cut and dry as it usually is when Scherzer and Sale are on the mound. Both have tough matchups on paper facing two of the hottest teams in the league lately but I lean Mad Max for a few reasons. First of all, he and the Nationals are the bigger favorites(-210) by a wide margin and Max is backed up by a more power and complete offense which definitely helps the win potential. Max, although on the road vs. Sale at home, gets the better park in Miami and faces a team that has struck out 4% more than the Indians over the last 14 days and also right around 4% more when looking at the splits. Both Max and Sale have elite upside any time they step on the mound but tonight I lean Max in all formats while I would reserve Sale to GPP only where he is likely to be under-owned.
Carlos Martinez (DK-$8,800 / FD-$9,100)
Car Mart is definitely not a safe option for cash games as he has been wildly inconsistent this season. For GPP's, however, I like the combination of elite upside mixed with possible low ownership on a full slate. He enters the night with a 9.59 K/9 rate and although he has allowed 5 earned runs in three of his last five starts he has managed to keep the ERA and xFIP in the mid 3 range. The issue with Car Mart is the walks as he gives out around 3.5 free passes per nine innings and has seen his HR/FB rate jump 5% this season(15.6%). He does face a powerful Brewers team that sits Top 10 in hitting vs. righties but they also strikeout 25.3% of the time in that split. Even better, they have been the worst team in the league over the last 14 days with a .285 wOBA, 68 wRC+, and a disgusting 27.8% K rate.
Also Consider: Marcus Stroman(Blue Jays biggest favorite of night)
STACKING OPTIONS
Colorado Rockies vs. Steven Matz (NYM)
The Rockies return home after a seven-game road trip and will look to recapture their offensive/winning ways from last homestand where they won 5 of 6 and scored 61 runs. They are in a great spot tonight to kick off the series with the Mets who will start Steven Matz tonight. Once a highly touted prospect, Matz has struggled big time in 2017 with a 5.51 ERA, and 4.55 xFIP while striking out just over six batters per nine. Things were looking up at the start of July when he shut out the Nationals for seven innings but that was the end of the up trend. In four starts since, he has given up 34 hits in 13.1 innings(WOW) with 21 earned runs and four long balls. He now has the challenge of dealing with a team that absolutely crushes left-handed pitching and hits in the best hitters park in the league. Stack the Rockies despite the chalk status as they sit with 10% more implied runs than any other team tonight.
Top Hitters to Target: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ Lemahieu, Trevor Story
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Mike Pelfrey (CWS)
After the two teams in Coors tonight, the Blue Jays and Yankees are up next in implied run totals. While the Yankees have been the much better offense this season, they also come a much higher cost making them tough to fit with an elite pitcher or two tonight. Enter the Blue Jays who have disappointed many this season(especially me as a die-hard fan) but the good news is that outside of Justin Smoak they all come at a nice value. Seriously, Josh Donaldson is cheaper than Ezekiel Carrera tonight on DraftKings. The decision comes down to Smoak vs. Morales at first base and it really depends on the pitcher you choose. My strategy is normally to double up my Blue Jays stacks and get exposure to both. The Jays haven't been winning consistently but they have been scoring runs lately. Over their last eight games they have scored 43 runs(5.4 per game) and sit tied with the Nats with 14 home runs over the last seven days.
Top Hitters to Stack: Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista
LINK TO THE STARTING PITCHING CHEATHSEET
