2016 American League Wild Card Game
The playoffs are finally upon us as in this first game, the American League Wild Card Game, two heavy weights will go at it as the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays square off in Toronto. These two teams can absolutely slug baseballs, but they are also two different squads. Both faced each other 19 times this season with the Blue Jays winning 10 of those contests. So to sort of say that this is an even matchup, well, you would be correct as honestly it is hard to see who might have the edge.
So in this preview we first look at the Baltimore Orioles roster.
Pitchers
Brad Brach
Zach Britton
Dylan Bundy
Brian Duensing
Mychal Givens
Donnie Hart
Tommy Hunter
Ubaldo Jimenez
Darren O’Day
Chris Tillman
The Orioles are lucky that in this game that they get to use as many relievers as possible. There are some starters here, but they spent time in the bullpen at some point and it only strengthens it even more. The O’s bullpen is the best, if not then one of the best, in the American League so if the game does become a battle of bullpens, they are going to feel comfortable and like their chances even more. Brach, Hunter, O’Day, and Givens are all dominant relievers and very reliable. O’Day has a funky delivery as he is a submarine style pitcher which will make it hard for Blue Jays batters to read what type of pitch is thrown at them. Duensing will be a left handed specialist for this game. Hart has been a pleasant surprise for the team as he has put in some shutdown appearances. I saw him pitch last year when working for the Orioles High-A team, Frederick, and he was a very reliable reliever. Bundy has been in the rotation of late after Tillman went on the disabled list, but he was very good in the bullpen as his stuff is very good and highly regarded. Jimenez had a bad first half, but was outstanding in his last seven starts. He spent some time in the bullpen which seemed to revitalize him. Those two could pitch in long relief if needed. Britton is a possible Cy Young candidate as he went 47-for-47 in save opportunities and posted a 0.54 ERA. He has just downright nasty stuff.
Tillman will be the starting pitcher in tonight’s game. He is considered to be the team’s “ace.” However, it was a tale of two halves for Tillman in 2016. In the first half he was very good, but after a stint to the disabled list, his ERA was 4.45. Not great, but it isn’t anything to worry about. He finished with a 16-6 record and 3.77 ERA for the 2016 season, but if he can pitch like he did before the injury, the Orioles are in good shape. In four starts against the Blue Jays this season, he is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA.
Catchers
Matt Wieters
Caleb Joseph
Wieters used to be one of the best catchers in the league before he needed Tommy John surgery. He was an All-Star this season and was still productive. Joseph is a very good backup who is also capable of starting. Strong defensive player as well.
Infield
Pedro Alvarez
Chris Davis
Ryan Flaherty
JJ Hardy
Manny Machado
Trey Mancini
Jonathan Schoop
Alvarez is a one dimensional player as he is all about the power numbers. He hits right handed pitchers well and will likely be the designated hitter in tonight’s game. Davis has so much power its almost ridiculous and always seems like he comes up in the clutch. Flaherty is a reliable bench player who is versatile being able to play almost seemingly everywhere on the field. Hardy is still a very good shortstop who gives a solid effort at defense and is still a dangerous hitter. Machado is one of the best players in baseball as he mans the hot corner (third base). Mancini is an up and coming prospect who is waiting in the wings to replace Davis at first base. I saw him play last season in Frederick as he really impressed. He has power and hits for a good average plus he’s a decent defender. Schoop has changed his approach at the plate making him another feared hitter in the lineup.
Outfield
Michael Bourn
Adam Jones
Hyun Soo Kim
Nolan Reimold
Drew Stubbs
Mark Trumbo
Bourn got a second chance with the O’s and has been a solid contributor. He has speed so that should help in the long run. Jones is one of the best outfielders in game. He’s a leader and a proven veteran. Kim has been a nice surprise as he has come up in the clutch despite having a bad spring training. Stubbs is a solid bench player providing some depth. Trumbo absolutely demolishes balls as he mashed 47 home runs this season. Reimold will likely be used as a defensive player in this game.
Overall, this team should be better than they played near the end of the season. However, this is their time to shine and show why they led the division for as long as they did. On paper, they look like the best in the East, but whenever does paper translate into whats thrown on the field. The O’s hit lots of home runs (253), however, they went 39-42 on the road during the season including 4-6 at the Rogers Centre. They do have a good defense, but they rank just ahead of Toronto in that category.
Orioles Lineup
Adam Jones
Hyun Soo Kim LF
Manny Machado 3B
Mark Trumbo DH
Matt Wieters C
Chris Davis 1B
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Michael Bourn RF
JJ Hardy SS
Interesting Stats
Orioles hitters vs Toronto
Bourn: .286 1 RBI
Davis: .219 4 HRs 11 RBIs
Hardy: .192 1 HR 3 RBIs
Jones: .232 3 HRs 7 RBIs
Kim: .310 1 HR 3 RBIs
Machado: .288 4 HRs 11 RBIs
Schoop: .311 4 HRs 9 RBIs
Trumbo: .213 1 HR 7 RBIs
Wieters: .273 4 HRs 12 RBIs
Vs. Stroman
Best: Wieters (.416 2 HRs 6 RBIs
Worst: Hardy (.125)
Overall: .378 4 HRs 20 RBIs
Blue Jays
Pitchers
Marcus Stroman
Roberto Osuna
Jason Grilli
Joe Biagini
Ryan Tepera
Scott Feldman
Marco Estrada
Brett Cecil
Aaron Loup
Francisco Liriano
Osuna is a very good closer, but has not been all that solid of late. Grilli has lots of experience, but like Osuna, has struggled for a bit. Biagini has struggled of late as well, but he has been a nice surprise as a Rule 5 pick. Tepera, Feldman, Loup, and Cecil have all been solid this season, but Loup especially after he was sent down to the minors for a bit to work some things out. Estrada would most likely be used in long relief and Liriano could do the same or be used as a situational lefty.
Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA) gets the start tonight. He has pitched well in his last 13 starts (3.24 ERA in that span). However, his numbers against the Orioles is not very good as he is 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA against them this season. They pack a punch with their bats so Stroman will have a challenge on his hands.
Catchers
Russell Martin
Dioner Navarro
Martin is one of the best defensive catchers in the game, but he also can do some damage with the bat. Navarro was picked up mid-season and provides depth.
Infielders
Josh Donaldson
Troy Tulowitzki
Devon Travis
Edwin Encarnacion
Justin Smoak
Darwin Barney
Ryan Goins
Donaldson is an MVP candidate this year as he is regarded as one of the best players in the league. Tulowitzki is a very good shortstop as he hits for average, power, has some speed, and overall a good defensive player. Travis has been a solid player for them as he is good defensively and puts up quality at bats. Encarnacion is one of their best power threats. He can play first base, but is best being the designated hitter. Smoak is a left handed bat that will very likely play first base if they continue into the next round as he has a good glove. Barney is outstanding with his glove and has some speed as he looks to come in likely for defensive purposes. Goins is almost the same type of player as Travis except with more speed.
Outfielders
Kevin Pillar
Jose Bautista
Michael Saunders
Ezequiel Carrera
Melvin Upton Jr
Dalton Pompey
Pillar is one of the best defensive players in the game as he puts together Superman like highlights in the field. He is fun to watch with his glove. Bautista is one of the most feared sluggers in the game, but he also has a cannon of an arm in right field. Saunders is one of the most underrated players in the game who finally found his power stroke this season. Carrera is a speedy player who is also great with the glove. Upton Jr. was once a top prospect with his five tool caliber, however, he hasn’t lived up to the expectations. He has had a good season and could be valuable in this game. Pompey provides them with some speed off the bench probably in late game situations.
The Blue Jays have the edge in the rotation department (3.64 Team ERA over Baltimore’s 4.72) and can slug almost as much as them (221 home runs). With the raucous crowd and with the edge of home field advantage (46-35 at home in 2016), they have a little chip on their shoulder and are very confident going into this game against the Orioles. They also have hit the Birds well this season as Baltimore starters struggled to a 5.82 ERA against the Jays in 2016. Their lineup is very tough to navigate through. The Blue Jays struggled a little bit down the stretch, but they are a very good team as well.
Blue Jays lineup
1. Devon Travis 2B
2. Josh Donaldson 3B
3. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
4. Jose Bautista RF
5. Russell Martin C
6. Troy Tulowitzki SS
7. Michael Saunders DH
8. Kevin Pillar CF
9. Ezequiel Carrera LF
Interesting stats
Blue Jays hitters vs Baltimore
Bautista: .204 3 HRs 5 RBIs
Carrera: .314 2 HRs 3 RBIs 2 SBs
Donaldson: .254 4 HRs 12 RBIs
Encarnacion: .265 4 HRs 13 RBIs
Martin: .264 2 HRs 11 RBIs
Pillar: .247 1 HR 9 RBIs
Saunders: .397 7 HRs 15 RBIs
Travis: .238 2 HRs 11 RBIs
Tulowitzki: .245 3 HRs 9 RBIs
Vs. Tillman
Best: Tulowitzki (.400 2 HRs 3 RBIs)
Worst: Donaldson (.166 1 RBI)
Overall: .250 1 HR 10 RBIs
Prediction
This game is too evenly matched in my opinion. There are several factors in this game where the roof is open and the ball will be jumping a lot. The crowd will be a factor as they will be loud. Jays have the home field advantage. Orioles are more experienced with more veterans on the team. The last time I had to make my prediction in such an evenly matched Wild Card game, I went with my gut and that game was in 2014 between the Royals and Athletics. My gut said Royals and they won that game. As for tonight, I am going with my gut as well as I feel like the Orioles will win this one. If this becomes a battle of bullpens, Baltimore has the edge. Runs will be scored in this game and possibly a lot, but if Orioles get to their bullpen and Tillman has a solid outing, they are likely to win. So I have Baltimore moving on to face the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series.
