The Dodgers Need to Trade Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy
During the MLB winter meetings, news emerged from ESPN writer Buster Olney that the Dodgers are looking to move Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy. This news appears to be the clearest sign yet that Andrew Friedman is well aware of the Dodgers’ overfilled pool of starting pitchers which also coincides with the team’s inflated payroll. Offloading McCarthy and Kazmir would be a great way for the Dodgers to alleviate these two issues.
Last offseason, Scott Kazmir was signed to a 3 year/$48 million contract. The soon to be 33 year old was expected to help fill the hole left by the departure of Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke. Unfortunately, Kazmir could not find his footing throughout his first season in Los Angeles, recording a 4.56 ERA, 4.48 FIP, as well as 1.39 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine. The southpaw did go 10-6 while almost striking out a batter per inning, but his inability to consistently record quality starts and his injury problems at the end of the year left most of the organization with a bad taste in its mouth.
McCarthy, on the other hand, was in an entirely different situation. 2016 was the second year of a 4 year/$48 million contract he signed prior to the 2015 season. Coming off Tommy John surgery, McCarthy was able to return a little over a year after going under the knife. His return started off strong over his first few starts, but after a start in the moist, low oxygen environment of Coors Field, McCarthy completely lost control of his fastball before eventually landing on the disabled list. Over his 40 innings pitched (nine starts), McCarthy recorded a disappointing 4.95 ERA with 26 walks to 44 strikeouts. This was after coming off a debut season in Dodger blue where he posted a 5.87 ERA in his four starts before tearing his UCL.
Both McCarthy and Kazmir have the ability to regain their past form in 2017, but their age combined with the hefty sums they will be receiving makes them far more of a burden than an asset. To further confound the situation, Los Angeles has a multitude of young starting pitchers that are ready to step in to the rotation next season. If Andrew Friedman really wants to continue transitioning this team to a youth driven roster that is financially sustainable, McCarthy and Kazmir are going to need to be dealt.
It may be easy to get rid of two players in theory, but in reality it will be very hard to trade either pitcher without having to take on at least a portion of each contract. Kazmir is on track to earn $32 million over the next four seasons (his contract is deferred at $8 million per year starting in 2017) while McCarthy is on the hook for another $20 million through next season. The burden of paying mid-30s, injury prone, and high risk starting pitchers is high for any team, especially after the new CBA. Therefore, the front office will need to be willing to give up McCarthy and Kazmir for nothing if they want to completely erase their names from the payroll.
To put it simply, the Dodgers need to dump Kazmir and McCarthy. As of now, the opening day rotation would likely consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and one of McCarthy and Kazmir. This means that the Dodgers are going to be paying one of these two starters a lot of money to pitch out of the bullpen. Plus, their presence is blocking others such as Jose De Leon, Ross Stripling, Brock Stewart, Alex Wood, and Hyun-Jin Ryu from potentially being in the opening day rotation. A case could be made that any of those five would be a better option than McCarthy or Kazmir. Unfortunately, due to the money the Dodgers owe McCarthy and Kazmir, one of them will be starting every fifth day in Dodger blue if they are not traded before then.
The burden of McCarthy and Kazmir’s contracts limits the financial flexibility of Andrew Friedman. However, the damage those two could cause to the development of the Dodgers’ young starting pitchers may be even worse. Stewart, Stripling and De Leon are all ready for the major leagues. Stewart and JDL dominated the upper levels of the minor leagues while Stripling proved himself at the major league level for the vast majority of 2016. Sending all of those three to either the bullpen or the minor leagues could be detrimental to their development in ways that could hamper the Dodgers down the road. In addition, an argument can be made that all three are better starting pitchers than McCarthy and Kazmir right now (not to mention in a year or two).
These two aging starting pitchers have very little value to a Dodger team in the midst of a youth movement. Neither pitcher is all that effective anymore and they certainly are not getting any younger. On the flipside, the Dodgers have three pitchers in their mid-20s ready to contribute in a major league rotation right now. Sending them back to AAA would do them and the Dodgers no good as their development could stall and the major league team could be missing out on three quality starting pitchers.
On top of that, the Dodgers would also do well to take a significant chunk of money off the payroll. The team needs to resign Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner plus fill other holes, but with the team salary currently standing at $170 million, Los Angeles may not have enough money in the coffers to accomplish all of their offseason goals. Dumping McCarthy and Kazmir’s contracts would drop that number much closer to $150 million, increasing LA’s financial flexibility this offseason and in years to come.
It may be difficult to find a suitor, but the Dodgers need to do all they can to rid themselves of McCarthy and Kazmir. They are blocking the developments of three promising young starters and their contracts limit how much Friedman can upgrade the roster. The Dodgers clearly made two big blunders by giving each player a large contract in free agency the past two years, but the Dodgers need to ensure they learn from their mistakes and get rid of these two before they can hinder the team’s performance any further. Even if the Dodgers are forced to dump each player for nothing, the front office should be doing all they can to make sure Kazmir and McCarthy are not on the 2017 opening day roster.
