NBA Preview: New York Knicks
30 teams to cover, and already onto the third team in the Atlantic Division, the New York Knicks. Recently, but not too recently, the Knicks were the #2 seed in the East, defeating the end of the old Celtics' teams in the postseason, and shooting the lights out of the gym. Since then, the Knicks have failed to make the playoffs, have turned the regime over to the great Phil Jackson, and now are one of the NBA's two super-teams (the other being Golden State), according to new arrival Derrick Rose. I don't know about all that, and I don't even know if this is a playoff caliber roster yet with how deep the East is, but it's definitely going to be an intriguing season in the Madison Square Garden this year.
ADDITIONS: PG Derrick Rose (Trade-Chicago), G Justin Holiday (Trade-Chicago), C Joakim Noah (Chicago), SG Courtney Lee (Charlotte), PG Brandon Jennings (Orlando), Maurice Ndour (International)
SUBTRACTIONS: SG Arron Afflalo (Sacramento), SG Langston Galloway (New Orleans), PF Kevin Seraphin (Indiana), F Derrick Williams (Miami), C Robin Lopez (Trade-Chicago), PG Jerian Grant (Trade-Chicago), PG Jose Calderon (Trade-Chicago, then traded to LA Lakers in separate deal), C Lou Amundson (free agent), SF Cleanthony Early (free agent)
RESIGNED: SF Lance Thomas, SG Sasha Vujacic
Overall, a relatively busy offseason for the Knicks, and putting the roster together you can definitely understand why the Knicks' faithful believe this is a playoff team and why the upside here is relatively high. Of course, the offseason is contingent on everybody staying healthy, as Rose, Noah and Jennings are all injury prone players and likely make up a good chunk of the Knicks' rotation. A healthy Derrick Rose next to SF Carmelo Anthony is important, and although Rose may never put up an MVP type season again, a healthy Rose is still an elite player and potentially an All-Star. Joakim Noah is also an upgrade over Robin Lopez on the defensive end, and offensively his passing game and hustle plays are important as well. Courtney Lee is one of the better 3 & D guys in the game, and should help the Knicks make a formidable starting five. Another important note is the Knicks did not lose too much, and from what they did lose, they made a net gain at that position (i.e. Noah is an improvement over Lopez).
PLAYER TO WATCH: There is not a ton of intriguing players on this roster, outside of can they stay healthy for a whole season, so I'll go with PF Kristaps Porzingis here, as I feel he is worth mentioning at some point. He is going into his second year this season, and last year he was drafted with the fourth pick and booed once the selection was made. He wound up being the second best player on the team after Carmelo Anthony, and is a key hope for the future of the Knicks. He led the team in blocks last season, and was second in rebounding and scoring. It will be interesting to see if he develops even more this season, and should feel less pressure with the addition of talent around him.
BIGGEST CONCERN: Depth. This team has been put together with a bunch of injury-prone players taking on major roles. Noah, Rose and Jennings especially, but even Carmelo Anthony misses stretches once in a while. As you will see with the rough depth chart I list out later, the Knicks really are going to rely on eight or so players, including the aforementioned players. Should one go down for an extended stretch, the Knicks may not be able to overcome it since the East has thirteen teams vying for eight playoff spots, and ten of them could finish anywhere from the fourth seed to thirteenth.
BIGGEST UNKNOWN: I'm going to stick to the depth issue, but turn it in a more positive light. Who on the Knicks after the top 6 will step up? Last year, Lance Thomas had a nice season earning him a bigger payday than he probably has earned so far, but after him and Jennings on the bench, there is a major drop off. C Kyle O'Quinn will likely get some big minutes, and has shown flashes in the past. SG Sasha Vujacic is old, and likely will play a role similar to that of last year. G Justin Holiday has done some nice things on occasion, but has never really strung anything together. Then, you have a group of camp invitee-types who you don't know what you will get, including C Willy Hernangomez, second year pro SF JP Tokoto, and undrafted free agent SG Ron Baker. The Knicks will need some players in that group to step up this season.
STARTING FIVE: C Joakim Noah, PF Kristaps Porzingis, SF Carmelo Anthony, SG Courtney Lee, PG Derrick Rose
ROTATIONAL PIECES: PG Brandon Jennings, SF Lance Thomas, C Kyle O'Quinn, SG Justin Holiday, SG Sasha Vujacic
FILLING OUT THE ROSTER: C Willy Hernangomez, SG Ron Baker, SF JP Tokoto, C Marshall Plumlee, G Chasson Randle
PREDICTION: See what I mean about the drop-off? There is too big of a talent gap here for injuries to happen, and if they do, it's pretty much the same Knicks as usual. With these exercises, I usually take injuries out of the equation, but with so many key players who are injury prone, I can't assume someone won't get hurt. That conjecture takes about three to five wins off the table for the Knicks at least, and that is likely enough to bump them out of the playoffs. I think if everything goes swimmingly, they are the fifth seed. But a more realistic projection is around 39 wins and the ninth seed.
