Brewers Starting Pitching Preview
This is the last team I am doing a preview on for the upcoming baseball season, just a few days away from when pitchers and catchers report, and it is the team I know most about, the Milwaukee Brewers. I will be dividing this up into five sections: starters, bullpen, catchers, infielders, outfielders; and then analyzing who I think should be in the big leagues, and what the future looks like for each position. This is the blog on the starting rotation, a group that performed better than expected once it sorted itself out. This year, the depth looks to be unmatched by any team, although there are no clear-cut future pieces currently in the rotation. Here are the players.
LOCKS: Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Jimmy Nelson
It's hard to find out who the locks really are for the Brewers' rotation, as there are as many as 13 guys trying to get into the starting rotation this upcoming season, along with two additional top five prospects who are on the way. In other words, there aren't enough games to try everybody out, although it's pretty safe to say that the two best pitchers last season were Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, both of whom didn't start the year in the rotation. Guerra was the rookie of the year for the Brewers, and really came out of nowhere to get a 2.81 ERA in 20 appearances along with a 9-3 record. Zach Davies' rise was somewhat expected, and he seems ready to be in the rotation all year in 2017. Jimmy Nelson wasn't the same pitcher he was back in 2015, but he has earned a spot and a second chance to prove that he belongs in the rotation long term. It's not like we are contending anyways.
OTHER COMPETITORS: Wily Peralta, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson, Tommy Milone, Taylor Jungmann
In my opinion, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson and definitely Tommy Milone have no business being in the rotation in 2017. Those of you who argue that GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell suppport them are foolish, since rational managers and GM's aren't going to publicly bash anybody on the team. Garza virtually has to start the season in the rotation, unless he is awful again in Spring Training, but the hope for him is that he performs well enough in April and May that we can trade him in time for Josh Hader and/or Jorge Lopez to come up and take his spot. Tommy Milone is a decent pitcher, but he isn't the answer long term or short term, and even at his best he isn't worth giving up a top 10 prospect for. As far as Chase Anderson goes, second half Chase Anderson is worth a decent haul, but first half Chase Anderson (which, if he repeats his first half success, won't be able to be traded) has no chance of bringing back any value.
The cases of Peralta and Jungmann are interesting. Peralta has been rumored as a potential closer candidate, and that would solve the rotation logjam (barring injuries) that has six "real" candidates for five spots. If Peralta can get back to his 2014 success as a starter or find success as a late inning reliever, he may be one of our three most valuable trade assets. Jungmann, however, went from a hot, up and coming talent who had his jersey available for sale in Spring Training, to Double-A. Falling from Colorado Springs isn't surprising, since it is even tougher to pitch there than in Coors Field, and he did find success. Hopefully he won't be as bad as he was last year in the big leagues, but if he is, I'm officially declaring him to be a bust.
PROSPECT CANDIDATES: Josh Hader, Jorge Lopez, Brent Suter, Aaron Wilkerson, Brandon Woodruff
Unless Josh Hader throws 30 shutout innings in a row in Spring Training, I don't think he has that realistic of a chance to make his major league debut in April. Expect him to be the first guy to come up, though, after someone ahead of him on the depth chart gets hurt or traded. Jorge Lopez had decent big league success in 2015, but the high altitude of Colorado Springs got to him in 2016 and he never really recovered. Brent Suter was the best pitcher (for a full season) in Triple-A, and he earned his chance to make a couple of starts and relief appearances with the Brewers. He is the dark horse candidate to make the rotation. Brandon Woodruff was the minor league pitcher of the year for the Brewers, and expect him to add depth to Triple-A. Non-roster invitee Aaron Wilkerson was brought in from the Red Sox in the Aaron Hill trade, but I don't think he has a real shot of making the roster.
FUTURE PROSPECTS: Luis Ortiz, Phil Bickford
These are the two best pitching prospects on the team after Josh Hader, although neither of them are going to be in Spring Training. Phil Bickford received a drug related suspension, and will miss time in the first half of 2017. Hopefully that won't derail his career with the Brewers, as he was the key piece in the Will Smith trade. Luis Ortiz was the other main guy in the Jonathan Lucroy-Jeremy Jeffress trade, and he is likely to start out in Double-A.
PROJECTED 2017 OPENING DAY ROTATION: Guerra, Davies, Nelson, Garza, Anderson
I really like the idea of trying Wily Peralta in the bullpen assuming those other five don't have to deal with injuries, and with Josh Hader being ready to go the second somebody goes down. I think our 2019 rotation looks really promising, with Davies, Nelson, Hader, Lopez, Ortiz and Bickford all being available in the rotation, plus whatever veterans we have. I think this is a middle-of-the-pack group if everybody performs at their average abilities, and if Guerra continues his dominance and Josh Hader comes up and performs like the top left handed prospect in the game (with no big league experience) should, it could clearly be a top half group. The rotation is not the weakness of this Brewers' team.
